Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Moody's achieved record quarterly revenue exceeding $2 billion for the first time, representing an 11% increase from the same quarter last year [5] - Adjusted operating margin reached almost 53%, up over 500 basis points year-over-year, indicating strong operating leverage [5] - Adjusted diluted EPS was $3.92, a 22% increase from the previous year, reflecting consistent earnings power growth [5][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Moody's Investors Service (MIS) reported a 12% revenue growth, surpassing $1 billion in quarterly revenue for the third consecutive quarter [6][21] - Revenue from private credit grew over 60% in the third quarter, driven by strong demand in fund finance and securitization [11] - Moody's Analytics (MA) delivered a 9% year-over-year revenue growth, with an 11% increase in decision solutions [12][28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The issuance pipeline remains robust, with projected refunding needs over the next four years exceeding $5 trillion, a 10% compound annual growth rate from 2018 to 2025 [9] - Spec-grade bond maturities increased by over 20% in both the U.S. and EMEA regions, indicating a favorable backdrop for future issuance [10] - The number of private credit-related deals grew almost 70% in the third quarter, highlighting the sector's growth potential [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Moody's is focused on investing in scalable solutions across high-growth markets while simplifying its product suite [12] - The company is expanding its presence in emerging markets, including acquiring a majority interest in Meris, a leading ratings agency in Egypt [19] - Strategic partnerships, such as with Salesforce, are being leveraged to enhance customer integration and drive durable growth [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the issuance environment heading into 2026, citing tight spreads and potential Fed easing as positive factors [60] - The company anticipates continued strong demand for credit insights, particularly in the private credit market amid rising concerns about credit health [70] - Management acknowledged risks related to ongoing tariff negotiations and potential government shutdown impacts on market conditions [28] Other Important Information - Moody's is increasing its full-year guidance for adjusted diluted EPS to a range of $14.50 to $14.75, implying approximately 17% growth at the midpoint [37] - Free cash flow is expected to be around $2.5 billion, with share repurchase guidance increased to at least $1.5 billion [37] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on AI in the analytics business - Management clarified that AI is being embedded into various workflow solutions and that they have developed over 50 domain-specific agents leveraging proprietary data [41] Question: Impact of record issuance in Q3 - Management noted that pull forward activity is more prevalent in spec-grade than investment-grade issuers, with healthy maturity walls expected [46] Question: Proprietary data sets in KYC solutions - Management highlighted the unique data sets used in KYC solutions, including Orbis and AI-curated news, which provide a comprehensive view of business relationships [50] Question: Differences in refi walls portrayal - Management explained that the article referenced a decline in U.S. spec-grade refi walls, which is a subset of broader maturities that remain healthy [52] Question: Outlook for issuance in 2026 - Management indicated more tailwinds than headwinds for 2026, with expectations for continued strong issuance driven by M&A activity and infrastructure investments [60]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Moody's achieved record quarterly revenue exceeding $2 billion for the first time, marking an 11% increase from the same quarter last year [6] - Adjusted operating margin reached almost 53%, up over 500 basis points year-over-year, indicating strong operating leverage [7] - Adjusted diluted EPS was $3.92, reflecting a 22% increase from the previous year, and more than doubling from three years ago [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Ratings business (MIS) reported a 12% revenue growth, surpassing $1 billion in quarterly revenue for the third consecutive quarter [8] - Transaction revenue in MIS rose 14%, with corporate finance transaction revenue increasing by 13% [28][30] - Moody's Analytics (MA) saw a 9% year-over-year revenue growth, with ARR reaching nearly $3.4 billion, up 8% from last year [15][38] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The issuance pipeline remains robust, with demand for debt financing strong in private credit, AI-powered data center expansion, and infrastructure development [9][10] - Refunding needs over the next four years are projected to exceed $5 trillion, representing a compound annual growth rate of 10% from 2018 to 2025 [11] - Spec grade maturities in the U.S. increased by over 20%, indicating a favorable backdrop for future issuance [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Moody's is focused on investing in scalable recurring revenue businesses and simplifying its product suite, as evidenced by the sale of its Learning Solutions business [17] - The company is expanding its footprint in emerging markets, acquiring a majority interest in Meris, a leading ratings agency in Egypt [23][24] - The strategy includes leveraging AI capabilities to enhance customer workflows and embedding data into partner ecosystems, such as Salesforce [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the issuance environment heading into 2026, citing tight spreads and potential Fed easing as positive factors [78] - The company anticipates continued growth in private credit and infrastructure investments, particularly in digital infrastructure and data centers [82] - Risks include ongoing tariff negotiations and the potential impact of a prolonged government shutdown on market conditions [37] Other Important Information - Moody's is increasing its full-year guidance across almost all metrics, reflecting strong growth and operating leverage [5][27] - The company expects free cash flow to reach approximately $2.5 billion and plans to return over 85% of free cash flow to shareholders [48] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on AI in Analytics Business - Management indicated that AI is an opportunity for growth, with plans to embed AI into various workflow solutions and develop agentic solutions [51][52][55] Question: Impact of Record Issuance in Q3 - Management noted that pull forward activity is more common in spec grade than investment grade, with healthy maturity walls expected [58][60] Question: Proprietary Data in KYC Business - Management highlighted unique datasets in KYC solutions, including Orbis and politically exposed persons data, which provide a comprehensive view for customers [62][66] Question: Refi Walls and Market Conditions - Management clarified that the article referenced a decline in U.S. spec grade, while overall maturities remain healthy, with a positive outlook for refinancing [68][70] Question: Issuance Expectations for 2026 - Management anticipates more tailwinds than headwinds for issuance in 2026, driven by tight spreads and a robust M&A environment [76][78] Question: Growth in Moody's Analytics - Management confirmed that MA growth is tracking as expected, with a strong pipeline for Q4 and a focus on high single-digit growth [86][88] Question: Health of Private Credit Market - Management acknowledged concerns in the private credit market but emphasized the importance of independent credit assessments and the potential for demand for insights [91][94]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast Moody's (MCO) will report quarterly earnings of $3.42 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 4.3%, with anticipated revenues of $1.85 billion, up 1.8% from the previous year [1]. Earnings Estimates - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised upward by 1.5%, indicating analysts' reassessment of their initial forecasts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts estimate that 'Revenue- Total external customers- Moody's investor services' will reach $977.85 million, down 3.7% year-over-year, while 'Revenue- Total external customers- Moody's Analytics' is projected at $871.28 million, up 8.6% [5]. - 'Revenue- Moody's Analytics- Decision Solutions' is expected to be $409.35 million, reflecting an 11.8% increase year-over-year. 'Revenue- Moody's Analytics- Data and Information' is estimated at $222.57 million, up 6%, and 'Revenue- Moody's Analytics- Research and Insights' at $239.93 million, up 6.2% [6]. - The consensus for 'Revenue- Moody's investor services' is $1.03 billion, indicating a 3.1% decrease from the prior year, while 'Revenue- Moody's Analytics' is projected at $875.94 million, up 8.7% [8]. - Specific revenue estimates include 'Revenue- Moody's investor services- Recurring' at $336.58 million, up 4.2%, and 'Revenue- Moody's investor services- Transaction' at $640.27 million, down 7.5% [7][8]. - 'Revenue- Moody's investor services- Public, project and infrastructure finance' is expected to reach $164.17 million, up 6.6%, and 'Revenue- Moody's investor services- Financial institutions' at $197.98 million, up 1.5% [9]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, Moody's shares have returned +6.8%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +5.4% change, suggesting that MCO will likely perform in line with the overall market in the upcoming period [9].