Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $28.5 million, down from $41.7 million in Q3 2025 [8] - Total tons shipped in Q4 2025 were 3.8 million, a slight decrease from 3.9 million tons in Q3 2025 [8] - Cash provided by operating activities was $19 million in Q4, down from $50.6 million in Q3 [11] - Total liquidity at the end of Q4 was $524.3 million, down from $568.5 million at the end of Q3 [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metallurgical segment realizations increased to an average of $115.31 per ton in Q4, up from $114.94 in Q3 [8] - Realizations for metallurgical sales in Q4 were a total weighted average of $118.10 per ton, up from $117.62 in Q3 [9] - Incidental thermal portion realizations decreased to $77.80 per ton in Q4, down from $81.64 in Q3 [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Australian Premium Low-Vol Index increased by 14.6% from $190.20 per metric ton on October 1 to $218 per metric ton on December 31 [17] - The U.S. East Coast low-vol index rose from $177 in October to $185 per metric ton by the end of December, an increase of 4.5% [18] - The U.S. East Coast High-Vol A index dropped slightly to $150.50 per metric ton at the end of the year [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a strong balance sheet and efficient operations amid persistent market weakness, particularly in high-vol coal [7] - Development at the Kingston Wildcat Low-Vol Mine is ongoing, with expectations to produce roughly 500,000 tons in 2026 as it ramps up to full capacity [15] - The company is exploring various opportunities for potential M&A, while also continuing share buybacks to enhance shareholder value [36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the recent upward movement in coal markets is largely due to supply-related issues and may be temporary [4] - There is cautious optimism regarding global steel demand as a catalyst for improving metallurgical markets [5] - The management expressed concerns about the sustainability of recent price increases and the potential for market volatility [35] Other Important Information - The company has committed 37% of its metallurgical tonnage for 2026 at an average price of $134.02, with another 53% committed but not yet priced [12] - CapEx for Q4 was $29 million, up from $25.1 million in Q3 [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you clarify the mix of domestic versus seaborne-based tons? - Management indicated that approximately half of domestic volume is high-vol, while the other half is low and medium-vol [24] Question: What is the expected cost cadence over the year? - Management noted that Q1 typically sees elevated costs due to lower productivity, with costs normalizing in the second and third quarters [26] Question: What are the best uses for Alpha's cash at this stage? - Management emphasized maintaining liquidity for market volatility, share buybacks, and exploring M&A opportunities [35] Question: How do you see the broader market, particularly in Europe and South America? - Management expressed cautious optimism for recovery in Europe and South America, while noting ongoing challenges in Asia [29] Question: Any updates on U.S. supply and potential impacts? - Management mentioned that some smaller operations are going into care and maintenance, potentially reducing annual production by 1.5 to 2 million tons [48]

Core Viewpoint - Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. reported a net loss of $17.3 million for Q4 2025, reflecting ongoing challenges in the metallurgical pricing environment, while also indicating potential improvements in the market for 2026 [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net loss of $17.3 million for Q4 2025, compared to a net loss of $5.5 million in Q3 2025 and $2.1 million in Q4 2024 [1]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $28.5 million, down from $41.7 million in Q3 2025 and $53.2 million in Q4 2024 [1]. - Operating cash flow decreased to $19.0 million in Q4 2025 from $50.6 million in Q3 2025 [1]. Coal Revenues - Total coal revenues for Q4 2025 were $519.1 million, slightly down from $525.2 million in Q3 2025 [1]. - The metallurgical segment's coal sales realization was $115.31 per ton in Q4 2025, compared to $114.94 per ton in Q3 2025 [1]. Cost of Sales - The cost of coal sales in the metallurgical segment increased to $478.5 million in Q4 2025, up from $461.6 million in Q3 2025 [1]. - The average cost of coal sales per ton rose to $101.43 in Q4 2025 from $97.27 in Q3 2025 [1]. Liquidity and Capital Resources - As of December 31, 2025, total liquidity was $524.3 million, including cash and cash equivalents of $366.0 million [1]. - Capital expenditures for Q4 2025 were $29.0 million, compared to $25.1 million in Q3 2025 [1]. Share Repurchase Program - The board authorized a share repurchase program of up to $1.5 billion, with approximately 6.9 million shares repurchased for about $1.1 billion as of February 20, 2026 [1]. 2026 Operational Performance Update - As of February 17, 2026, Alpha has committed and priced approximately 37% of its metallurgical coal for 2026 at an average price of $134.02 per ton [2]. - The guidance for metallurgical coal shipments in 2026 is between 14.4 million and 15.4 million tons, while thermal coal shipments are expected to be between 0.7 million and 1.1 million tons [2].

Atkins said Ramaco did not cut wages or benefits despite a difficult market environment, and he credited productivity in the fourth quarter as the strongest of the year. Sussman reported fourth-quarter cash margins of $24 per ton , matching the first quarter as the strongest of 2025, even as U.S. high-vol metallurgical coal indices fell during the period.Chairman and CEO Randy Atkins said the quarter marked “the best quarter in years” for the company’s metallurgical coal operations, emphasizing cost control ...

Ramaco Resources supplies metallurgical coal from Appalachian mines, with shares outperforming the S&P 500 over the past year.On February 17, 2026, Potrero Capital Research disclosed in a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing that it sold 234,584 shares of Ramaco Resources (METC 0.78%) in the fourth quarter, an estimated $6.16 million trade based on quarterly average pricing.What happenedAccording to a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing dated February 17, 2026, Potrero Capital Researc ...

Core Viewpoint - Ramaco Resources, Inc. is facing a class action lawsuit due to allegations of misleading statements regarding the development of its Brook Mine, which is central to its pivot into rare earth minerals [1][4]. Group 1: Class Action Details - The class action is on behalf of investors who purchased securities between July 31, 2025, and October 23, 2025, with a deadline for filing a lead plaintiff motion set for March 31, 2026 [1]. - Investors are encouraged to contact the Portnoy Law Firm for legal rights discussions and case evaluations [2]. Group 2: Company Operations - Ramaco Resources primarily engaged in the development, operation, and sale of metallurgical coal but shifted focus to rare earth minerals in 2025, with the Brook Mine being a key project [3]. - The company allegedly broke ground on the Brook Mine on July 11, 2025, but claims of significant mining activity have been disputed [4]. Group 3: Allegations and Impact - The lawsuit claims that Ramaco Resources made false statements about the progress at the Brook Mine, asserting that no significant mining activities occurred post-groundbreaking [4]. - A report by Wolfpack Research on October 23, 2025, labeled the Brook Mine a "hoax," leading to a nearly 10% drop in Ramaco Resources' share price [5].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, the company reported a net loss of $79 million, or $1.54 per dilutive share, and adjusted EBITDA of $103 million, which includes $25 million of fire and idle costs from Leer South and $11 million from West Elk [13][14] - For the full year 2025, the net loss was $153 million, or $2.98 per dilutive share, with adjusted EBITDA of $512 million, impacted by $101 million related to Leer South fire and idle costs and $11 million from West Elk idle costs [15][16] - The company returned a total of $245 million to stockholders in 2025, constituting nearly 100% of free cash flow generation [8][9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Leer South mine resumed longwall mining in mid-December 2025 after a combustion event in early 2025, achieving its production target in January 2026 [5][6] - The West Elk mine transitioned to the B seam, which has shown significantly improved mining conditions, and is expected to run at high productivity levels in 2026 [7][8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. utility coal consumption increased by 12% in 2025 compared to 2024, with coal-fired generation in the PJM and MISO areas rising over 19% and 15%, respectively [16][17] - Global coal demand rose by approximately 0.5% to 8.9 billion metric tons in 2025, indicating a multi-year growth pattern [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capturing synergies from the merger, operational excellence across its segments, and establishing a safety-driven culture [4][5] - The company plans to return approximately 75% of free cash flow to shareholders, with a significant portion directed to share repurchases and a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share [8][9] - The company is also advancing efforts in rare earth elements and critical materials, with ongoing projects in the PRB and Northern Appalachia [25][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the operational performance for 2026, expecting strong results from both Leer South and West Elk mines [27][28] - The company anticipates a reduction in idling costs and an increase in insurance recovery compared to 2025, contributing to improved financial performance [24][28] Other Important Information - The company is benefiting from supportive coal policies under the current administration, including a production tax credit for coal and delayed retirements of coal-fired generation units [10][11] - The company is optimistic about the growth in demand for coal driven by the expansion of data centers, particularly in the Americas [17][18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you break out the high CV committed and priced for the PAMC portion? - The company has approximately 20.5 million tons committed for high CV, with 12 million domestic and 8.5 million for export, linked to API2 pricing [33][34] Question: What is the outlook for the order book in outer years? - The company contracted over 38 million tons last quarter, with pricing in contango for forward years [38][39] Question: What does the 45X credit mean for shareholder returns? - The company expects higher insurance proceeds and a reduction in idling costs, which will positively impact cash flow and shareholder returns [40][44] Question: How are synergies showing up in the P&L? - Synergies are primarily seen in headcount reductions and improved marketing and logistics, but overall market conditions have impacted their full realization [51][52] Question: What tangible steps have been taken to improve operational delivery for 2026? - The company has all assets running and has implemented schedule changes and production strategies to enhance efficiency [90][91]

Core Insights - Core Natural Resources reported a net loss of $79.0 million, or ($1.54) per diluted share, in Q4 2025, despite generating revenues of $1.042 billion [1][3] - The company generated net cash provided by operating activities of $107.3 million and free cash flow of $27.0 million during the same quarter [1][2] - Core returned $26.8 million to stockholders in Q4 2025, totaling $245.1 million for the year [1][2] Operational Performance - The high calorific value thermal coal segment sold 7.8 million tons in Q4 2025, a 9% increase from Q3, with realized coal revenue per ton sold at $58.11 [1][2] - In the metallurgical segment, coking coal sales were 2.0 million tons, with realized coal revenue per ton sold at $114.25 [1][2] - The Powder River Basin segment reported sales volumes of 12.6 million tons, with realized coal revenue per ton sold increasing to $14.21 [1][2] Financial and Liquidity Update - As of December 31, 2025, Core had total liquidity of $948.9 million, including $432.2 million in cash [2][3] - The company announced a capital return framework targeting the return of around 75% of free cash flow to stockholders, primarily through share repurchases and a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share [1][2] - Core has invested a total of $224.3 million to repurchase 3.1 million shares, representing approximately 6% of total shares outstanding [1][2] Market Dynamics - U.S. utility coal consumption increased by an estimated 45 million tons, or around 12%, in 2025, driven by robust power demand growth [2][3] - Global metallurgical coal markets are stabilizing, with premium low-vol coal prices in Queensland rising by approximately 25% to $250 per metric ton [2][3] - Core anticipates continued demand growth for thermal coal in the U.S. and a favorable long-term outlook for high-quality coking coals due to infrastructure investments in Southeast Asia [2][3] 2026 Guidance - Core expects to sell between 85.6 million to 91.4 million tons of coal in 2026, with specific targets for coking, high calorific value thermal, and Powder River Basin segments [2][3] - The company projects cash costs of coal sold per ton for metallurgical coal to be between $88.00 and $94.00, and for high calorific value thermal coal between $38.00 and $39.50 [2][3] - Capital expenditures for 2026 are estimated to be between $325 million and $375 million [2][3]

Group 1 - Black Bear Value Fund reported a return of +0.2% in December 2025, resulting in a total return of -12.6% for the year, while the S&P 500 returned +0.1% in December and +17.9% for 2025 [1] - The Fund has experienced a loss of 10-15% over the past two years in a rising market environment, indicating a divergence from the S&P 500 index [1] - The Fund's portfolio includes several strong names that are currently not favored by the market, with expectations of a significant rerating as they approach the end of a capital-investment cycle [1] Group 2 - Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (NYSE:HCC) is highlighted as a leading metallurgical coal producer, with a market capitalization of $4.717 billion [2] - The stock of Warrior Met Coal closed at $89.02 per share on February 6, 2026, with a one-month return of -4.717% and a twelve-month increase of 68.05% [2] - The company has seen minimal worldwide met coal resource development over the last decade, which may lead to tight supply and higher pricing when steel production improves [3] - Warrior Met Coal is currently investing the majority of its free cash flow into a capital project expected to conclude in 2025, which is ahead of schedule, suggesting a potential for significant cash flow generation post-investment [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, the company recorded net income attributable to common stockholders of $10.4 million or $0.09 per diluted share, with adjusted EBITDA of $118 million, a 19% increase from the prior quarter [26] - Operating cash flow from continuing operations was $69 million for the quarter and $336 million for the full year, ending the year with $575 million in cash and total liquidity above $900 million [26][34] - The company met or exceeded original guidance for seven of eight volume and cost metrics for the full year [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Seaborne thermal coal delivered 3.3 million tons, exceeding expectations, with realized export pricing averaging $81.80 per ton, up 7% from Q3 [27] - Seaborne metallurgical coal shipped 2.5 million tons, up 400,000 from Q3, with realized pricing improving to $113 per ton [28] - U.S. Thermal platform contributed $63 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q4, with nearly $250 million for the full year [29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The benchmark pricing for seaborne metallurgical coal rose to its highest mark in 18 months, increasing 15% from $190 per ton at the beginning of Q4 [17] - Coal fuel generation in the U.S. was up an estimated 13% year-over-year in 2025, while coal production increased by only 4% [21] - Asian countries continue to add coal generation capacity, with China adding 80 gigawatts in 2025 and India projected to increase coal-fired capacity by 87% by 2047 [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The Centurion Mine is positioned as a cornerstone asset to maximize long-term shareholder value, expected to ship an average of 4.7 million tons per year of premium hard coking coal [5][7] - The company aims to reweight its portfolio toward higher-margin metallurgical coal and is focused on asset optimization activities to maximize long-term earnings [8] - The company is also exploring opportunities in renewable projects and critical minerals, with ongoing assessments and partnerships [9][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in improving market fundamentals and highlighted the importance of safety and environmental excellence in operations [3][4] - The company anticipates continued strength in both domestic thermal and seaborne metallurgical coal markets, driven by structural changes in supply and demand dynamics [16][18] - Management emphasized the importance of shareholder returns as the top priority for capital allocation moving forward [36][60] Other Important Information - The company has invested approximately $750 million in the development of the Centurion Mine, significantly enhancing its leverage to premium hard coking coal markets [34] - The company is actively engaged in discussions with government officials regarding the siting of power plants and increasing U.S. coal exports [9][10] Q&A Session Summary Question: What do you assume for the Australian dollar in the cost guide? - The company is looking at $0.70 for the Australian dollar and using a $225 benchmark pricing [40] Question: How much CapEx is potentially still left for Centurion development? - Approximately $100 million a year in development for the north for the next three years, plus $25 million a year in sustaining capital in the south [41] Question: How should we think about pricing in 2027 and beyond? - The company expects favorable pricing conditions due to ongoing contracting and market dynamics [45] Question: What are the drivers for the increase in seaborne thermal costs? - The increase is primarily due to lower production volumes, particularly at Wilpinjong [49] Question: How should we think about the cadence of shipments as the year progresses? - The first quarter is expected to be weaker, with improvements anticipated in Q2 and Q3 as production ramps up [54]

Core Thesis - Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) presents a bullish investment case driven by undervalued core operations, critical minerals optionality, and a cyclical rebound in coal demand linked to AI-driven power needs [3][7] Financial Metrics - As of January 30th, BTU's share was trading at $35.26, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 26.89 and 25.19 respectively [1] - The core business is expected to generate approximately $900 million of EBITDA by FY27, implying an equity value of around $30–35 per share [4] Coal Business Valuation - The Centurion metallurgical coal project is valued at approximately $1.5 billion, supported by peer transactions and prior third-party interest [3] - Management believes potential liabilities related to the Anglo transaction are manageable and will not materially affect earnings power [4] Critical Minerals Exposure - BTU has identified significant concentrations of rare earth elements and critical minerals within its Powder River Basin mines, which are a priority for the U.S. Department of Energy [5] - Management claims these concentrations are competitive with peers, positioning BTU as a favored domestic supplier with potential value estimated at roughly $25 per share [6] Market Dynamics - AI-driven electricity demand is increasing coal generation and improving plant utilization, with delays in gas-fired capacity leading to greater reliance on coal [7] - Higher natural gas prices and urgent power needs make Powder River Basin coal a cost-effective solution, potentially driving an additional ~$700 million of EBITDA and ~$25 per share in value [7]