Core Viewpoint - The real estate market during the Spring Festival is facing challenges due to a significant decrease in new housing supply, leading to a reliance on existing inventory and promotional activities to attract buyers [5][6][14]. Group 1: Market Supply and Demand - In January, Chengdu saw only 4,074 new homes enter the market, a decrease of approximately 37.8% compared to 6,548 units in the same month last year [6]. - The limited new supply means that available properties during the Spring Festival will primarily consist of existing inventory, with many projects unable to launch new offerings in time for the holiday [5][6]. - The total available area for sale in Chengdu as of the end of January was 16.864 million square meters, with an average clearance period of 17.2 months [7]. Group 2: Promotional Activities - Many developers are offering significant discounts and incentives during the Spring Festival to clear existing inventory, with various projects announcing special promotions [7][8][10]. - Specific promotions include cash discounts, home appliance gifts, and other incentives aimed at attracting buyers during the holiday period [8][10][11]. - The trend of "not closing" during the Spring Festival is becoming less common, with several projects opting to close during the holiday due to the lack of new supply [5][14]. Group 3: Shifts in Buying Patterns - The focus of "returning home for property purchases" is shifting to suburban areas and new towns around Chengdu, with various promotional activities being launched to attract buyers in these regions [15]. - Events such as "New Year Festival + Property Exhibition" and targeted marketing campaigns are being implemented in areas like Xinjin and Pengzhou to engage returning residents [15]. - Industry experts suggest that while the Spring Festival is a key time for property purchases, many transactions may occur after the holiday, particularly in March when additional discounts and incentives are expected to be offered [15][17].

Group 1: Current Real Estate Market Situation - The real estate market is experiencing a stark contrast between new home "false prosperity" and a "cliff-like" decline in second-hand homes, with a 7.23% year-on-year drop in average second-hand housing prices across 100 cities in April [4][5][6] - In some cities, new home prices have plummeted significantly, with examples showing a drop from 12,000 yuan per square meter to 4,388 yuan per square meter, indicating severe price reductions and unsold inventory [4][6][7] - The disparity in housing prices between first-tier cities and third- or fourth-tier cities is widening, leading to a significant loss of wealth for many families [6][7] Group 2: Investment Considerations - With declining deposit rates, cash savings are still considered a safer option compared to real estate investments, which have shown a depreciation of 7.23% year-on-year [9][19] - Experts suggest maintaining cash liquidity as a strategy during economic instability, with historical examples from business leaders advocating for reduced debt and increased cash flow [11][19] - The current market conditions indicate a significant decline in first-time homebuyer demand, with a 60% drop in purchasing intent among unmarried individuals over 30 years old [13] Group 3: Policy and Market Confidence - Despite recent policy measures aimed at stimulating the housing market, such as interest rate cuts, market confidence remains low, as evidenced by a surge in new listings following the removal of sales restrictions [14] - The inventory pressure is substantial, with over 10 million vacant homes nationwide, particularly in third- and fourth-tier cities, leading to a lack of upward price pressure [13][14] - The overall sentiment suggests that the era of continuously rising property prices has ended, and cash is viewed as a critical asset for future investment opportunities [19]