Core Insights - The article explores the effectiveness of buying major stock indices, specifically the Nasdaq and S&P 500, after significant market declines as a potential investment strategy [1][22]. Strategy Analysis - The initial analysis focuses on a classic Buy & Hold strategy, which involves entering a long position at market open and holding it for 10 consecutive trading sessions [2][3]. - The performance metrics for the Buy & Hold strategy show substantial profits over time, but also highlight significant drawdowns during bear markets [4]. Strategy Variations - **Strategy 1**: A basic Buy & Hold strategy yielded a net profit of $258,500 for S&P 500 and $439,725 for Nasdaq, but with maximum drawdowns of $71,687.50 and $125,765 respectively [4]. - **Strategy 2**: Introduced a 3-day pullback filter, but results were disappointing, with net profits of $106,337.50 for S&P 500 and $116,415 for Nasdaq, and an increase in erratic performance [10]. - **Strategy 3**: Implemented a deeper pullback and moving average filter, resulting in improved metrics with a net profit of $229,850 for S&P 500 and $372,205 for Nasdaq, alongside reduced maximum drawdowns [15]. - **Strategy 4**: Added a momentum filter, leading to a net profit of $153,612.50 for S&P 500 and $209,760 for Nasdaq, with a significant reduction in maximum drawdown to a third of the original value [21]. Conclusions - The analysis concludes that waiting for significant market declines can provide favorable long entry points in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, although developing a reliable strategy remains complex [22][24].

Market Activity - Trading activity is expected to be subdued on Friday with thin volumes and an early market close at 1 PM ET due to the Thanksgiving holiday [1] - Futures showed slight increases with Dow futures up 0.11%, S&P futures up 0.10%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.18% [1] Futures Trading - An outage on CME Group's platform disrupted futures trading, attributed to a technical issue at CyrusOne data centers [2] - Positive investor sentiment is supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December [2] Federal Reserve Outlook - Major averages closed positively on Wednesday, marking the fourth consecutive session of gains as traders anticipated a rate cut by the Fed [3] - Dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have increased optimism, with the probability of a quarter-point rate cut rising to 82.9% from 30.1% in the previous week according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool [3] Leadership Speculation - Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, is considered a frontrunner for the next Fed Chair, aligning with President Trump's preference for low-interest rates [4] - The Dow increased by 314.67 points (0.7%) to 47,427.12, the Nasdaq rose by 189.10 points (0.8%) to 23,214.69, and the S&P 500 advanced by 46.73 points (0.7%) to 6,812.61 [4] International Market Performance - Asian stocks showed mixed results, influenced by disappointing industrial profits data from China and concerns over the property market due to China Vanke's bond repayment delay [5] - European stocks experienced subdued trading as investors assessed recent economic data from the region and the U.S. [5] Commodity Prices - West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures increased by $0.43 (0.73%) to $59.08 per barrel [6] - Gold futures rose by $19.10 (0.45%) to $4,221.40 per ounce [6]

Core Insights - The COT Report provides insights into the positioning of different types of traders, indicating potential market trends and reversals [1][3]. Group 1: COT Report Overview - The COT Report is published weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and categorizes futures open interest by trader type, applicable to various commodities and financial futures [3]. - It offers a detailed view of market dynamics, showing who is long and who is short, and how these positions evolve over time [5]. Group 2: Managed Money Insights - Managed money, including hedge funds and CTAs, typically holds positions for 6 to 12 months, indicating a commitment to their trades [4]. - When managed money builds significant positions, it can sustain market trends, but extreme positioning may signal a potential market saturation [6].

Core Viewpoint - Dow futures remained flat following a rebound in technology stocks on Wall Street, indicating a cautious market sentiment [1] Group 1 - Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were trading down by approximately 33 points, or 0.1% [1] - Nasdaq futures declined by 95 points, or 0.3%, reflecting a broader pullback in technology stocks [1]