ONE Gas (OGS) appears an attractive pick, as it has been recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). This upgrade is essentially a reflection of an upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.The sole determinant of the Zacks rating is a company's changing earnings picture. The Zacks Consensus Estimate -- the consensus of EPS estimates from the sell-side analysts covering the stock -- for the current and following years is tracked by the system.Since a changi ...

Industry Overview - Natural gas distribution pipelines are essential for delivering natural gas to consumers, with nearly 3 million pipelines in the U.S. [1] - Rising domestic natural gas output is driven by increased exports and public awareness of emissions reduction [2] - The natural gas sector requires consistent funding for maintenance and repair of aging infrastructure, with anticipated interest rate cuts expected to lower capital servicing costs [3] Demand and Growth Projections - Natural gas consumption for electricity generation is projected to contribute nearly 40% in 2025 and 2026 [5] - U.S. natural gas exports are expected to grow by 3.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025 and 2.1 Bcf/d in 2026, with export volumes increasing by 8% in 2025 and 7% in 2026 [5] Company Comparisons - MDU Resources has a market capitalization of $3.43 billion, while Southwest Gas has $5.11 billion [6] - MDU's 2025 earnings per share (EPS) estimate has increased by 1.1% to 95 cents, while Southwest Gas's EPS estimate has increased by 4.8% to $3.72 [7] - MDU has a return on equity (ROE) of 9.86%, compared to Southwest Gas's 6.76%, both above the industry average of 9.24% [8] Financial Metrics - MDU has a lower debt-to-capital ratio of 44.44% compared to Southwest Gas's 57.36%, with the industry average at 50.49% [11] - MDU's stock has lost 0.5% over the past three months, while Southwest Gas has declined by 2.3% [10][12] - MDU's dividend yield is 3.1%, while Southwest Gas's is 3.49%, both exceeding the S&P 500 average of 1.24% [13] Valuation - Both companies are trading at a premium on a forward 12-month P/E basis, with MDU at 17.16X and Southwest Gas at 17.98X, compared to the industry average of 14.84X [14] Conclusion - Both MDU Resources and Southwest Gas are positioned well for growth, but MDU is favored due to its superior ROE, debt management, and stock performance [15]

Group 1: Earnings Performance - ONE Gas reported quarterly earnings of $1.98 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.85 per share, and up from $1.75 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 7.03% [1] - The company posted revenues of $935.19 million for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 16.38%, compared to year-ago revenues of $758.32 million [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Outlook - ONE Gas shares have increased by approximately 13.3% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has declined by 3.3% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.55 on revenues of $407.66 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $4.26 on revenues of $2.34 billion [7] Group 3: Industry Context - The Utility - Gas Distribution industry is currently ranked in the top 12% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8] - Another company in the same industry, Northwest Natural, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.09 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +23.7%, with revenues anticipated to be $478.17 million, up 10.3% from the previous year [9][10]

Company Performance - Spire reported quarterly earnings of $3.60 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.70 per share, but showing an increase from $3.45 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of -2.70% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.05 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.97%, and down from $1.13 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Spire has surpassed consensus EPS estimates only once and has not beaten consensus revenue estimates during the same period [2] Stock Outlook - Spire shares have increased approximately 13.6% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with a -5.5% decline in the S&P 500 [3] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters and any recent changes to these expectations [4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is -$0.13 on revenues of $412.11 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $4.50 on revenues of $2.53 billion [7] Industry Context - The Utility - Gas Distribution industry, to which Spire belongs, is currently ranked in the top 12% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook for stocks in this sector [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors or through tools like the Zacks Rank [5][6]

Company Overview - ONE Gas (OGS) is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings, with a projected EPS of $1.85, reflecting a +5.7% change, and revenues anticipated at $803.58 million, up 6% from the previous year [3][12] - The stock's performance may be influenced by how actual results compare to these estimates, with a potential stock price increase if results exceed expectations [1][2] Earnings Estimates and Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 2.23% lower over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4] - The Most Accurate Estimate for ONE Gas is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +0.11%, suggesting a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [10][11] Earnings Surprise History - In the last reported quarter, ONE Gas had an expected EPS of $1.33 but delivered $1.34, resulting in a surprise of +0.75% [12] - Over the last four quarters, ONE Gas has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [13] Industry Context - In the Zacks Utility - Gas Distribution industry, Spire (SR) is expected to post earnings of $3.70 per share, indicating a +7.3% year-over-year change, with revenues projected at $1.09 billion, down 3% from the previous year [17] - The consensus EPS estimate for Spire has been revised 1.5% higher, but with an Earnings ESP of 0.00%, it is difficult to predict a beat against the consensus EPS estimate [18]