Summary of China Basic Materials Monitor - August 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Basic Materials** industry, highlighting recent trends in commodity prices and demand dynamics. Key Points Demand and Supply Dynamics - End-user orderbooks remained stable month-over-month (MoM) as of mid-August, indicating a lack of inspiring demand, particularly in infrastructure and renewables sectors [1] - Current Chinese demand for cement and construction steel is estimated to be **3-7% lower year-over-year (YoY)**, while demand for copper and aluminum is **6-11% lower YoY**. Flat steel demand has increased by **5% YoY** [1] - The average prices of main commodities have increased by **2-13% sequentially** in August, marking the first broad price hikes since April 2021 [1] Price Trends - Significant price increases were noted in **lithium** and **met coal**, leading the price hikes in upstream commodities [1] - Improved margins in steel have delayed production cuts, while higher lithium prices are expected to enhance global supply flexibility [1] Supply Policies - New safety standards and controls on coal overproduction are being implemented, along with proposed technical specifications for monitoring cement production and clean-ups in lithium mining licenses [1] - Supply policies are still in early stages but indicate a positive direction for the industry [1] Producer Feedback - A proprietary survey indicated that **26%** of respondents in downstream sectors reported a MoM increase in orders, while **31%** in basic materials reported the same. Conversely, **17%** and **16%** indicated a lower MoM trend [2] Margins and Pricing Stability - Recent weeks have shown improved margins/pricing for steel, coal, and lithium, while cement, aluminum, and copper prices have remained mostly stable [1] Additional Insights - The report suggests that the current trends in the basic materials sector are influenced by both domestic demand fluctuations and regulatory changes aimed at stabilizing supply and prices [1][2] - The stability in downstream order books, despite the overall weak demand, may indicate a cautious optimism among producers regarding future market conditions [2] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the August 2025 China Basic Materials Monitor, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the industry and its future outlook.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $46.1 million, significantly up from $5.7 million in Q1 2025 [10] - Total tons shipped in Q2 2025 were 3.9 million, an increase from 3.8 million tons in Q1 2025 [10] - Cost of coal sales decreased to $100.06 per ton in Q2 from $110.34 per ton in Q1, marking the best cost performance since 2021 [11][18] - Total liquidity at the end of Q2 2025 was $556.9 million, up from $485.8 million at the end of Q1 2025 [12][8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metallurgical segment realizations increased to an average of $119.43 per ton in Q2 from $118.61 in Q1 [10] - Realizations for metallurgical sales in Q2 were a total weighted average of $122.84 per ton, up from $122.08 per ton in Q1 [11] - SG&A expenses decreased to $11.9 million in Q2 from $12.6 million in Q1 [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. East Coast High Vol A and High Vol B pricing mechanisms reached multi-year lows, with High Vol A falling from $168 per ton to $161 per ton [7][23] - The Australian premium low vol index increased from $169 per metric ton on April 1 to $173.5 per metric ton on June 30 [22] - The U.S. East Coast Low Vol Index rose from $174 per metric ton in April to $175 per metric ton in June [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to fine-tuning guidance as it gains a better understanding of market conditions for the remainder of 2025 [6] - A buyback program has been restarted on an opportunistic basis, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [9] - The company is developing the Kingston Wildcat mine, with expectations of first coal production and shipping late this year [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted challenges in metallurgical coal markets due to weak steel demand and global economic uncertainty [6][20] - The company is focused on strengthening its balance sheet and liquidity position to capitalize on future opportunities [8] - Management expressed cautious optimism about maintaining cost improvements and operational efficiencies [30] Other Important Information - The passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act allows metallurgical coal produced between 2026 and 2029 to be eligible for a refundable tax credit, potentially providing a cash benefit of $30 million to $50 million annually [14] - The company is closely monitoring federal legislation related to metallurgical coal's designation as a critical mineral [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you walk us through where the savings came from? - Management indicated that savings were roughly 50% from productivity improvements and 50% from actual spending reductions, with a 10% increase in tons per man hour contributing significantly [30][31] Question: How much further improvement could we see in 2026? - Management was cautious about predicting costs for 2026 but acknowledged the possibility of costs dipping below $100 per ton [34] Question: How are you approaching domestic contracting? - The company emphasized the importance of sustaining business in 2026 with pricing that works over a twelve-month term, rather than focusing solely on spot prices [36] Question: What met price are you assuming in the back half of the year? - Management indicated they are holding flat with current prices, as there has not been much variation from January to now [43] Question: How do you think recent trade tensions could impact your business? - Management reported no negative feedback from customers in India and Brazil, indicating business as usual [45] Question: How many domestic tons do you have contracted for 2025? - The company expects to ship around 3.5 million tons domestically in 2025, with limited spot activity this year [46] Question: What are the expected expenditures on the DTA project? - Management confirmed that spending would remain around $25 million per year, with completion expected around 2028 [50] Question: How might the Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern merger impact your business? - Management expressed confidence in their strong relationship with Norfolk Southern and anticipated minimal impact from the merger [52][53]

Financial Performance - Alpha Metallurgical Resources reported a net loss of $5.0 million for Q2 2025, an improvement from a net loss of $33.9 million in Q1 2025 and a profit of $58.9 million in Q2 2024 [4][5] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $46.1 million, significantly up from $5.7 million in Q1 2025 [4][30] - Operating cash flow increased to $53.2 million in Q2 2025, compared to $22.2 million in Q1 2025 [8] Coal Revenues - Total coal revenues for Q2 2025 were $548.7 million, slightly up from $529.7 million in Q1 2025 [4][5] - The metallurgical segment's coal revenues (excluding freight and handling) were $464.1 million for Q2 2025, compared to $445.7 million in Q1 2025 [4][5] - The average realized price for metallurgical coal was $119.43 per ton in Q2 2025, up from $118.61 per ton in Q1 2025 [6][32] Cost Management - The cost of coal sales per ton decreased to $100.06 in Q2 2025 from $110.34 in Q1 2025, attributed to improved cost performance [7][32] - The company has lowered its full-year cost of coal sales guidance to a range of $101 to $107 per ton, down from $103 to $110 per ton [5][13] Liquidity and Capital Resources - As of June 30, 2025, total liquidity was $556.9 million, including cash and cash equivalents of $449.0 million [9][5] - Capital expenditures for Q2 2025 were $34.6 million, a decrease from $38.5 million in Q1 2025 [8] Guidance Adjustments - The company has reduced its SG&A expense guidance for 2025 to a range of $48 million to $54 million, down from $53 million to $59 million [5][14] - Idle operations expense guidance has been increased to a range of $21 million to $29 million, up from $18 million to $28 million [5][14] Future Opportunities - The recent legislation signed into law includes a refundable tax credit for metallurgical coal production, which could provide an annual cash benefit estimated between $30 million and $50 million [10][11] - The company plans to restart its share repurchase program, having achieved a significant increase in liquidity [12]

Core Viewpoint - Ramaco Resources, Inc. successfully closed a public offering of Class A common stock, raising approximately $200 million to fund its development projects and strategic growth opportunities [1][3]. Group 1: Offering Details - The company sold 10,666,667 shares of Class A common stock at a price of $18.75 per share, resulting in gross proceeds of around $200 million before expenses [1]. - Yorktown Energy Partners, as selling stockholders, granted underwriters a 30-day option to purchase additional shares worth up to $30 million, which was fully exercised [2]. - The sale of additional shares is expected to be completed on August 8, 2025, with no proceeds going to the company from this sale [2]. Group 2: Use of Proceeds - The net proceeds from the offering will be utilized to accelerate the development of the company's rare earth elements and critical minerals project, as well as for strategic growth opportunities and general corporate purposes [3]. Group 3: Company Overview - Ramaco Resources operates in southern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia, focusing on high-quality metallurgical coal and developing rare earth and critical minerals in Wyoming [6]. - The company has four active metallurgical coal mining complexes and is in the initial stages of production for a rare earth and coal mine in Wyoming, where a significant deposit of primary magnetic rare earths was discovered [6].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2 2025, the company generated $46 million of free cash flow and $203 million over the last twelve months, despite key commodities trading at or near operators' cost of production [6][7] - The net income for Q2 2025 was $34 million, with the mineral rights segment contributing $40 million in net income, a decrease of $13 million compared to the prior year [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The mineral rights segment's operating and free cash flow each decreased by $11 million year-over-year due to weaker coal markets [13] - The soda ash segment generated $3 million in net income, down $1 million from the previous year, with operating and free cash flow each decreasing by $3 million due to lower sales prices [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The metallurgical coal market remains under pressure with soft demand for steel and high coal inventories, leading to operators selling coal at or near production costs [7][8] - The soda ash market is significantly oversupplied, with prices below production costs for most producers, and expected to remain low until demand rebounds or supply rationalizes [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to pay off substantially all debt by mid-next year and increase unitholder distributions starting next August [7][12] - Future cash priorities post-deleveraging will focus on unitholder distributions, unit repurchases, and opportunistic investments [21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that many operators are in better financial shape than in previous downturns, which bodes well for the industry [8][9] - The current market for key commodities is as negative as ever, but the company continues to generate robust free cash flow [11] Other Important Information - The company has not made significant progress on COVID carbon neutral initiatives, with the market for most C and I activities remaining stagnant [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Are there opportunities to acquire additional royalty or soda ash assets post-debt repayment? - Management indicated that while the mineral rights market is fragmented and not very active, there are always possibilities for one-off transactions [19][20] Question: What are the priorities for cash after achieving a debt-free status? - Management stated that priorities will be unitholder distributions, unit repurchases at discounts, and opportunistic investments in assets at bargain prices [21] Question: Is there potential for other mineral opportunities across the company's land? - Management acknowledged the possibility of future opportunities but did not specify any current targets [22]

Core Viewpoint - Ramaco Resources, Inc. has announced an upsized underwritten public offering of Class A common stock, aiming to raise approximately $200 million through the sale of 10,666,667 shares at a price of $18.75 per share [1][3]. Offering Details - The offering includes a 30-day option for underwriters to purchase an additional $30 million of Class A common stock at the public offering price [2]. - The offering is expected to close on August 7, 2025, pending customary closing conditions [3]. Use of Proceeds - The net proceeds from the offering will be utilized to accelerate the development of the company's rare earth elements and critical minerals project, pursue strategic growth opportunities, and for general corporate purposes [3]. Company Background - Ramaco Resources, Inc. operates in southern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia, focusing on high-quality, low-cost metallurgical coal and is developing coal, rare earth, and critical minerals in Wyoming [7]. - The company has four active metallurgical coal mining complexes and is in the initial stages of production for a rare earth and coal mine in Wyoming, where a significant deposit of primary magnetic rare earths was discovered [7].

Core Viewpoint - Ramaco Resources, Inc. has initiated a $150 million underwritten public offering of its Class A common stock to fund the development of its rare earth elements and critical minerals project, along with other strategic growth opportunities and general corporate purposes [1][2]. Group 1: Offering Details - The offering includes a 30-day option for underwriters to purchase an additional $22.5 million of Class A common stock at the public offering price, less underwriting discounts [1]. - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC are the lead joint book-running managers for the offering [3]. - A shelf registration statement for the offered securities was filed with the SEC and became effective on August 5, 2025 [4]. Group 2: Use of Proceeds - The net proceeds from the offering will be used to accelerate the development of the company's rare earth elements and critical minerals project, pursue strategic growth opportunities, and for general corporate purposes [2]. Group 3: Company Overview - Ramaco Resources operates and develops high-quality, low-cost metallurgical coal in southern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia, and is also a developing producer of coal, rare earth, and critical minerals in Wyoming [6]. - The company has four active metallurgical coal mining complexes in Central Appalachia and is in the initial stages of production at a rare earth and coal mine near Sheridan, Wyoming [6]. - In 2023, a major deposit of primary magnetic rare earths and critical minerals was discovered at the Wyoming mine, and the company holds approximately 76 intellectual property patents and related agreements [6].

Core Insights - Ramaco Resources reported Q2 2025 GAAP revenue of $152.96 million, exceeding analyst expectations by over $21 million, but posted a net loss with diluted GAAP EPS at ($0.29), worse than the expected ($0.18) loss [1][9] - The company achieved record production levels, but faced challenges from lower coal prices, compressed margins, and increased project expenses [1][5] Financial Performance - Q2 2025 diluted GAAP EPS was ($0.29), compared to the estimate of ($0.18) and a profit of $0.08 in Q2 2024 [2] - Revenue for Q2 2025 was $153.0 million, down 1.5% from $155.3 million in Q2 2024 [2] - Adjusted EBITDA fell 69% year-over-year to $9.0 million [2][9] - Non-GAAP revenue per ton sold decreased by 14% to $123, while non-GAAP cash cost per ton sold was $103, down 5% year-over-year [2][7] Production and Sales - Total coal production reached 999,000 tons, an 11% increase from Q2 2024, with sales volumes up 18% to 1,079,000 tons [5] - The Elk Creek Complex produced a record 688,000 tons, a 35% year-over-year increase, while output from other mines fell by 21% [5] - The realized price per ton dropped 14% from the previous year, contributing to margin pressure [6] Strategic Focus and Expansion - Ramaco is expanding into rare earth elements (REE), critical for electronics and energy transition technologies, with a focus on the Brook Mine REE project [4][8] - Mining at the Brook Mine began in June 2025, with initial commercial production of rare earth oxides targeted for 2027 [8] - The project has an estimated resource of approximately 1.7 million tons of total rare earth oxides [8] Operational Efficiency - Non-GAAP cash cost per ton sold was $103, indicating strong cost control, but non-GAAP cash margin per ton shrank by 43% to $20 [7] - The company has adjusted its 2025 production guidance to a range of 3.9 to 4.3 million tons and sales from 4.1 to 4.5 million tons [7][13] Market Conditions and Guidance - The company is facing a tough pricing environment, with management opting not to sell at a loss in a saturated market [11] - Guidance for cash costs per ton was slightly lowered to $96–$102, with annual capital spending expected between $55 million and $65 million [13] Dividend and Future Outlook - Ramaco declared a dividend of $0.1811 per share on Class B common stock, with no significant changes noted in the dividend trend [14] - Investors are monitoring the rare earth project's capital needs and execution risks, which could impact cash flow and strategic direction [14]

Peabody Energy (BTU) Q2 2025 Earnings Call July 31, 2025 11:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsVic Svec - SVP, Global Investor and Corporate RelationsJim Grech - President and Chief Executive OfficerMalcolm Roberts - Chief Marketing OfficerMark Spurbeck - EVP & CFOConference Call ParticipantsGeorge Eady - AnalystChris LaFemina - Equity Research AnalystNick Giles - Senior Research AnalystKatja Jancic - Metals & Mining AnalystNathan Martin - Equity Research AnalystOperatorGood day, and welcome to the Peabody Q2 twe ...

Core Viewpoint - Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) is identified as a vulnerable stock despite being in a hot industry, with significant negative earnings revisions leading to its designation as today's Bear of the Day [1]. Company Summary - AMR, a metallurgical coal producer, benefited from post-pandemic steel demand and the energy crisis of 2022, but these favorable conditions are diminishing [2]. - The company specializes in met coal for steelmaking, which theoretically provides a resilient profile, but market sentiment has shifted negatively [3]. - AMR currently holds a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell), indicating severe negative earnings estimate revisions [4]. Earnings Performance - Over the past 90 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for AMR's current year earnings has dropped from $11.75 to a loss of $5.95 per share, while next year's estimates fell from $41.59 to $17.65 [5]. - The company has missed earnings expectations for three consecutive quarters, with shortfalls of 70%, 128%, and 81% [5]. Industry Context - The Mining – Miscellaneous industry is ranked in the Bottom 33% of Zacks Industry Rank, although some stocks within the industry, such as Contango ORE (CTGO) and Materion (MTRN), maintain a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) [6].