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日产汽车:第一季度利润可能看起来好于指引,但实现好转的道路将艰难-20250609
Bernstein· 2025-06-09 05:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Underperform" rating for Nissan Motor Co Ltd with a price target of ¥250.00 [1][7][39] Core Insights - Nissan's Q1 profits may appear better than guidance, but the path to a turnaround is expected to be challenging due to structural headwinds and the impact of US tariffs [1][10][14] - The company has lowered its operating profit forecast for FY3/26 to JPY -160 billion, reflecting a more conservative perspective on the impact of US tariffs [2][13] - The Re:Nissan recovery plan aims to achieve positive operating profit and free cash flow by FY3/27 through cost reductions and refining market strategies [12][39] Financial Performance - For FY3/25, Nissan reported sales of JPY 12,633 billion, operating profit of JPY 70 billion, and a net profit of JPY -671 billion, with operating profit falling short of guidance by 18% [11] - The forecast for global retail volume in FY3/26 is 3.161 million units, a decrease of 5.5% year-over-year, with a significant impact expected from US import tariffs [2][13] - The company anticipates an operating loss of JPY -200 billion for Q1, attributed to reduced shipment volumes and increased unprofitable fleet sales [3][14] Strategic Initiatives - The Re:Nissan plan includes reducing variable and fixed costs by JPY 250 billion each by FY3/27, consolidating vehicle plants, and reducing the workforce by 20,000 employees by FY3/28 [12][39] - Nissan aims to redefine its market and product strategy, focusing on key markets and models, while reinforcing partnerships with Renault and MMC [12][39] Market Context - Nissan has faced a 40% drop in global sales volume over the past five years due to intensified competition in core markets [17][18] - The company continues to lose market share in the US, China, and ASEAN regions, indicating a structural issue that needs addressing [20][22][24]