Tenaris (NYSE:TS) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 19, 2026 07:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsCarlos Gómez Álzaga - CFOGabriel Podskubka - COOGiovanni Sardagna - Investor Relations OfficerGuillermo Moreno - President, U.S. OperationsPaolo Rocca - Chairman and CEOConference Call ParticipantsAlessandro Pozzi - Senior Equity Research AnalystArun Jayaram - Senior Equity Research AnalystJamie Franklin - VP of Energy Equity Research and Senior AnalystKévin Roger - Head of Energy Equipment & Services and Senior Equity ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Oil Services - **Focus**: Implications of the political situation in Venezuela on global oil services companies Core Insights and Arguments - **Venezuela's Oil Production Recovery**: - Production may increase slightly in the short term, potentially reaching several hundred thousand barrels per day over the next 2-3 years if a US-supported government is established and sanctions are lifted [2][10] - Historical peak production was approximately 3 million barrels per day in the mid-2000s, with Venezuela holding about 20% of global proven oil reserves [2][11] - **Investment Requirements**: - Any recovery in production will be gradual and necessitate substantial investment [2] - Companies like Chevron, ENI, and Repsol currently have operations in Venezuela, with Chevron being the only US oil major still active [17] - **OCTG Market Potential**: - Demand for Oil Country Tubular Goods (OCTG) in Venezuela could reach 140,000 to 240,000 tons by 2030, translating to a market size of $0.6 to $1 billion [4][30] - The current addressable OCTG market for Tenaris and Vallourec is estimated at 5.7 million tons and approximately $18 billion, indicating that the Venezuelan market could add 3-4% in volume and 3-5% in dollar terms [36] - **Tenaris and Vallourec's Position**: - Tenaris has a long-standing presence in Venezuela and supplies Chevron's OCTG needs, benefiting from logistical advantages due to local operations [3][27] - Vallourec, while currently absent from Venezuela, could supply the market from its Brazilian plant, leveraging a competitive cost base [28] - **US Oil Services Companies**: - Companies like SLB, Halliburton, and Weatherford International are positioned to benefit from increased activity in Venezuela [8][44] - SLB has indicated its ability to scale operations in Venezuela if activity increases, while Halliburton and Weatherford have historical ties and expertise that could be advantageous [8][45][46] Additional Important Insights - **Long-term Oil Price Implications**: - A recovery in Venezuelan production to 2 million barrels per day by 2030 could pose significant downside risks to long-term oil prices, potentially reducing Brent oil price forecasts by $4 per barrel [11] - Current estimates suggest that Brent prices could average $58 per barrel if production declines, and $54 per barrel if production increases [10] - **Technical Requirements for OCTG**: - The extraction of heavy crude from the Orinoco Oil Belt requires complex, high-performance OCTG solutions due to the challenging conditions [29] - The majority of Venezuela's proven reserves are high-sulfur and heavy crude, necessitating robust materials and testing protocols for well integrity [29] - **Rig Count and Well Drilling**: - The estimated rig count needed to support a production level of 2 million barrels per day by 2030 is between 40 to 50 active rigs, with an annual drilling of 480 to 600 new wells [31][32] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and potential implications for the oil services industry stemming from the evolving situation in Venezuela, highlighting both opportunities and risks for companies involved in this sector.

Core Insights - Shell plc has awarded a significant contract to Vallourec S.A. for the supply of OCTG products and services for the Orca project offshore Brazil, following a competitive bidding process [1] Group 1: Contract Details - Vallourec will deliver OCTG products, including seamless pipes and VAM® premium connections, for Shell's offshore operations at the Orca project [1][9] - The contract encompasses the entire OCTG requirements for the project, which involves drilling 10 wells and is estimated to require 12,000 to 15,000 tons of pipe [2][9] - The pipes will range from 4.5 inches to 18 inches in diameter and will be made from both carbon and stainless-steel materials [2] Group 2: Additional Services - Vallourec will provide a range of value-added services, including desk engineering, material logistics, and supervision of offshore operations, to enhance Shell's operational efficiency [3] - These services aim to reduce risks associated with drilling activities and support the overall project execution [3] Group 3: Project Timeline - Drilling operations for the Orca project are scheduled to commence in April 2027, with production expected to start in 2029 [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - Vallourec has secured a significant contract with Shell for the supply of OCTG products and services for the Orca project in Brazil, highlighting its competitive edge in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Contract Details - The agreement involves the supply of OCTG products for Shell's offshore operations, specifically for the Orca project, with drilling expected to commence in April 2027 [2]. - The current drilling plan includes 10 wells, requiring an estimated 12,000 to 15,000 tons of pipes [2]. - The contract covers a full OCTG scope, including seamless pipes and VAM premium connections, with sizes ranging from 4.5" to 18", utilizing both carbon and stainless-steel tubulars [3]. Group 2: Value-Added Services - Vallourec will provide comprehensive value-added services, including desk engineering, material coordination, rig preparation, offshore supervision, and rig return repairs, to enhance Shell's operational efficiency [3]. Group 3: Company Insights - Philippe Guillemot, CEO of Vallourec, emphasized the company's capability to support customers across the entire value chain, reinforcing the value of VAM premium connections in Brazil [4]. - Vallourec is recognized as a leader in premium tubular solutions for energy markets and demanding industrial applications, with a strong focus on innovation and R&D [5].

Core Insights - Vallourec has been awarded a significant contract by Petrobras for the supply of OCTG products and services, potentially generating up to USD 1 billion in revenue from 2026 to 2029, marking the largest award in terms of volume and revenue since Petrobras implemented an open tender strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Contract Details - The contract encompasses the full scope of OCTG supply, including seamless pipes and VAM premium connections for offshore wells ranging from 4.5" to 18", as well as carbon and stainless-steel tubulars and related accessories [2]. - Vallourec will provide extensive value-added services both onshore and offshore, including engineering, material coordination, rig preparation, offshore supervision, and repairs, aimed at enhancing Petrobras' operational efficiency [2]. Group 2: Company Positioning - This contract reinforces Vallourec's leadership in VAM premium connections and Vallourec Tubular Services in Brazil, showcasing the company's strong market position [3]. - Philippe Guillemot, CEO of Vallourec, emphasized the company's capability to meet complex customer requirements and the importance of its long-standing partnership with Petrobras, built on trust and technical excellence [4]. Group 3: Company Overview - Vallourec is recognized as a global leader in premium tubular solutions for energy markets and industrial applications, employing nearly 14,000 people across more than 20 countries [5]. - The company focuses on delivering innovative and competitive tubular solutions, supported by advanced R&D efforts [5].