Core Viewpoint - Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S reported a decline in net sales and EBITDA margin for the second quarter of 2025, while reaffirming its full-year expectations despite challenging market conditions [1][5][8]. Financial Performance - Reported net sales for Q2 2025 were DKK 2.4 billion, reflecting an organic net sales growth of -4% [1][7]. - EBITDA before special items was DKK 499 million, with an EBITDA margin of 21.1%, down from 24.5% in the previous year [1][7]. - Free cash flow before acquisitions was DKK 119 million, compared to DKK 177 million in the same quarter last year [7]. - Adjusted EPS for Q2 2025 was DKK 3.3, down from DKK 4.1 year-on-year [7]. Market Dynamics - The addition of the Mac Baren business positively impacted reported net sales, while exchange rate fluctuations had a negative effect [2]. - Organic net sales growth was flat when excluding the discontinuation of ZYN distribution in the US, which contributed to a -3% decline [2]. - The product categories Handmade Cigars and Machine-Rolled Cigars & Smoking Tobacco showed recovery, and the nicotine pouch brand XQS continued to deliver double-digit growth [2]. Strategic Outlook - The EBITDA margin for the first half of 2025 was 18.8%, down from 21.2% in the previous year, influenced by product mix, market conditions, and investments to regain market share [3][5]. - The company aims to deliver free cash flow of DKK 800-1,000 million before acquisitions for the full year [5]. - The financial expectations for the full year 2025 remain unchanged, with reported net sales projected between DKK 9.1-9.5 billion and an EBITDA margin of 18-22% [8].

Core Insights - Scandinavian Tobacco Group reported a 1.3% increase in net sales for Q1 2025, reaching DKK 2.0 billion, but experienced a negative organic net sales growth of 8.8% [1][7] - The company adjusted its full-year 2025 expectations due to increased tariffs and a weaker U.S. dollar, projecting reported net sales between DKK 9.1 billion and DKK 9.5 billion [5][10] Financial Performance - EBITDA before special items decreased by 5.3% to DKK 317 million, with an EBITDA margin of 16.1%, down from 17.2% in the previous year [1][7] - Free cash flow before acquisitions was DKK 156 million, a significant improvement from DKK -126 million in the same quarter last year [7] - Adjusted EPS for Q1 2025 was DKK 1.5, down from DKK 1.8 [7] Market Dynamics - The growth in reported net sales was primarily driven by the acquisition of the Mac Baren business and strong performance in the XQS nicotine pouch brand [2] - Organic net sales decline was attributed to reduced consumption of handmade cigars in the U.S. and the discontinuation of online ZYN distribution [2] - The U.S. market constitutes approximately 45% of the Group's net sales, and the depreciation of the U.S. dollar has negatively impacted reported figures [6] Adjusted Expectations - The full-year EBITDA margin expectation has been revised to a range of 18-22%, down from 20-23% [8][10] - Free cash flow for the full year is now projected at DKK 0.8-1.0 billion, narrowed from DKK 0.8-1.1 billion [9][10] - Adjusted EPS expectations have been revised downward to a range of DKK 10-13 per share [10] Strategic Focus - The company aims to protect market shares and cash flow amidst increased uncertainty in consumer sentiment and retailer inventory decisions [5][11] - Ongoing integration of Mac Baren and development of updated strategies are highlighted as key priorities [11]