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Oracle Rises 44.5% YTD on Cloud Strength: Buy the Stock Now or Hold?
ZACKSยท 2025-11-11 17:21
Core Insights - Oracle has achieved a remarkable 44.5% increase in share price year to date in 2025, significantly outperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector, primarily due to strong growth in its cloud infrastructure business [1][8]. Financial Performance - In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Oracle reported total revenues of $14.9 billion, reflecting a 12% growth in constant currency, with cloud revenues increasing by 27% to $7.2 billion and cloud infrastructure revenues surging 54% to $3.3 billion [3][4]. - Remaining performance obligations have skyrocketed by 359% year over year, reaching $455 billion, indicating substantial growth potential [2]. Growth Projections - Management has provided ambitious guidance, forecasting Oracle Cloud Infrastructure revenues to grow 77% to $18 billion in fiscal 2026, with projections of $32 billion, $73 billion, $114 billion, and ultimately $144 billion by fiscal 2030 [3][4]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 revenues stands at $66.89 billion, suggesting a growth of 16.54% from the previous year [5]. Strategic Developments - Oracle's recent AI World conference highlighted its comprehensive AI strategy, including the introduction of Oracle AI Database 26ai and the Oracle AI Data Platform, aimed at enhancing interoperability and simplifying data preparation for AI implementations [6][7]. - The company has deepened partnerships with major cloud providers like Google Cloud and Amazon Web Services, showcasing a pragmatic approach to customer data management [7]. Competitive Landscape - The cloud infrastructure market remains highly competitive, with Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform holding significant market shares. AWS leads with approximately 30% market share, while Microsoft Azure has reported a 39% revenue growth [8][10]. - Oracle differentiates itself by embedding its infrastructure directly within major cloud providers' environments, which has allowed it to maintain a competitive edge [11]. Valuation Concerns - Oracle's current price-to-earnings ratio stands at 32.73 times, above the industry average of 30.72 times and its own five-year median of 22.13 times, indicating a premium valuation that reflects investor enthusiasm but also introduces execution risks [14]. - Investors may consider maintaining positions due to the company's strong competitive positioning and substantial contracted backlog, while new investors might wait for more favorable entry points [17].