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Evercore Initiates AppLovin at Outperform on Mobile Gaming and E-Commerce Growth
Financial Modeling Prep· 2026-01-14 21:05
Core Viewpoint - AppLovin is positioned as a leading advertising technology platform in mobile gaming, with significant growth potential in e-commerce performance advertising, leading to an expected revenue and EBITDA growth rate exceeding 30% from 2025 to 2028 [1][2] Industry Summary - The mobile gaming ad spend is forecasted to grow approximately 23% annually through 2028, driven by strong industry fundamentals and AppLovin's effective execution [2] - AppLovin is anticipated to capture a high-single-digit to low-double-digit share of direct-to-consumer e-commerce ad spend by fiscal 2028, translating to an estimated $3.4 billion in revenue from a $7.5 billion spend base within a broader $75 billion to $150 billion ad market [3] Company Summary - Evercore ISI initiated coverage on AppLovin with an Outperform rating and a price target of $835, indicating a potential upside of around 25% [1] - The price target is based on a 35x multiple applied to Evercore's 2027 EBITDA forecast of $8.35 billion, assuming the company maintains its current valuation multiple [5] - Regulatory and platform risks are considered remote, with potential scenarios indicating that AppLovin could either face pressure in its e-commerce business or gain market share in a uniform enforcement scenario [4]