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McDonald's Stock Before Q2 Earnings: Buy Now or Wait for Results?
ZACKSยท 2025-08-04 17:35
Core Viewpoint - McDonald's Corporation is expected to report second-quarter 2025 results on August 6, with earnings per share (EPS) estimated at $3.15, reflecting a 6.1% year-over-year increase, and revenues projected at $6.71 billion, indicating 3.5% growth from the previous year [1][3][7]. Earnings Performance - In the last reported quarter, McDonald's earnings exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.1%, with a mixed performance over the past four quarters: two beats, one miss, and one meet [1][2]. - The average earnings surprise over the last four quarters is a miss of 0.2% [2]. Estimate Revisions - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter EPS has risen from $3.14 to $3.15 in the last 30 days, indicating positive sentiment [3]. Earnings Prediction Model - The company's Earnings ESP stands at +0.43%, and it currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting a favorable outlook for an earnings beat [4]. Factors Influencing Performance - McDonald's growth in Q2 is likely driven by strong global comparable sales, consistent customer traffic, menu innovation, and digital engagement [6][7]. - Tailored marketing campaigns and partnerships with celebrities have attracted both loyal and new customers, particularly in international markets [7]. - Digital channels and delivery services have played a significant role in increasing sales and customer engagement [9]. Operational Efficiency - The company's focus on operational efficiency, supply chain optimization, and a franchised model has helped stabilize margins despite rising costs [10]. - Pricing actions taken earlier in the year have been effective in maintaining profitability without significantly impacting customer traffic [10]. Market Performance - Over the past year, McDonald's stock has increased by 12.8%, underperforming the S&P 500's 20.8% gain and the restaurant industry's 8.7% growth [12]. - Competitors like Darden Restaurants, Starbucks, and Yum China have shown higher stock gains, indicating a competitive market landscape [12]. Valuation - McDonald's stock is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 23.56, which is lower than the industry average of 24.72, suggesting a potential valuation opportunity [16]. Investment Considerations - While the company shows steady performance and benefits from digital growth and operational efficiencies, caution is advised for new investors due to macroeconomic headwinds and recent underperformance relative to broader market indices [18][19].