Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) has experienced a significant decline of 17.5% over the past four weeks, but it is now in oversold territory, indicating a potential trend reversal supported by analyst consensus for better earnings than previously predicted [1] Group 1: Technical Analysis - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that helps identify whether a stock is oversold, with readings below 30 indicating oversold conditions [2] - TME's current RSI reading is 26.72, suggesting that the heavy selling pressure may be exhausting, and a trend reversal could occur soon [5] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - Analysts have raised earnings estimates for TME, with a 1.2% increase in the consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days, indicating potential price appreciation in the near term [6] - TME holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises, further supporting the stock's potential turnaround [7]

Market Overview - Pre-market futures are up, indicating a positive market sentiment following a mixed session where the Dow reached a record high while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 experienced pullbacks [1] - Current index performance shows the Dow up +103 points, S&P 500 up +22, Nasdaq up +151, and Russell 2000 up +7 points [1] Economic Indicators - The government shutdown is ongoing, now on Day 43, with a House vote scheduled to discuss re-opening [2] - Upcoming economic reports such as CPI, PPI, Weekly Jobless Claims, and Retail Sales are still possible, which could provide insights into the economy ahead of the holiday shopping season [2] Inflation Insights - Year-over-year Consumer Price Inflation is currently at +3%, up from +2.3% in April, with expectations to reach +3.1% for October [3] - This increase in inflation is significant for the Federal Reserve's considerations regarding future interest-rate cuts [4] Company Earnings Reports - Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) reported Q3 earnings of 22 cents per share, beating expectations, with revenues of $1.19 billion, a +20.6% year-over-year increase; however, the stock is down -2% [5] - On Holding (ONON) exceeded earnings expectations with 50 cents per share versus the anticipated 34 cents, and revenues of $992.9 million, leading to a +23% increase in shares [6] - McGraw-Hill (MH) reported an earnings surprise of +300%, with earnings of $1.40 per share compared to the expected $0.35, and revenues of $669.2 million, resulting in a +14% increase in shares [7]

Core Insights - Spotify's third quarter operating profits increased by 28%, with paying subscribers reaching 281 million [1] - Operating income was €582 million ($669 million), exceeding guidance of €485 million, while revenue rose 7% to €4.27 billion [1] - Total active monthly users (MAUs) grew to 713 million, an 11% year-over-year increase and a 2% rise from Q2 [1] Financial Performance - Free cash flow reached a record high of €806 million, up 13% [1] - Ad-supported revenue declined by 6% to €446 million, despite an 11% increase in ad-supported MAUs to 446 million [2] Future Outlook - Expectations for Q4 include total MAUs of 745 million, an increase of 32 million; 289 million paying subscribers, an increase of 8 million; total revenue projected at €4.5 billion; gross margin of 32.9%; and operating income of €620 million [3] - The company expressed confidence in its performance and growth potential heading into 2025 [3] Leadership Changes - Spotify founder and CEO Daniel Ek will transition to an Executive Chairman role on January 1, 2026, with Gustav Söderström and Alex Norström becoming co-CEOs [4]

Company Updates - Spotify shares dropped following the announcement that co-founder and CEO Daniel Ek will step down, with co-presidents Gustav Soderstrom and Alex Norstrom set to take over as co-CEOs [2][4] - Instacart operator Maplebear saw its shares tumble after BTIG downgraded its rating from "buy" to "neutral," citing increased competition in the food delivery sector [2] - Firefly Aerospace experienced a significant decline in shares after one of its rocket boosters exploded during preflight tests [2] Market Reactions - Pfizer shares gained after the pharmaceutical company reached a deal with the Trump administration to lower drug prices [3][4] - CoreWeave shares surged following the announcement of a new agreement with Meta Platforms valued at up to $14.2 billion [3] - Lamb Weston Holdings shares increased after the company reported better-than-expected sales driven by improved restaurant demand [3] Economic Indicators - Major U.S. equities indexes, including the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq, edged lower amid concerns over a potential government shutdown [4]

Core Insights - Spotify's founder-CEO Daniel Ek will transition to the role of executive chairman in January, with Gustav Soderstrom and Alex Norstrom appointed as co-CEOs, focusing on capital allocation and long-term strategy [1] Group 1: Leadership Changes - Daniel Ek has been on Spotify's board since 2008 and will adopt a European-style chairman role [1] - Gustav Soderstrom has nearly 17 years of experience at Spotify, most recently serving as chief product and technology officer [3] - Alex Norstrom has over 14 years at Spotify, previously holding the position of chief business officer [5] Group 2: Background of Co-CEOs - Gustav Soderstrom holds a Master of Science degree in electrical engineering and data communications from KTH Royal Institute of Technology [2] - Soderstrom founded Kenet Works in 2003, which was acquired by Yahoo! in 2006, and has been involved in various startups [2] - Alex Norstrom holds a Master of Science degree in business and economics from the Stockholm School of Economics [4] - Norstrom joined Spotify in 2011 after serving as chief new business officer at King.com [4]

Core Insights - Music streaming has become an integral part of daily life, with Spotify being the leading platform in this industry [1] Company Insights - Spotify is recognized as the world's leading music streaming service, indicating its significant market position [1] Industry Insights - The music streaming industry is shaped by various themes, influenced by technology companies and startups, highlighting the dynamic nature of the sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) has significantly outperformed Spotify in 2025, with a total return of approximately 122% compared to Spotify's 54% year-to-date increase [1][2]. Company Performance - TME is the largest music streaming service in China, boasting over 550 million monthly active users and nearly 125 million paying users, indicating its dominant market position [3]. - TME's Q2 earnings report showed a revenue growth acceleration of 18%, marking its seventh consecutive quarter of growth, following a nearly 2% revenue decline a year prior [6]. - The company's gross margin improved to 44.4%, an increase of 240 basis points year-over-year, and operating margin grew to 35.3%, up from 21.1% two years ago [7]. Investment Insights - Spotify's investment in TME, valued at around $1.6 billion at the end of 2024, suggests strong confidence in TME's business model and growth potential [5]. - Analysts have set a 12-month price target for TME at approximately $24.50, indicating a slight downside, but the average target from recent updates suggests potential upside to around $28.25, representing a 13.5% increase [8][9]. Market Position - TME's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is around 27x, which is significantly lower than Spotify's P/E of over 59x, indicating a potential undervaluation of TME [9]. - Despite TME's lack of geographic diversification, it has substantial growth potential within China, where only about 9% of the population are paying users [11][12].

Market Overview - Pre-market futures are up due to various earnings reports, economic data, and a significant railway merger [1] - The Dow is slightly down by 12 points, while the S&P 500 is up by 11 points, and the Nasdaq is up by 88 points [1] Railway Merger - Union Pacific (UNP) is set to acquire Norfolk Southern (NSC) for $72 billion, or $320 per share, creating the first trans-continental railroad in the U.S. [2] - The merger requires approval from the Surface Transportation Board, and the current administration may favor the deal despite monopolistic concerns [3] Trade Balance - The Advanced U.S. Trade Balance in Goods for June shows a pullback to -$86 billion, better than expected, driven by a 4.2% decline in imports [4] - This indicates a slowdown in trade due to higher tariff expectations, contrasting with the record-low trade balance of -$162 billion in March 2025 [4] Q2 Earnings Highlights - Boeing (BA) reported a Q2 loss of $1.24 per share, improving by 30 cents over consensus, with revenues of $22.75 billion exceeding estimates by 4.1% [5] - UnitedHealth (UNH) missed earnings expectations with $4.08 per share versus $4.84 expected, while revenues of $111.6 billion slightly beat estimates [6] - Royal Caribbean (RCL) reported earnings of $4.38 per share, surpassing consensus by 6.8%, despite revenues of $4.54 billion missing projections [7] - Spotify (SPOT) reported a loss of $0.48 per share, significantly missing the $2.13 consensus estimate, with revenues of $4.76 billion also falling short [8]

Company Overview - Helsing, a European defense technology startup, has raised 600 million euros ($693.6 million) in a new funding round led by Prima Materia, a venture capital firm founded by Spotify CEO Daniel Ek [1] - Existing investors include Lightspeed Venture Partners, Accel, Plural, General Catalyst, and Saab, with new investments from BDT & MSD Partners [2] Industry Trends - The defense technology sector has become increasingly attractive to investors due to ongoing global conflicts, such as the Ukraine war and the recent escalation in the Middle East [2] - In 2024, venture funding in Europe's defense, security, and resilience sector reached an all-time high of $5.2 billion, marking a 30% growth over the past two years, while the broader VC market experienced a 45% decline during the same period [3]