Core Viewpoint - Ardagh Group has successfully reached a comprehensive recapitalization agreement with its major financial stakeholders, significantly reducing its debt and extending bond maturities to 2030 while injecting new capital into the business [1][2][3]. Recapitalization Transaction Highlights - The recapitalization transaction is expected to be completed by September 30, 2025, pending regulatory approvals and customary conditions [3]. - Upon completion, holders of senior unsecured notes (SUNs) will become majority shareholders, receiving 92.5% of the equity, while holders of the PIK notes will receive 7.5% [4]. - Senior secured notes (SSNs) holders will exchange their notes for new second lien paper maturing in December 2030, backed by a security package of all assets [4]. Financial Impact - The transaction will involve a debt-for-equity swap of SUNs and PIK notes, totaling $4.3 billion in obligations as of June 30, 2025, which will strengthen the balance sheet and reduce the debt burden [6]. - A provision of $1.5 billion in new capital will be introduced, maturing in December 2030, to refinance existing debt and fund corporate purposes [6]. - Existing bond maturities for Ardagh Glass Packaging will be extended by over four years to December 2030, enhancing liquidity [6]. Ownership and Stakeholder Involvement - Ownership of Ardagh Group will transfer to a syndicate of long-term investors, including major financial institutions and funds, who will also provide the new capital [6]. - The transaction support agreement (TSA) has been established with key stakeholders to facilitate the recapitalization process [8]. Financial Performance Outlook - The company projects Adjusted EBITDA from Glass Packaging to be approximately $660 million for FY25, increasing to $700 million in FY26 and $760 million in FY27, indicating a gradual improvement in global EBITDA margins [13]. - Capital expenditures are expected to be around $300 million in FY25, increasing to $400 million annually in FY26 and FY27 [13].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales increased by 49% to $1.9 billion, driven by the acquisition of S and P EMEA and strong volume in the U.S. business [6][22] - Adjusted EBITDA rose by 25% to $328 million, with adjusted EBITDA margin improving by 101 basis points to 17.2% [6][22] - Adjusted EPS was $1.37, reflecting a 7% year-over-year increase, impacted by higher interest expenses [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consumer Packaging segment saw a 115% growth in adjusted EBITDA, attributed to a 10% volume mix gain in the U.S. metal business and the acquisition of EVOSA [7][23] - Industrial segment adjusted EBITDA increased by 15% to $113 million, despite a 2% decline in sales to $588 million due to lower volumes [24][25] - All Other segment sales were flat at $95 million, with adjusted EBITDA declining by 8% [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - EMEA sales were impacted by a delay in the European vegetable packaging season, with approximately 40% of sales being seasonal [15][16] - Demand for pet food and certain premium food categories remained resilient despite macroeconomic pressures [16] - The company expects a solid vegetable harvest in the third quarter, which is typically the strongest quarter [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on businesses where it can leverage advanced material science and technology to drive competitive advantage [9][10] - Recent divestitures, including Thermoform and Flexible Packaging, are aimed at reallocating capital to core businesses [10][11] - The company is targeting $100 million in cost savings through synergies from the S and P EMEA acquisition by 2026 [12][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged global macroeconomic pressures affecting consumer and industrial demand, but remains optimistic about strong performance in the Consumer segment [6][28] - The company is maintaining its full-year guidance for net sales between $7.75 billion and $8 billion, with adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion [28][29] - Management is focused on controlling costs and reducing leverage while creating long-term value for shareholders [36] Other Important Information - The company has invested $188 million in capital for the first half of 2025, with expectations to reach $360 million by year-end [30] - The integration of S and P EMEA is progressing well, with projected synergies of $40 million to $50 million by the end of the year [12][19] - The company is preparing for the sale of ThermoSafe, with expectations to use proceeds to further reduce net leverage [11][12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the volume run rate across major businesses and expectations for SMT EMEA? - Management indicated slight volume declines in Q2 but expects mid to upper single-digit increases in Q3 due to a late start in the vegetable harvest [41][48] Question: What are the reasons for the relatively light incremental margin in the consumer segment? - Management attributed the light margin to seasonal mix impacts and noted that the business is performing well despite volume shortfalls [50][51] Question: How will stranded costs improve moving forward? - Management expects improvements in stranded costs in the second half of the year and is focused on eliminating these costs [61][63] Question: What are the expectations for EBITDA in the EVO business? - Management confirmed expectations for year-over-year EBITDA growth in the EVO business, with significant incremental business opportunities identified [68][70] Question: How are tariffs impacting the business? - Management acknowledged that tariffs are a concern but noted that they are managing the impact effectively and expect to recover costs on the P&L side [76][78] Question: Can you clarify the factors affecting revised guidance? - Management indicated that the lower EPS guidance is primarily due to higher-than-anticipated interest expenses, while revenue and EBITDA guidance remains strong [102][104]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year increase in earnings for Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) due to higher revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected on July 24, with a consensus estimate of $0.08 per share, reflecting a +33.3% year-over-year change, and revenues projected at $1.35 billion, up 7.3% from the previous year [3][2]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating stability in analyst assessments [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model shows a positive Earnings ESP of +6.67% for Ardagh Metal Packaging, suggesting analysts are optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Ardagh Metal Packaging exceeded expectations with earnings of $0.02 per share against an estimate of $0.01, resulting in a +100.00% surprise [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [14]. Investment Considerations - While a potential earnings beat is a positive indicator, other factors may also influence stock movement, making it essential to consider the broader context [15][17].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales increased by 31% to $1.7 billion, driven by favorable pricing and the full quarter impact of the S&P EMEA acquisition [12][13] - Adjusted EBITDA rose by 38% to $338 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin improvement of 170 basis points to 16.6% [13][19] - Adjusted earnings per share increased by 23% to $1.30, primarily due to strong productivity and favorable price-cost performance [12][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consumer Packaging segment saw a remarkable 127% growth in adjusted EBITDA, attributed to the EVOSYS acquisition and strong volume mix [6][14] - Industrial Packaging segment's adjusted EBITDA improved by 6%, despite a low single-digit decline in volume [6][15] - All Other business segment reported sales of $85 million and adjusted EBITDA of $14 million, affected by the divestiture of Protective Solutions [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American metal packaging business achieved a 10% organic volume mix improvement, with aerosols up approximately 25% [10][34] - EMEA metal packaging adjusted EBITDA increased by about 23% due to productivity savings and a favorable price-cost environment [10][14] - European market conditions were slower than expected, impacting metal packaging volumes [10][34] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on fewer, bigger businesses, enhancing its core sustainable packaging platforms and reinvesting in higher return opportunities [11][12] - Integration of the Ebiosis acquisition is underway, with expectations of achieving $40 million in synergy savings by 2025 [9][20] - The company aims to increase long-term profitability and return capital to shareholders, reaffirming its commitment to dividend payments [24][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating economic uncertainties, highlighting the resilience of the consumer packaging business during economic stress [22][23] - The company anticipates continued strength in legacy businesses and expects adjusted EPS to be in the range of $6 to $6.2 for the full year [18][19] - Operating cash flow is projected between $800 million to $900 million, with free cash flow between $450 million to $550 million [19][27] Other Important Information - The company has reduced net leverage to just under four times net debt to adjusted EBITDA, using proceeds from the TFP sale to significantly reduce debt [17][18] - The company was recognized as one of America's Climate Leaders for 2025, reflecting its commitment to reducing carbon emissions [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more detail on volume performance by region and segment? - Management noted mid-single-digit growth globally in the consumer segment, with North America slightly up and Europe down [30][31] Question: Are there any changes in purchasing behavior or supply chain issues? - Management indicated minimal changes in purchasing behavior, with some stagnation due to a major customer's acquisition [40][41] Question: What are the opportunities in managing the global network? - The company is evaluating the best locations for production to provide cost-effective solutions across its global operations [46][47] Question: What is the outlook for the ThermoSafe business? - Management is pleased with the performance and expects to make a decision on its future by the end of the year [64] Question: What is the current status of net adjusted debt post the TFP pay down? - Management confirmed net adjusted debt is expected to be under four times by year-end, with a target of 3 to 3.3 times by the end of 2026 [68] Question: What are the expectations for OCC costs and URB price increases? - OCC costs are expected to average between $90 and $95 in the second half of the year, with URB price increases anticipated to benefit the company in the second half [70][71]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales increased by 31% to $1.7 billion, driven by favorable pricing and the full quarter impact of the S&P EMEA acquisition [12][13] - Adjusted EBITDA rose by 38% to $338 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin improvement of 170 basis points to 16.6% [13][18] - Adjusted earnings per share increased by 23% to $1.30, primarily due to strong productivity and favorable price-cost performance [12][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consumer Packaging segment saw a remarkable 127% growth in adjusted EBITDA, attributed to the EVOSYS acquisition and strong volume mix [6][14] - Industrial Packaging segment experienced a 6% increase in adjusted EBITDA, despite a low single-digit decline in volume [15][18] - All Other business reported sales of $85 million and adjusted EBITDA of $14 million, affected by the divestiture of Protective Solutions [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American metal packaging business achieved a 10% organic volume mix improvement, with strong growth in aerosols and food cans [10][36] - EMEA metal packaging adjusted EBITDA increased by approximately 23%, driven by productivity savings and a favorable price-cost environment [10][14] - Industrial sales decreased by 6% to $558 million, impacted by lower volumes and unfavorable currency translation [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on fewer, bigger businesses, enhancing its core sustainable packaging platforms and reinvesting in higher return opportunities [11][12] - Integration of the Ebiosis acquisition is underway, with expectations of achieving $40 million in synergy savings by 2025 [9][20] - The company aims to increase long-term profitability and return capital to shareholders, reaffirming its commitment to dividend payments [24][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating economic uncertainties, highlighting the resilience of the consumer packaging business during economic stress [22][23] - The company anticipates continued strength in legacy businesses and expects adjusted EPS to be in the range of $6 to $6.20 for the full year [18][26] - Management noted that the integration of the metal packaging business is progressing well, with strong customer interest in global capabilities [56][57] Other Important Information - The company has reduced its net leverage to just under four times net debt to adjusted EBITDA, using proceeds from the TFP sale to significantly reduce debt [17][70] - Operating cash flow is projected to be between $800 million to $900 million, with free cash flow expected between $450 million to $550 million [19][26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more detail on volume performance by region and segment? - Management indicated mid-single-digit growth globally in the consumer segment, with North America slightly up and Europe down [31][32] Question: Are there any changes in purchasing behavior or supply chain issues? - Management noted minimal changes in purchasing behavior, with some stagnation due to a major customer's acquisition [43][44] Question: What are the opportunities in managing the global network? - Management is evaluating the best locations for production across their global platform to optimize costs and market share [48][49] Question: What is the outlook for the ThermoSafe business? - Management is preparing for a resolution on the ThermoSafe situation by the end of the year, with positive performance noted [65] Question: What is the current status of net adjusted debt post the TFP pay down? - Management confirmed net adjusted debt is expected to be under four times by year-end, with a target of 3 to 3.3 times by the end of 2026 [69][70]

Financial Performance - Revenue, excluding discontinued operations, increased by 31% to $1.71 billion in Q1 2025[14] - Total Adjusted EBITDA increased by 38% to $338 million, with a margin of 16.6%, up 170 bps[15, 16] - Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) increased by 23% to $1.38[16] - Consumer Packaging Adjusted EBITDA increased significantly by 127%[19] - Industrial Paper Packaging Adjusted EBITDA increased by 6%[19] Strategic Actions and Outlook - The sale of TFP (likely Thermo Fisher Scientific) closed as expected for $1.8 billion, approximately 10 times TTM Adjusted EBITDA, and the $1.5 billion term loan was paid off[20] - The company reaffirms its 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion and Adjusted EPS guidance of $6.00 to $6.20[45] - The company is on track to achieve net leverage of 3.3x to 3.0x by the end of 2026[44] Segment Results - Consumer Packaging sales increased by 83% from $582 million in Q1 2024 to $1.066 billion in Q1 2025[30] - Industrial Paper Packaging sales decreased by 6% from $593 million in Q1 2024 to $558 million in Q1 2025[36] - All Other segment sales decreased by 36.6% from $134 million in Q1 2024 to $85 million in Q1 2025[39, 79]