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Disney Stock Is Dropping. More Downside Risk?
Forbes· 2025-11-14 14:20
Core Insights - Walt Disney's stock has experienced a significant decline of 7.7% in one day following mixed Q4 FY'25 earnings, primarily due to larger-than-expected declines in its linear TV business, which remains crucial for overall revenues and profits despite growth in the streaming sector [1][3] Company Overview - Walt Disney is valued at $194 billion with $95 billion in revenue, currently trading at $107.61 [3] - The company reported a revenue growth of 5.0% over the last 12 months and an operating margin of 14.8% [3] - The liquidity metrics show a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.22 and a Cash to Assets ratio of 0.03, indicating moderate operational performance [3][4] Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at a P/E multiple of 16.8 and a P/EBIT multiple of 15.1, suggesting a fair valuation [8] - Historical performance indicates that the stock has dropped over 30% in less than 30 days only once since 2010, after which it rebounded by 115% within a year [8] Historical Performance Analysis - DIS stock has seen a decline of 60.7% from a peak of $201.91 on March 8, 2021, to $79.32 on October 4, 2023, compared to a 25.4% decline for the S&P 500 [9] - The stock decreased 42.1% from a peak of $148.20 on January 2, 2020, to $85.76 on March 23, 2020, but fully rebounded by November 24, 2020 [9] - A previous drop of 16.3% from a peak of $115.84 on April 27, 2017, to $96.93 on October 12, 2017, was also followed by a complete recovery by August 6, 2018 [9] Market Resilience Considerations - The analysis suggests that if DIS stock were to drop another 20-30% to $75, investors may need to evaluate their positions based on historical performance during economic downturns [5][4] - The stock has underperformed relative to the S&P 500 during various economic downturns, raising questions about its resilience [5]