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China Financials -4Q25 data shows still decent consumption payment growth despite some moderation
2026-02-24 14:19
Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Financials - **Market Sentiment**: Attractive outlook for the industry [5] Key Points on Payment Growth - **NetsUnion and UnionPay Performance**: - Payment growth for NetsUnion and UnionPay moderated to **9.3%** year-over-year (yoy) and **8.7%** yoy in 4Q25, down from **17.9%** yoy and **15.4%** yoy in 3Q25, respectively [2][8] - This moderation aligns with a slowdown in official retail sales growth, which decreased to **3.7%** yoy from **4.5%** yoy in the previous quarter [8] - **Bank Card Consumption**: - Bank card consumption payments remained weak, showing a decline of **1.5%** yoy in 4Q25, although it was more stable compared to online payment channels [3][8] - Bank card payments account for approximately **50%** of all consumption payments [8] - **Total System Payment Volume**: - Growth in total system payment volume moderated to **5%** yoy in 4Q25, following a rebound to **15%** yoy in 3Q25 [10][8] Factors Affecting Payment Growth - **Consumption Shift**: - There is a notable shift in consumption payments towards online channels, impacting traditional bank card usage [9] - **Banking Sector Caution**: - Banks are being conservative in credit card loan allocations to manage retail risks, which may lead to continued weakness in bank card fees and consumption credit growth in 2026 [3][9] Additional Insights - **Impact of Subsidies and Regulations**: - The decline in consumption trade-in subsidies and VAT tax examinations of online retailers have contributed to the slowdown in payment growth [2] - **Future Outlook**: - Despite the current moderation, the overall sentiment remains that the banking sector's earnings may not be significantly impacted by the weak growth in bank card fees and consumption credit [3] Conclusion - The data from 4Q25 indicates a moderation in payment growth across key platforms, reflecting broader economic trends and shifts in consumer behavior towards online payments. The banking sector is expected to remain cautious in its lending practices, which may influence future growth dynamics in the financial services industry in China.