Group 1 - The demand environment in North America has shown good mid-single-digit growth year-to-date, driven particularly by the energy category and a strong portfolio of both traditional and new players [1] - The first half of the year saw decent growth in carbonated soft drinks (CSD), although growth moderated in the second half, aligning more closely with expectations for the year [1] - Other categories, such as sparkling water, have also experienced good growth, benefiting from the company's portfolio shape, while there is less exposure to mass beer, which has shown weakness [2] Group 2 - Expectations for 2026 indicate a market growth forecast of low singles, with potential headwinds anticipated [2]

Summary of Ardagh Metal Packaging Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Ardagh Metal Packaging (NYSE: AMBP) - **Date**: December 03, 2025 Key Points Industry and Market Demand - **North America Demand**: Experienced mid-single digit growth year-to-date, driven by the energy category and carbonated soft drinks (CSD) [4][7] - **2026 Expectations**: Anticipated low single-digit growth, with potential headwinds from tariffs and high Midwest premiums [7][8] - **Brazil Market**: Expected recovery due to the World Cup and fiscal stimulus, although the market remains fragile after a cold winter [15][16] - **Europe Market**: Low single-digit growth year-to-date, with expectations for 2026 to align with market growth of 3%-4% [18][25] Competitive Dynamics - **Substrate Substitution**: The can is gaining market share from glass and plastic due to sustainability concerns and cost advantages [12][20] - **Beer Market Dynamics**: Domestic beer has faced pressure, but Ardagh is not significantly exposed to this segment [5][11] - **Competitive Environment**: Healthy competition in Europe, with pricing pressures requiring cost management to maintain margins [30] Operational Insights - **Utilization Rates**: North America operating rates are in the low 90s, while Europe is performing better, indicating a need for increased capacity [13][23] - **Capacity Investments**: Ongoing investments in facilities in France and Germany to increase capacity over 2026 [27] Financial Performance and Projections - **CapEx Guidance**: Approximately $1 billion in net build CapEx for the current year, with future investments aligned with free cash flow generation [36] - **Leverage Position**: Currently over five times leverage, with plans to deleverage as EBITDA grows [38] Sustainability and Innovation - **Sustainability Initiatives**: Focus on using recycled aluminum to improve carbon footprint, aligning with customers' sustainability targets [39] - **Product Innovation**: Strong growth in specialty products, particularly in energy drinks and sleek cans, supporting market position [34][35] Governance and Strategic Direction - **Management Stability**: No significant changes in governance or strategic direction following group recapitalization [40][41] - **Future Growth Opportunities**: Focus on capturing growth in existing markets before considering expansion into new geographies [42][43] Additional Considerations - **Cost Pressures**: Aluminum conversion costs have been a challenge, but the situation is normalizing [22] - **Market Trends**: The can's efficiency and branding advantages are expected to drive continued consumer preference [34] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's performance, market dynamics, and strategic outlook.

Core Points - The NYSE has initiated the delisting process for Ardagh Metal Packaging's warrants due to "abnormally low selling price" levels [1] - Ardagh Metal Packaging will not contest the NYSE's decision, allowing the delisting process to proceed [2] - Each warrant allows the holder to purchase one ordinary share at an exercise price of $11.50 until 4 August 2026 [3] - Ardagh Group reported higher revenue of $2.5 billion for Q3 2025, an increase from $2.39 billion in Q3 2024, driven by growth in metal packaging operations [4]

Core Points - The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) has initiated delisting proceedings for the warrants of Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP.WS) due to "abnormally low selling price levels" [2][3] - Trading of the warrants was halted on November 25, 2025, and will be suspended immediately, while trading of the company's ordinary shares (AMBP) will continue unaffected [1][3] - The company has the right to appeal the NYSE Regulation's decision through a Committee of the Board of Directors of the Exchange [3]

Core Insights - Steven Cress is the Head of Quantitative Strategies at Seeking Alpha, managing quant ratings and factor grades for stocks and ETFs [1][2] - Cress leads Alpha Picks, a monthly selection of two attractive stocks to buy and determines optimal sell times [1][2] - The Seeking Alpha Quant Rating system, created by Cress, interprets data for investors, providing insights and saving time [2] Company Overview - Seeking Alpha is focused on providing a quantitative stock rating system and analytical tools to assist investors [2] - The platform aims to remove emotional biases from investment decisions through a data-driven approach [2] - Cress previously founded CressCap Investment Research, which was acquired by Seeking Alpha in 2018, enhancing its quant analysis capabilities [2] Experience and Background - Steven Cress has over 30 years of experience in equity research, quantitative strategies, and portfolio management [2] - Prior to his current role, he ran a proprietary trading desk at Morgan Stanley and led international business development at Northern Trust [2] - Cress also founded the quant hedge fund Cress Capital Management, showcasing his extensive background in investment [2]

Core Insights - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. has published supplemental company information on its website, indicating transparency and ongoing communication with investors [1] - The company is a leading global supplier of sustainable and infinitely recyclable metal beverage cans, highlighting its commitment to sustainability [1] - In 2024, Ardagh Metal Packaging reported sales of approximately $4.9 billion, showcasing its significant market presence [1] Company Overview - Ardagh Metal Packaging operates as part of the Ardagh Group, focusing on sustainable packaging solutions [1] - The company has 23 metal beverage can production facilities across nine countries, employing over 6,000 people [1] - The company is recognized as a leading industry player in Europe and the Americas, emphasizing its innovative production capabilities [1] Financial Information - The company has launched an offering of $1,280 million in senior secured green notes, indicating a strategic move towards financing sustainable initiatives [4]

Industry Overview - The Zacks Metal Products - Procurement and Fabrication industry is experiencing strong demand across various end markets, with improvements in order levels and strategic pricing expected to help maintain margins despite tariff impacts [1][2][4] - The industry primarily includes metal processing and fabrication service providers that transform metal into parts and components used in sectors such as construction, aerospace, automotive, and more [3] Current Trends - The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index showed a slight increase to 49.1% in September from 48.7% in August, indicating a potential recovery in the industry [4] - The Production Index registered 50.3%, reflecting growth in fabricated metal products, while new orders showed renewed demand momentum despite overall contraction in the New Orders Index [4] Strategic Initiatives - Companies are implementing strategic pricing adjustments, cost-reduction initiatives, and productivity enhancements to tackle rising labor, freight, and fuel costs [5] - Diversification of supplier bases and modifications to supply chains are also being pursued to mitigate tariff impacts [5] Growth Catalysts - Emphasis on automation and cost-effective technical solutions is positioning the industry for future growth, with expected demand increases in manufacturing, aerospace, and automotive sectors [6] - Rapid industrialization in developing economies presents additional long-term growth opportunities [6] Industry Performance - The Zacks Metal Products - Procurement and Fabrication industry ranks 19, placing it in the top 8% of 243 Zacks industries, indicating positive near-term prospects [7] - Over the past year, the industry has grown 15.4%, lagging behind the sector's 20.5% rise but outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's 3.5% increase [10] Valuation Metrics - The industry is currently trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA ratio of 17.38X, compared to the S&P 500's 17.93X and the Industrial Products sector's 19.57X [13] Company Highlights - **Century Aluminum (CENX)**: Investing $50 million to restart over 50,000MT of idled production, expected to boost U.S. aluminum production by nearly 10% [19] - **Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP)**: Anticipating 3% growth in shipments and has raised its adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025 to $720-$735 million [24] - **TriMas Corporation (TRS)**: Forecasting consolidated sales growth at the higher end of the 8-10% range for full-year 2025, driven by strong demand in its packaging segment [28] - **GrafTech International (EAF)**: Sales volume rose 9% year-over-year, with a strong focus on the U.S. market and an expected 8-10% increase in sales volume for 2025 [32]

Core Insights - Beverage packaging manufacturers are facing challenges due to changing consumer preferences, spending power, and policy impacts across different regions [1] Company Performance - Crown Holdings reported a 5% decline in Americas Beverage volumes in Q3, following a 10% growth in the same quarter last year, primarily due to a 15% volume drop in Brazil and Mexico [3] - Ardagh Metal Packaging experienced a 1% year-over-year dip in global beverage can shipments in Q3, with a 3% decline in the Americas and a 2% growth in Europe [4] - Despite challenges, Ardagh's North American shipments grew by 1%, while Brazilian volumes fell by 17% [4] Market Trends - There is strong customer demand for nonalcoholic beverages in cans in North America, with Ardagh maintaining a full-year shipment growth guidance of mid-single-digit percentage [5] - Market research indicates that nearly half of Americans plan to drink less alcohol in 2025, prompting major beer distributors to adapt [7] Future Outlook - Crown Holdings' CEO expressed optimism about the resilience of beverage cans, predicting volume growth by 2026 [4] - Ardagh is planning projects to retrofit production lines for better adaptability to different can sizes [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 grew by 6% year-over-year, reaching $208 million, which is at the upper end of guidance [3][12] - Year-to-date global volumes are up over 3% compared to the previous year, despite Q3 volumes being below expectations [3][4] - The company expects full-year adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $720 to $735 million based on current FX rates [12] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Europe, Q3 revenue increased by 9% to $625 million, with a 2% growth in shipments driven by energy drinks and other fast-growing categories [4][6] - Adjusted EBITDA in Europe for Q3 increased by 4% to $82 million, but decreased by 4% on a constant currency basis due to input cost recovery challenges [5][6] - In the Americas, Q3 revenue rose by 8% to $803 million, with adjusted EBITDA also increasing by 8% to $126 million, supported by lower operational costs [6][7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America shipments increased by 1% in Q3, with year-to-date shipments up by 5% [7][8] - In Brazil, Q3 beverage can shipments decreased by 17% due to a weak industry backdrop, but year-to-date shipments are down only 1% [8][9] - The company anticipates a modest impact on Q4 performance in North America if supply chain conditions remain stable [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is progressing its sustainability agenda, targeting a 10% annual reduction in Scope 1 and 2 emissions and a 14% reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2024 [4] - The company expects to see a transition year in 2026, with growth anticipated in 2027 due to contracted additional filling locations and ongoing market growth [8][24] - The company is focusing on flexibility in production to better target growth categories and minimize reliance on the beer segment [62] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while demand elasticity is not currently significant, there are risks for 2026 due to potential increases in aluminum costs [16][17] - The outlook for 2026 is cautious, with expectations of low single-digit growth in North America and Brazil, while Europe is expected to grow at 3% to 4% [17][51] - Management expressed optimism about the beverage can's growth potential in Europe, citing underpenetration relative to other geographies [33] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with over $600 million in liquidity and a net leverage ratio of 5.2 times adjusted EBITDA [10] - The company announced a quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the effects of demand elasticity and aluminum pricing? - Management indicated that there is not a significant impact from demand elasticity at this point, but risks exist for 2026 due to potential aluminum cost increases [16] Question: What is the outlook for North America growth in 2026? - Management expects North America to grow at 1% to 2%, reflecting caution regarding inflation in can pricing [17] Question: How is the company addressing the transition to smaller formats in Europe? - The company is undertaking projects to convert lines for greater flexibility and agility in production to capture growth in faster-growing categories [62] Question: What are the expectations for beer consumption trends in Europe? - Management believes it is too early to call a secular shift in beer consumption but acknowledges a poor year and expects strategies to reverse this trend in 2026 [70] Question: How will aluminum conversion costs impact operations next year? - Management does not expect major savings but anticipates a moderation of headwinds from aluminum costs compared to the previous year [72]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 grew by 6% year-over-year, reaching $208 million, which is at the upper end of guidance [3][12] - Year-to-date global volumes are up over 3% compared to the previous year, despite Q3 volumes being below expectations [3][4] - The net leverage ratio improved to 5.2x, a decline of 0.4x from Q2 2024, reflecting adjusted EBITDA growth [10] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Europe, Q3 revenue increased by 9% to $625 million, with adjusted EBITDA rising by 4% to $82 million [4][5] - In the Americas, Q3 revenue increased by 8% to $803 million, with adjusted EBITDA also increasing by 8% to $126 million [6][7] - Brazil's beverage can shipments decreased by 17% in Q3 due to a weak industry backdrop, but year-to-date shipments are down only 1% [8][9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - European shipments grew by 2% in Q3, driven by energy drinks and other fast-growing categories, despite weakness in the beer category [4][5] - North American shipments increased by 1% in Q3, with year-to-date shipments up by 5% [7][8] - The Brazilian market is expected to return to growth in 2026, with full-year shipments anticipated to be broadly in line with the prior year [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on sustainability, aiming for a 10% annual reduction in Scope 1 and 2 emissions and a 14% reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2024 [4] - The company anticipates a transition year in 2026 for North America, with expected industry growth of low single-digit percentages [8][24] - The company is investing in flexibility for production lines to better adapt to market dynamics and changing consumer preferences [63] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while Q3 was weaker than expected, they remain optimistic about Q4 performance, particularly in North America [8][12] - The company expects to see earnings growth in 2026 over 2025, driven by operational cost savings and improved market conditions [51][52] - Management highlighted that the beer category in Europe had a poor year but does not expect this to be a long-term trend [70][72] Other Important Information - The company announced a quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share [11] - Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance has been upgraded to a range of $720 million to $735 million [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the effects of demand elasticity and aluminum pricing? - Management indicated that there is currently not a significant impact from demand elasticity, but there may be risks in 2026 as hedges roll off [16][17] Question: What is the outlook for North America in 2026? - Management expects North America to grow at a market level of 1%-2% in 2026, with some softness anticipated due to contract resets [17][24] Question: How is the company addressing growth in Europe? - Management stated that Europe remains a tight market, and they are planning projects to improve capacity and flexibility [27][28] Question: What are the expectations for aluminum costs and their impact? - Management noted that while there are no major savings expected, the step-up in costs from this year will moderate significantly [72] Question: How is the company managing supply chain issues? - Management expressed optimism about resolving supply chain issues and does not foresee risks to industry volumes from metal supply in 2026 [65][66]