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Investors Still Lovin' McDonald's? Bull Case Perspective Into MCD Earnings
Youtubeยท 2025-11-04 17:01
Core Viewpoint - McDonald's is expected to report earnings per share of approximately $3.33, reflecting a year-over-year growth rate of about 3%, which is on the lower end due to rising input and labor costs [2][3] Financial Performance - The stock is currently trading at $296 with a dividend yield of 2.5%, and there is potential for dividend growth over the next four quarters [4] - The company has maintained a profit margin of around 30%, although it has seen a slight decline from previous years [12] Market Conditions - Inflation pressures are easing, which may provide macro benefits moving forward [6][8] - The company is implementing a $40 million marketing budget to support franchisees and drive sales through discounted menu items [7][8] Consumer Behavior - The unemployment rate is low, indicating consumers have jobs and healthy balance sheets, which supports spending [14] - McDonald's has introduced a value menu and revived promotional campaigns like Monopoly to enhance brand loyalty and drive volume [15] Sales Expectations - The company is targeting a same-store sales growth of 2%, which is considered a low bar for performance [9] - The stock is trading at approximately 21 times forward earnings, suggesting favorable conditions for growth [16] Investment Strategy - Options market indicates a less than 3% expected move post-earnings, with a bullish sentiment reflected in trading strategies [17][18] - A proposed strategy involves a call vertical spread, indicating a bullish outlook with a break-even point just above the current share price [19][20]