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迈瑞医疗 - A 股_2025 年第三季度业绩略低于预期,但国内复苏在路上;维持超配
2025-11-07 01:28
Summary of Mindray's 3Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Mindray (300760.SZ) - **Industry**: Healthcare, specifically medical technology Key Financial Results - **3Q25 Revenue**: RMB 9.1 billion, up 2% YoY [2][10] - **3Q25 Net Profit**: RMB 2.5 billion, down 19% YoY [2][10] - **IVD Sales**: Decreased by 3% YoY [2][10] - **PMLS Sales**: Grew by 3% YoY [2][10] - **Medical Imaging Sales**: Held steady [2][10] Core Insights - **Domestic Recovery**: Revenue growth in the domestic market is expected to improve in 4Q25 compared to 3Q25, despite ongoing pricing pressures from volume-based procurement (VBP) [2][10][17] - **International Sales**: Remain strong, driven by recovery in emerging markets and premium product expansion [2][10][17] - **Margin Pressure**: Expected to persist into 2026 due to VBP impacts and increased operating expenses from investments in new business segments [2][10][16][17] Management Guidance - **4Q25 Expectations**: Management anticipates better YoY revenue growth than in 3Q25, with a forecast of domestic business growth at 40%+/high-single-digit for 4Q25/2026E [2][10][17] - **Long-term Growth Engines**: Minimally invasive surgery (MIS) and AI-integrated hospital solutions are seen as potential growth drivers [2][10][17] Adjustments to Forecasts - **Sales and Margin Forecasts**: FY25-27E sales and margin forecasts have been trimmed by 5-9% due to weaker-than-expected performance in IVD and equipment businesses [2][10][16] - **Price Target Adjustment**: Price target lowered from RMB 280 to RMB 274 [2][10][11][16] Valuation Metrics - **Market Cap**: Approximately $36.1 billion [9] - **Price Performance**: Year-to-date decline of 16.9% [9] - **Adjusted EPS**: Expected to be RMB 8.44 for FY25E, down from RMB 9.91 [6][9] Risks to Investment - **Downside Risks**: Include potential ASP pressure from VBP, delays in product development, overseas market expansion risks, and reputational risks related to product quality and regulatory compliance [21][10] Conclusion - **Investment Rating**: Maintain Overweight (OW) rating, with Mindray identified as a top pick in the China medtech sector [2][10][17]