菲莫国际：提出三年规划，聚焦新烟成长 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 08 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业事项点评 [Table_StockAndRank] 轻工制造 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 李晨 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525060001 邮箱：lichen1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 菲莫国际：提出三年规划，聚焦新烟成长 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 08 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [事件：菲莫国际发布 Table_Summary ummary] ] 2025 年报。25 年收入达 406.5 亿美元（同比+ ...

菲莫国际：提出三年规划，聚焦新烟成长 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 08 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业事项点评 [Table_StockAndRank] 轻工制造 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 李晨 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525060001 邮箱：lichen1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 菲莫国际：提出三年规划，聚焦新烟成长 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 08 日 HNB 全球份额维持高位，日本竞争加剧。公司全年 HNB 销量达 1551 亿 支（同比+11.0%），全球市占率约 76%（倒算全球行业规模 25 年超 200 ...

CFO Emmanuel Babeau said organic net revenue increased 6.5% in 2025, or 7.9% excluding what he described as a “technical Indonesia impact.” Organic operating income rose 10.6% with 140 basis points of organic margin expansion. In dollar terms, adjusted operating income grew 11.8% to $16.4 billion, and adjusted diluted EPS rose 14.2% at constant currency and 15% in dollar terms to $7.54. Babeau noted EPS landed at the high end of the company’s prior guidance range despite a lower-than-expected currency tailw ...

We accomplished this through strong pricing, portfolio resilience, and disciplined execution, with Marlborough reaching a historic high share. Managing this business responsibly enables us to invest boldly in better alternatives and sustain our smoke-free momentum. Together, these factors enabled us to deliver 15% adjusted diluted EPS growth in dollar terms, the strongest growth since 2011, excluding the pandemic recovery year of 2021. This reflects currency-neutral growth of 14% well above our expectations ...

Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 06, 2026 09:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsEmmanuel Babeau - CFOEric Serotta - Executive Director for US Beverages, Tobacco, and Household ProductsJacek Olczak - Group CEOJames Bushnell - VP of Investor Relations and Financial CommunicationConference Call ParticipantsBonnie Herzog - Managing Director and Veteran AnalystDamian McNeela - Director and Senior Analyst of Consumer StaplesFaham Baig - Global Tobacco Analyst and Executive DirectorGe ...

Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 06, 2026 09:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsEmmanuel Babeau - CFOJacek Olczak - Group CEOJames Bushnell - VP of Investor Relations and Financial CommunicationConference Call ParticipantsGerald Pascarelli - Senior Analyst of Beverages, Tobacco, and CannabisMatt Smith - Senior Analyst of Consumer StaplesOperatorday and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Philip Morris International, Inc., 2025 fourth quarter results conference call. At th ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, total net revenues exceeded $40 billion, with 41.5% or nearly $17 billion generated from smoke-free products [8][11] - Adjusted diluted EPS grew by 15% in dollar terms, marking the strongest growth since 2011, excluding the pandemic recovery year of 2021 [5][11] - Organic top-line growth was +6.5%, with adjusted operating income growth at +10.6%, reflecting +140 basis points of organic margin expansion [11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Smoke-free product volumes grew by 12.8%, with organic smoke-free gross profit growth of 18.7% [3][12] - IQOS shipments grew by approximately 11%, with a notable acceleration in the fourth quarter [3][15] - ZYN shipments in the U.S. increased by 37%, contributing significantly to smoke-free product growth [5][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The international business generated the majority of total PMI organic net revenue growth, with smoke-free products leading the way [5][19] - In Japan, the heat-not-burn category surpassed 50% of total industry volumes, driven by IQOS [25][26] - The U.S. market for nicotine pouches saw ZYN capturing around 50% of category growth, with a volume share of 61.5% [30][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on a multi-category strategy, expanding its smoke-free product offerings and geographic reach [4][9] - There is a strong emphasis on innovation and digitalization to support long-term growth [9][43] - The company targets a leverage ratio of close to 2x by the end of 2026, indicating a focus on financial flexibility and shareholder returns [7][44] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving strong growth despite transitory headwinds, with a forecast of 5%-7% organic net revenue growth for 2026 [36][37] - The company anticipates continued strong cash generation, with operating cash flow projected at around $13.5 billion [38][43] - Management highlighted the importance of navigating regulatory environments and enhancing brand equity for future growth [32][33] Other Important Information - The company achieved a historic high share for Marlboro, reaching 11% of the international category, excluding China [34][5] - The number of legal-age consumers of smoke-free products reached an estimated 43.5 million, reflecting broad-based growth across categories [20][19] - The company is committed to delivering superior shareholder value, with a target dividend payout ratio of around 75% of adjusted diluted EPS [44][45] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you expand on the reacceleration in smoke-free volume growth compared to the 2026 growth guidance? - Management indicated that the acceleration is expected due to tax changes in Japan and competitive dynamics in the U.S. market [49][50] Question: How are you thinking in terms of IQOS, HTU shipments, and IMS for 2026? - Management noted that while Japan faces challenges, other markets like Italy and Germany are showing strong growth, contributing positively to IQOS's outlook [58][62] Question: What are the key growth drivers for the upcoming year? - Management emphasized the importance of ZYN and IQOS, along with ongoing investments in marketing and innovation, as key drivers for growth [72][75]

2025 Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year Results February 6, 2026 Introduction • A glossary of terms as well as adjustments, other calculations and reconciliations to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP measures for non-GAAP financial measures cited in this presentation are available in Exhibit 99.2 to the company's Form 8-K dated February 6, 2026 and on our Investor Relations website with additional non- GAAP reconciliations available at the end of this presentation 2 Forward-Looking and Cautionary Statements ...

Core Insights - Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is expected to show growth in both revenue and earnings for Q4 2025, with revenue estimates at approximately $10.4 billion, reflecting a 7.3% increase year-over-year [1][9] - The earnings consensus remains steady at $1.67 per share, indicating a 7.7% increase from the previous year [2][9] Revenue and Earnings Performance - The anticipated revenue growth is supported by the company's shift towards a smoke-free product portfolio, which accounted for over 42% of gross profit in Q3 2025, driven by strong sales of IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV [3][9] - Smoke-free shipment volumes rose by 16.6%, and organic smoke-free revenues increased by 13.9%, indicating a favorable product mix and pricing strategy [4] Margin and Profitability - Pricing discipline and cost efficiencies have been significant contributors to margin expansion, with notable adjusted operating margin growth in Q3, supported by strong gross margins across both smoke-free and combustible categories [5] - Ongoing productivity initiatives and benefits from smoke-free growth are expected to continue supporting profitability, despite high commercial investments [5] Challenges and Headwinds - The company faces challenges from declining combustible cigarette volumes and foreign exchange volatility, with cigarette shipment volumes decreasing at a low-single-digit rate in Q3 [6] - These structural industry pressures are likely to persist into Q4, potentially impacting overall performance [6] Earnings Prediction Model - The current earnings prediction model does not indicate a strong likelihood of an earnings beat for Philip Morris, with an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [7]

Key Takeaways MO generated over $11B in 2025 in smokeable OI as pricing power offset a roughly 9.5% volume decline.PM's smoke-free products made up 41% of net revenues in Q3 2025, with shipments up 16.6%.PM's IQOS, ZYN and VEEV drove record smoke-free gross profit of $3.1B amid global adoption gains.For investors evaluating the tobacco sector, the decision often narrows to two industry leaders: Altria Group, Inc. (MO) and Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) . Although both companies derive significant rev ...