Investors might want to bet on Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) , as earnings estimates for this company have been showing solid improvement lately. The stock has already gained solid short-term price momentum, and this trend might continue with its still improving earnings outlook.The upward trend in estimate revisions for this company reflects growing optimism of analysts on its earnings prospects, which should get reflected in its stock price. After all, empirical research shows a strong correlation be ...

The Industrial Products group has plenty of great stocks, but investors should always be looking for companies that are outperforming their peers. Has Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) been one of those stocks this year? A quick glance at the company's year-to-date performance in comparison to the rest of the Industrial Products sector should help us answer this question.Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. is a member of our Industrial Products group, which includes 191 different companies and currently sits at #9 ...

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (NYSE:AMBP) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call April 24, 2025 9:00 AM ET Company Participants Stephen Lyons - IR Oliver Graham - CEO Stefan Schellinger - CFO Conference Call Participants Anthony Pettinari - Citi Stefan Diaz - Morgan Stanley George Staphos - Bank of America Michael Roxland - Truist Securities Anojja Shah - UBS Gabe Hajde - Wells Fargo Securities Arun Viswanathan - RBC Capital Markets Operator Good day, and welcome to the Ardagh Metal Packaging S. A. Quarterly Result ...

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.02 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.01 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.01 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 100%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post earnings of $0.02 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.03, delivering a surprise of 50%.Over the last four quarters, the c ...

Core Insights - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. is positioned as a strong candidate for investors due to its consistent performance in beating earnings estimates [1][2] - The company has an average surprise of 32.14% over the past two quarters, indicating a strong track record [2] - The upcoming earnings report is anticipated on April 24, 2025, with a positive Earnings ESP of +50%, suggesting bullish sentiment among analysts [8] Earnings Performance - In the most recent quarter, Ardagh reported earnings of $0.03 per share against an expectation of $0.02, resulting in a surprise of 50% [2] - For the previous quarter, the company exceeded the consensus estimate of $0.07 per share by reporting $0.08, achieving a surprise of 14.29% [2] Earnings Estimates - There has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for Ardagh, supported by a positive Earnings ESP, which is a strong indicator of potential earnings beats [5][8] - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [6] Analyst Sentiment - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, reflecting the latest analyst revisions [7] - The current positive Earnings ESP indicates that analysts are optimistic about Ardagh's near-term earnings potential [8]

Exhibit 99.1 Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. For the Year Ended December 31, 2024 Annual Report UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549 FORM 20-F (Mark One) □ REGISTRATION STATEMENT PURSUANT TO SECTION 12(b) OR (g) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 OR � ANNUAL REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024 OR □ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 OR ...

Financial Performance - Cost of sales for the year ended December 31, 2024, decreased by $60 million, or 1%, to $4,278 million compared to $4,338 million in 2023, primarily due to lower exceptional costs[325]. - Gross profit increased by $156 million, or 33%, to $630 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, with a gross profit percentage rising to 12.8% from 9.9% in 2023[326]. - Operating profit increased by $126 million to $202 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $76 million in 2023, primarily due to higher gross profit[332]. - Net finance expense increased by $45 million to $192 million in 2024, with senior facilities interest expense rising by $8 million, or 6%[333]. - Income tax charge for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $13 million, compared to a tax credit of $21 million in 2023, reflecting an increase in profit before tax[338]. - The effective income tax rate on profit before exceptional items decreased to 28% in 2024 from 30% in 2023, attributed to changes in profitability mix[340]. - The loss for the year ended December 31, 2024, decreased by $47 million to $3 million, compared to a $50 million loss in 2023[341]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the year ended December 31, 2024, increased by $72 million, or 12%, to $672 million compared to $600 million in 2023[363]. - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $4,908 million, an increase of $96 million, or 2%, from $4,812 million in 2023[369]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue in Europe increased by $131 million, or 6%, to $2,161 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $2,030 million in 2023[370]. - Revenue in the Americas decreased by $35 million, or 1%, to $2,747 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $2,782 million in 2023[371]. - Adjusted EBITDA in Europe increased by $46 million, or 22%, to $257 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $211 million in 2023[372]. - Adjusted EBITDA in the Americas increased by $26 million, or 7%, to $415 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $389 million in 2023[373]. Exceptional Items and Costs - A net charge of $16 million was recognized as exceptional items for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to a net charge of $34 million in 2023[367]. - Exceptional costs paid, including restructuring, decreased by $3 million to $53 million in 2024, down from $56 million in 2023[420]. - Exceptional costs paid in 2023 decreased by $45 million to $56 million, down from $101 million in 2022[421]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - Operating profit for the year ended December 31, 2024, was reported at $202 million, with cash generated from operations amounting to $659 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $672 million[394]. - Net cash from operating activities decreased by $166 million from $616 million in 2023 to $450 million in 2024, mainly due to a decrease in working capital inflows[406]. - The company had $610 million in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash at December 31, 2024, along with available but undrawn liquidity of $353 million under credit facilities[395]. - The company expects to satisfy future long-term liquidity needs through a combination of cash flow generated from operations and refinancing of debt obligations[396]. Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $179 million, including $68 million on growth investment projects[408]. - Capital expenditure for the year ended December 31, 2024, decreased by $199 million to $179 million, compared to $378 million in 2023[426]. - In Europe, capital expenditure for 2024 was $76 million, down from $155 million in 2023[427]. - In the Americas, capital expenditure for 2024 was $103 million, down from $223 million in 2023[427]. Debt and Borrowings - Total borrowings as of December 31, 2024, amounted to $3,933 million, with net debt available liquidity of $3,305 million[387]. - The company entered into a new credit facility with Banco Bradesco S.A. for BRL500 million (approximately $90 million) on October 7, 2024[382]. - The company secured a €269 million ($300 million equivalent) senior secured term loan facility on September 24, 2024, maturing in September 2029[383]. - Proceeds from borrowings for the year ended December 31, 2024, amounted to $517 million, reflecting the drawdown of the Group's Senior Secured Term Loan and Global Asset Based Loan Facility[411]. - Total contractual obligations at December 31, 2024, amounted to $5,963 million, with long-term debt capital repayment obligations of $3,517 million[401]. Environmental and Regulatory Risks - The company has set GHG emission reduction targets to reduce Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 42% and absolute Scope 3 emissions by 12.3% by 2030, approved by the SBTi[136]. - Compliance with evolving environmental regulations may impose substantial costs, including potential capital upgrades to production facilities due to stricter pollutant emissions levels[141]. - The company may face significant liabilities related to environmental contamination at sites it operates or has operated, which could impose substantial costs[144]. - Changes in laws regarding recycling and deposits on metal packaging could disrupt demand and affect production costs, potentially leading to reduced production of certain products[149]. Cybersecurity and Operational Risks - The company relies heavily on automated systems and technology for operations, with risks of disruptions from cybersecurity attacks and other failures that could materially affect business[126]. - Increased global cybersecurity threats, including AI-enabled attacks, pose significant risks to the security of the company's systems and data[127]. - The company has previously experienced cybersecurity incidents, leading to temporary shutdowns of IT systems, highlighting vulnerabilities in its cybersecurity program[129]. Shareholder and Market Risks - The company’s substantial debt could limit its flexibility in managing operations and pursuing growth opportunities, potentially placing it at a competitive disadvantage[173]. - The trading price of Ordinary Shares may be volatile, influenced by factors such as new product announcements, customer gains or losses, and general market conditions[185]. - Future sales of Ordinary Shares by AGSA or other shareholders could significantly reduce the market price of Ordinary Shares[191]. - The company may not be able to raise additional capital without significant costs or shareholder dilution, which could further limit its operational capabilities[177]. - The company’s ability to pay dividends on Ordinary Shares may be limited by restrictions on obtaining sufficient funds through dividends from subsidiaries[196].

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (NYSE:AMBP) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call February 27, 2025 9:00 AM ET Company Participants Stephen Lyons - IR Oliver Graham - CEO Stefan Schellinger - CFO Conference Call Participants Stefan Diaz - Morgan Stanley Josh Spector - UBS Anthony Pettinari - Citi Arun Viswanathan - RBC Capital Markets Gabe Hajde - Wells Fargo Securities Michael Leithead - Barclays Operator Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Ardagh Metal Packaging S. A. Fourth Quarter 2024 Results Call. Today's con ...

Core Viewpoint - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. reported quarterly earnings of $0.03 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.02 per share, and showing an increase from $0.01 per share a year ago, indicating a 50% earnings surprise [1][2] Financial Performance - The company achieved revenues of $1.2 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.06%, compared to $1.13 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Ardagh Metal Packaging has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times and topped consensus revenue estimates once [2] Stock Performance - Since the beginning of the year, Ardagh Metal Packaging shares have declined by approximately 3.3%, while the S&P 500 has gained 1.3% [3] - The current Zacks Rank for the stock is 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.02 on revenues of $1.19 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.20 on revenues of $5.06 billion [7] - The trend of estimate revisions for Ardagh Metal Packaging is mixed, which may change following the recent earnings report [6] Industry Context - The Metal Products - Procurement and Fabrication industry, to which Ardagh belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 32% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges ahead [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - AMP recorded a strong business performance in Q3 2024, with adjusted EBITDA growing by 15% year-over-year, reflecting strong double-digit growth across both segments [3] - Adjusted free cash flow generation for the quarter was $150 million, with a net leverage ratio reduced from 5.8 times at the end of Q2 to 5.6 at the end of Q3 [12][13] - Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance was improved to a range of $650 million to $660 million, supported by global shipments growth expectation of 2% to 3% [4][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Europe, Q3 revenue increased by 2% to $572 million, with adjusted EBITDA rising by 18% to $79 million due to favorable volume mix and stronger input cost recovery [5][6] - In the Americas, Q3 revenue increased by 1% to $741 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 13% to $117 million, driven by favorable volume mix effects and lower operating costs [7][8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global beverage shipments grew by 2% in Q3 compared to the prior year, with strong demand for beverage cans amid resilient beverage consumption trends [3] - In Brazil, beverage can shipments increased by 1% against a strong market backdrop, with expectations for high single-digit industry growth for the year [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company expects beverage cans to continue outperforming other packaging types, supported by customer innovation and positive credentials regarding circularity and decarbonization [4] - AMP is progressing its sustainability agenda, including a large-scale virtual power purchase agreement in Portugal to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2030 [4] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the recovery of the European market, with expectations for shipment growth to increase to 3% to 4% for the year overall [6] - The company acknowledged pockets of weakness in the Americas, particularly in the energy category, which is expected to persist into Q4 [16] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with a liquidity position of $707 million, expected to increase to approximately $1 billion by year-end [13][14] - A quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share was announced, to be paid in December [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for Americas volume - Management confirmed a reduction in volume expectations for the Americas due to weakness in the energy category and specific customer issues in Brazil [16] Question: Drivers of European beverage can demand - Management highlighted long-term growth trends in Europe, with expectations for continued growth driven by pack-mix substitution and recovery in key markets [17][18] Question: Market growth expectations for 2025 - Management anticipates low single-digit growth in North America and mid-single digits in Brazil, with a cautious approach to growth relative to market dynamics [20][22] Question: CapEx and deleveraging strategy - Management indicated that the company could grow into its current network without significant additional growth CapEx for another year or two, with deleveraging expected from organic growth and cash flow [25][27] Question: Promotional activity trends - Management noted that promotional activity in North America is back to levels similar to last year, with ongoing growth in carbonated soft drinks despite muted activity in beer [50][51] Question: Impact of aluminum prices on customer behavior - Management stated that while aluminum prices have increased, they are still below levels that would drive significant substrate switching among customers [56]