Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical factors are hindering the S&P 500's performance, while the Russell 2000 index of smaller-cap companies is experiencing significant gains [1] Group 1: Russell 2000 Performance - The Russell 2000 marked its 7th record close of the new year on Wednesday [1] - The index achieved its best one-day gain on both a point and percentage basis since late November [1] - Since the beginning of the year, the Russell 2000 has outperformed the Nasdaq Composite by nearly 3% [1]

Trump said the market had set "52 all-time high records†since the election. That's true. Since Nov. 6, 2024, the S&P 500 has had 52 record closes as of Tuesday's close, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Nasdaq Composite has notched 46 record closes. Here's how all three major indexes have performed since Jan 20, 2025, last year's inauguration day: ...

Economic Context - The U.S. deficit decreased by 15% year-over-year in 2025 but is projected to increase again due to President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act [1] - The Federal Reserve implemented three rate cuts in 2025, contrasting with the rate hikes in 1999 when the government had a budget surplus [1] Market Sentiment - Investor sentiment is reminiscent of the late 1990s, with expectations of a significant market run-up driven by central bank policies and government spending [2] - Late-cycle rallies are noted for delivering substantial gains, with the greatest price appreciation typically occurring in the 12 months before market peaks [2] Asset Performance - Gold has shown a remarkable return of approximately 71% over the past 12 months, reaching a high spot price of about $4,756 per ounce [6][8] - Bitcoin, described as "digital gold," has experienced a powerful rally, with its supply capped at 21 million coins, contributing to its appeal as a scarce asset [12] Investment Strategies - A diversified investment approach is recommended, including traditional assets like gold and cryptocurrencies, as well as exposure to tech stocks, particularly in the Nasdaq [5][15] - The Nasdaq Composite has surged roughly 52% since its low in April, driven by significant investments in artificial intelligence [15][16] Alternative Assets - Art is highlighted as an alternative asset with low correlation to the stock market, offering unique opportunities for portfolio diversification [20] - Platforms like Masterworks allow investors to buy fractional shares in high-value artworks, yielding notable returns [21]

Core Viewpoint - The Nasdaq Composite has shown strong performance, returning at least 20% for three consecutive years, with a notable increase of 43.4% in 2023, 28.6% in 2024, and 20.3% in 2025, indicating potential for continued growth into 2026 as the current bull market progresses [2]. Historical Performance - The Nasdaq Composite reached a peak of 20,173 on December 16, 2024, before entering bear market territory, closing over 24% below its record high on April 8, 2025. This low point marked the beginning of a new bull market, the seventh since 1990 [4]. - The Nasdaq has increased by 54% since the current bull market began in April 2025, and historical trends suggest further gains are likely before the bull market concludes [6]. Bull Market Characteristics - A bull market is defined as starting when a bear market reaches its lowest point, requiring a 20% increase from that low and a new record high to be confirmed [5]. - The Nasdaq Composite has historically returned an average of 71% in the first year and 17% in the second year of a bull market, with an average return of 281% across the last six bull markets over approximately five years [9][10]. Investment Opportunities - Investors can gain exposure to the Nasdaq Composite through index funds such as the Fidelity Nasdaq Composite ETF or the Invesco QQQ ETF [8].

Group 1 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 reached new record highs, with the Dow increasing by 238 points, or 0.5%, and the S&P rising by 0.7% [1] - The Nasdaq Composite also gained 0.8%, although it remains significantly below its all-time high levels [1] Group 2 - The Russell 2000 index, which tracks smaller market capitalization stocks, rose by 0.8% on Friday, indicating a shift in investor focus away from popular tech stocks [2] - This performance suggests that investors are diversifying their investments beyond the major tech stocks [2]

When adjusted for inflation, the real month-over-month changes for each index become 0.4% for the S&P 500, 1.2% for the Dow 30, and -0.1% for the Nasdaq. The charts require little explanation. The first 15 years of the 21st century was not kind to equity investors. However, the market has bounced back over the last 10 years with each index growing 138% (S&P 500), 118% (Dow), and 144% (Nasdaq) in real terms. The indexes differ in several key ways such as weighting methods, coverage, and criteria for includin ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses historical correlations between U.S. presidential terms and S&P 500 returns, suggesting that the stock market may experience significant gains during the sixth year of a two-term presidency, particularly under Donald Trump [2][4][7]. Group 1: Historical Performance of S&P 500 - Since 1950, the S&P 500 has shown average returns of 3.4%, 6.9%, 22.2%, 10.5%, and 15.5% during the first to fifth years of a two-term president's tenure [1]. - The average annual return of the S&P 500 during the sixth year of a two-term presidency over the last 75 years is 20.9% [7]. - In 2025, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite gained 13%, 16%, and 20% respectively, continuing the upward trend from Trump's first term [5]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Future Performance - A more aggressive rate-easing cycle by the Federal Reserve could lead to increased borrowing and investor willingness to accept higher valuations, potentially supporting continued market gains [7]. - The ongoing AI revolution, characterized by strong demand for AI infrastructure and enterprise adoption, may further fuel the S&P 500's bull market [8]. Group 3: Market Valuation Concerns - The Shiller Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio, which averaged 17.3 since 1871, reached 40.23 by the end of 2025, indicating the second priciest stock market in 155 years [12]. - Historical data shows that Shiller P/E readings above 30 are unsustainable, often leading to declines in major indexes ranging from 20% to 89% [13]. Group 4: Potential Risks to Market Trends - The article highlights the risk of a potential AI bubble bursting, which could undermine the current bull market [14]. - Trump's tariff and trade policies have shown a negative impact on labor productivity, employment, sales, and profits for affected companies, which could pose challenges in the upcoming year [16].

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite are key stock market indexes that reflect the performance of different segments of the U.S. stock market [1] Group 1 - The S&P 500 index measures the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index that includes 30 significant publicly traded companies [1] - The Nasdaq Composite index is heavily weighted towards technology companies and includes over 3,000 stocks [1]

Core Points - Major stock indexes experienced gains on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 131 points, or 0.3%, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite up by 0.4% [1] - The rise in futures was attributed to a strong Japanese government bond auction and EU inflation data, which helped stabilize yields after a sharp increase at the beginning of December [2]

Core Insights - The stock market experienced significant gains, with the Dow rising by 733 points, or 1.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite increased by 1.8% and the S&P 500 by 1.6% [1]. Market Performance - The major indexes showed a recovery from earlier volatility, with the Nasdaq initially struggling but later stabilizing [2]. - Overall market sentiment improved as Wall Street began to buy the dip, indicating a shift in investor confidence [1].