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South Bow Corporation(SOBO) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-11-14 16:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported normalized EBITDA of $250 million for the third quarter, with distributable cash flow of $236 million benefiting from a current tax recovery of $71 million due to changes in U.S. tax legislation [12][14] - The outlook for distributable cash flow is revised to approximately $700 million for 2025, with an effective tax rate expected to range between 20-21% [12][14] - The normalized EBITDA guidance for 2025 is reaffirmed at $1.01 billion, with a forecast of $1.03 billion for 2026 [12][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The marketing segment is expected to see normalized EBITDA approximately $25 million higher due to recovery from losses recorded in 2025 [13] - The InterAlberta and other segments are projected to increase normalized EBITDA by approximately $10 million, reflecting cash flows from the BlackRod project ramping up in the second half of 2026 [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates favorable conditions for supply growth in late 2026 to early 2027, which is expected to exceed current egress capacity [22] - The ongoing dialogue between Canada and the U.S. regarding energy solutions is seen as a positive development for the company's market positioning [5][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on growing its business and enhancing competitiveness while ensuring safe operations and financial strength [4][16] - There is an emphasis on leveraging pre-invested corridors for future projects, particularly in Alberta and the U.S. [19] - The company aims to mature and execute its growth portfolio through both organic and inorganic opportunities [35] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the integrity of the pipeline system following remedial actions and inspections, aiming to return Keystone to baseline operations by 2026 [8][10] - The company is optimistic about the potential for growth in customer supply and the overall market environment [22] Other Important Information - The company has successfully completed the BlackRod project on schedule and within budget, with facility commissioning work underway [10] - A quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share has been approved, payable on January 15 to shareholders of record on December 31 [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on major projects and crude pipeline - Management confirmed they are providing advisory support for a crude pipeline project in Alberta but emphasized that it is limited to advisory roles [19][20] Question: Outlook on marketing and crude spreads - Management anticipates improved conditions for egress and supply growth by late 2026 to early 2027, with expectations for wider spreads [22] Question: Details on tax optimization and U.S. legislation changes - Tax benefits were derived from extended interest deductions and accelerated tax pools, with expectations for these benefits to continue into 2026 [26][27] Question: Transition agreements and cost savings - Management indicated that optimization efforts have not been included in the EBITDA outlook but are expected to contribute positively in the future [29][30] Question: Organic growth opportunities and project types - The company is exploring various growth opportunities in both Canada and the U.S., with a focus on customer needs [34][35] Question: CapEx assumptions for 2026 - Management suggested that an average investment of around $100 million per year is necessary to achieve the targeted EBITDA growth [43][44] Question: Variable toll settlements and P&L impact - Management confirmed that remaining payments related to variable toll settlements would be normalized out of EBITDA [45][46]