Core Viewpoint - Louisiana-Pacific's recent earnings report indicates a decline in performance, with adjusted earnings surpassing estimates but showing a significant year-over-year decrease, while net sales fell short of expectations and decreased compared to the previous year [3][5]. Earnings Overview - In Q4 2025, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were three cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of six cents by 150%, but down 97.1% from an adjusted EPS of $1.03 in the previous year [5]. - Consolidated net sales were $567 million, missing the consensus estimate of $603 million by 6% and declining 16.7% from $681 million year-over-year, primarily due to lower OSB prices and reduced sales volumes [5]. Segment Performance - Siding segment net sales increased by 6% year-over-year to $384 million, driven by higher sales volumes and prices, with adjusted EBITDA growing 33% to $97 million [6]. - OSB segment net sales fell 49% to $136 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA loss of $39 million, compared to a $50 million profit the previous year [6]. Margins and Profitability - Gross profit decreased by 47.5% year-over-year to $85 million, with gross margin compressing by 880 basis points to 15% [7]. - Adjusted EBITDA dropped to $50 million, down 60% from $125 million last year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 8.8%, a decline of 960 basis points [7]. Balance Sheet and Shareholder Returns - As of 2025, Louisiana-Pacific had cash and cash equivalents of $292 million, down from $340 million in 2024, with total liquidity at $1.1 billion [8]. - The company invested $291 million in capital expenditures, paid $78 million in dividends, and repurchased 0.6 million shares for $61 million during 2025 [8]. Q1 & 2026 Outlook - For Q1 2026, Siding net sales are expected to be between $350 million and $355 million, approximately down 12% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $80 million and $85 million [10]. - For the full year 2026, Siding net sales are anticipated to be about $1.7 billion, nearly 2% growth year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be around $450 million [11]. Estimate Trends - Following the earnings release, there has been a downward trend in estimates, with the consensus estimate shifting down by 92.22% [12]. VGM Scores - Louisiana-Pacific currently holds a subpar Growth Score of D and a Momentum Score of F, while achieving a C on the value side, placing it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy [13]. Overall Outlook - The overall trend in estimates has been downward, leading to a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), indicating expectations of below-average returns in the coming months [14].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, the company reported net sales of $567 million, EBITDA of $50 million, and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.03 [6][7] - For the full year, net sales reached $2.7 billion, with EBITDA of $436 million and adjusted earnings per share of $2.65 [16][17] - The EBITDA margin for the siding business improved to 26%, up 1 percentage point from 2024 [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The siding business grew by 8% for the full year, with a 4% increase in both net selling prices and sales volumes [7][15] - ExpertFinish saw a significant volume increase of 35% in Q4, while prime volumes declined by 5% [13] - OSB operations faced challenges with a year-over-year revenue decrease of $129 million and EBITDA decline of $95 million due to unfavorable supply-demand dynamics [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Single-family housing starts were down approximately 10% in Q3 2025, with further weakness expected in Q4 [6] - The company noted a stronger market presence in the Upper Midwest, which helped mitigate impacts from softer markets in the Southeast [9] - OSB prices reached their lowest levels in 20 years, significantly impacting revenue [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to drive growth, gain market share, and deliver product innovation while generating shareholder value [5] - Integration of operations under a chief commercial officer and chief operating officer structure is expected to enhance sales synergies and operational efficiency [11] - The company plans to invest approximately $400 million in capital expenditures for 2026, focusing on sustaining maintenance and strategic growth [23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged affordability challenges due to tariffs and economic uncertainty affecting consumer confidence [5] - The company anticipates a difficult first quarter in 2026, with expected volume declines of 15%-20% [20] - Despite current challenges, management remains confident in the long-term growth potential of the SmartSide product line [24] Other Important Information - The company achieved a total incident rate of 0.62 in 2025, earning the APA's Safest Company Award for the third consecutive year [12] - The cash balance at year-end was $292 million, with an undrawn revolver of $750 million, providing over $1 billion in liquidity [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: What factors are influencing siding revenue guidance? - Management expects improvement in shed demand to be the dominant factor, alongside overall housing normalization [27][28] Question: Are there risks of a shift to lower-cost siding materials? - Affordability remains a headwind, with some movement towards vinyl, but the company believes in the value of its SmartSide offerings [29][30] Question: What is the demand outlook for the ExpertFinish product? - Demand remains strong, with macro trends favoring the product, and the company has come off allocation due to operational improvements [33][34] Question: How is the competitive environment in siding evolving? - The company is gaining market share across segments, with a focus on new construction and repair/remodel markets [43][44] Question: What is the outlook for OSB demand and capacity management? - The company is focused on matching supply with demand, with optimism for a rebound in prices and demand as the building season approaches [69][70]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, the company reported net sales of $567 million, EBITDA of $50 million, and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.03 [6][7] - For the full year, net sales reached $2.7 billion, with EBITDA of $436 million and adjusted earnings per share of $2.65 [16][17] - The EBITDA margin for the siding business improved to 26%, up 1 percentage point from the previous year [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The siding business grew by 8% for the full year, with a 4% increase in net selling prices and a 4% increase in sales volumes [7][15] - ExpertFinish product line saw an impressive 35% growth in Q4, while prime volumes declined by 5% [13] - OSB segment faced significant challenges, resulting in a year-over-year decrease of $129 million in revenue and $95 million in EBITDA due to unfavorable supply-demand dynamics [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Single-family housing starts were down approximately 10% in Q3 2025, with further weakness expected in Q4 [6][10] - The company noted a stronger market presence in the Upper Midwest, which helped mitigate impacts from softer markets in the Southeast [9] - OSB prices reached their lowest levels in 20 years, significantly impacting the segment's performance [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on driving growth, gaining market share, and delivering product innovation while managing costs effectively [5][10] - Integration of operations under a chief commercial officer and chief operating officer structure is expected to enhance sales synergies and operational efficiency [11] - Capital investments are being adjusted in response to market conditions, with a focus on sustaining maintenance and strategic growth [23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by tariffs, economic policy uncertainty, and deteriorating consumer confidence affecting housing affordability [5][6] - The company anticipates a difficult first quarter of 2026, with expected declines in total volumes of 15%-20% [20] - Despite current challenges, management remains optimistic about long-term growth potential, particularly in the siding segment [24] Other Important Information - The company achieved a total incident rate of 0.62 in 2025, earning the APA's Safest Company Award for the third consecutive year [12] - The cash balance at year-end was $292 million, with an undrawn revolver of $750 million, providing over $1 billion in liquidity [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: What factors are influencing siding revenue guidance? - Management expects improvement in shed demand to be the dominant factor, alongside overall housing normalization [26][27] Question: Are there risks of a shift to lower-cost siding materials? - Affordability remains a headwind, with some movement towards vinyl, but the company believes in the value of its SmartSide products [28][29] Question: What is the demand outlook for the ExpertFinish product? - Demand remains strong due to macro trends, and the company has come off allocation due to operational improvements [31][32] Question: How is the competitive environment in siding evolving? - The company is confident in gaining market share across segments, despite challenges in the housing market [40][41] Question: What is the outlook for OSB demand and capacity management? - The focus is on matching supply with demand, with optimism for a rebound in pricing due to competitor mill closures [66][67]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, the company reported net sales of $567 million, EBITDA of $50 million, and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.03 [5][16] - For the full year, net sales reached $2.7 billion, with EBITDA of $436 million and adjusted earnings per share of $2.65 [16] - The EBITDA margin for the siding business improved to 26%, up 1 percentage point from 2024, while the OSB segment faced significant price declines, resulting in a low EBITDA margin [14][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The siding business grew by 8% in 2025, with a 4% increase in net selling prices and a 4% increase in sales volumes [5][16] - ExpertFinish product line saw a remarkable 35% growth in Q4, while prime volumes declined by 5% [12] - OSB segment faced a revenue decrease of $129 million and EBITDA decline of $95 million due to unfavorable supply-demand dynamics [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Single-family housing starts were down approximately 10% in Q3 2025, with further weakness expected in Q4 [5] - The company noted a stronger market presence in the Upper Midwest, while being modestly insulated from softer markets in the Southeast [7] - OSB prices reached their lowest levels in 20 years, significantly impacting the segment's performance [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to drive growth, gain market share, and deliver product innovation while generating shareholder value [4] - Integration of operations under a chief commercial officer and chief operating officer structure is expected to enhance sales synergies and operational efficiency [10] - The company plans to invest approximately $400 million in capital expenditures for 2026, focusing on sustaining maintenance and strategic growth [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged affordability challenges due to tariffs, economic policy uncertainty, and deteriorating consumer confidence [4] - The company anticipates a difficult first quarter in 2026, with expected volume declines of 15%-20% and a weaker order file [20] - Despite current challenges, management remains confident in the long-term growth potential of the SmartSide product line and its market share gains [23] Other Important Information - The company achieved a total incident rate of 0.62 in 2025, earning the APA's Safest Company Award for the third consecutive year [11] - The company has over $1 billion in liquidity, with a cash balance of $292 million and an undrawn revolver of $750 million [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: What factors are influencing LP siding revenue guidance? - Management expects improvement in shed demand to be the dominant factor, alongside overall housing normalization [26][27] Question: Are there risks of a shift to lower-cost siding materials? - Affordability remains a headwind, with some movement towards vinyl, but the company believes in the value of its SmartSide offerings [28][29] Question: What is the demand outlook for the ExpertFinish product? - ExpertFinish continues to outperform due to macro trends, and the company has come off allocation due to operational improvements [31][32] Question: How is the competitive environment in siding evolving? - The company is gaining share across segments and remains optimistic about opportunities in new construction and repair remodel [40][41] Question: What is the outlook for OSB demand and capacity management? - The company is focused on matching supply with demand and is optimistic about a favorable pricing environment due to competitor mill closures [67]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - West Fraser reported an adjusted EBITDA of -$79 million in Q4 2025, an improvement from -$144 million in the previous quarter, which included a $67 million out-of-period duty expense [4] - For the full year 2025, adjusted EBITDA was $56 million, down from $673 million in 2024 [4] - Cash flow from operations was negative $172 million in Q4, with net debt at $131 million, compared to a net cash position of $212 million reported last quarter [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The lumber segment posted an adjusted EBITDA of -$57 million in Q4, compared to -$123 million in Q3, excluding the $67 million export duty expense [7] - The North America EWP segment reported an adjusted EBITDA of -$24 million in Q4, compared to -$15 million in Q3, with a $239 million non-cash restructuring and impairment charge [8] - The pulp and paper segment reported an adjusted EBITDA of -$1 million in Q4, an improvement from -$6 million in Q3 [8] - The Europe segment's adjusted EBITDA was $4 million in Q4, up from $1 million in Q3, indicating a moderately improved business environment [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall Q4 results showed sequential EBITDA improvement supported by reduced log costs and lower manufacturing costs, although offset by lower lumber and OSB prices [9] - Southern yellow pine shipments were 6% lower quarter-over-quarter, while unit manufacturing costs were also lower [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on high-grading its mill portfolio, including closures of higher-cost assets and ramping up the Allendale OSB mill in South Carolina and the new Henderson lumber mill in Texas [5][15] - West Fraser has removed over 1.1 billion board feet of capacity since 2022, representing a 16% decrease in lumber operating capacity [15] - The company has invested nearly $1 billion in capital into its lumber business over the last four years to modernize assets and improve operational efficiency [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the difficult end markets in 2025 but emphasized a long-term focus on operational excellence and cost management [14][15] - The company remains optimistic about future prospects despite limited macro visibility and is actively managing its portfolio to be low-cost and diverse [17] Other Important Information - West Fraser had over $1.2 billion of available liquidity at year-end, providing financial flexibility to support capital allocation strategies [5][13] - The company is prepared to evaluate the impact of U.S. tariffs on operations and adjust forecasts as necessary [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide insights on margins between SPF and SYP in Q4? - Management noted that the pricing spread between SPF and SYP has started to close, reflecting adjustments in customer demand patterns [20][21] Question: How sustainable are the lower costs reported in Q4? - Management indicated that the trends in cost structure are a result of ongoing efforts to lower costs through capacity adjustments and modernization [23] Question: What are the M&A opportunities given the current lumber market? - Management emphasized the importance of asset quality and indicated a willingness to consider quality opportunities that strengthen the company during the bottom of the cycle [26][27] Question: How is the ramp-up of the Henderson Mill being managed in a muted demand environment? - Management stated that the Henderson Mill is in early stages of startup and is expected to replace existing volume in the market [30] Question: What is the outlook for housing measures and their impact on lumber demand? - Management expressed optimism about discussions on housing affordability but noted uncertainty regarding the timing and impact of potential measures [49][51]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - West Fraser generated an adjusted EBITDA of -$79 million in Q4 2025, an improvement from -$144 million in the prior quarter, which included a $67 million out-of-period duty expense [4] - For the full year 2025, adjusted EBITDA was $56 million, down from $673 million in 2024 [4] - Cash flow from operations was negative $172 million in Q4, with net debt at $131 million, compared to a net cash position of $212 million in the previous quarter [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The lumber segment reported an adjusted EBITDA of -$57 million in Q4, compared to -$123 million in Q3, excluding the $67 million duty expense [6] - The North America EWP segment had an adjusted EBITDA of -$24 million in Q4, worsening from -$15 million in Q3, with a $239 million non-cash restructuring charge [7] - The pulp and paper segment reported an adjusted EBITDA of -$1 million in Q4, an improvement from -$6 million in Q3 [8] - The Europe segment's adjusted EBITDA was $4 million in Q4, up from $1 million in Q3, indicating a moderately improved business environment [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall Q4 results showed sequential EBITDA improvement supported by reduced SPF log costs, lower southern yellow pine manufacturing costs, and lower OSB labor costs, despite lower lumber and North American OSB prices [9] - Southern yellow pine shipments were 6% lower quarter-over-quarter, while unit manufacturing costs also decreased [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has focused on high-grading its mill portfolio, including closures of higher-cost assets and ramping up the Allendale OSB mill in South Carolina and the new Henderson lumber mill in Texas [5] - Since 2022, West Fraser has removed over 1.1 billion board feet of capacity through mill closures, representing a 16% decrease in lumber operating capacity [14] - The company has invested nearly $1 billion in capital over the last four years to modernize assets and improve operational flexibility [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the difficult end markets in 2025 but emphasized a long-term focus on operational excellence and cost management [13] - The company remains optimistic about its future, particularly with the ramp-up of the Henderson Mill and ongoing portfolio optimization [14][17] - Management is cautious about the demand outlook for OSB compared to lumber, reflecting mixed sentiment from customers regarding growth in the repair and remodeling market [50] Other Important Information - The company had over $1.2 billion of available liquidity at year-end, providing financial flexibility to support capital allocation strategies [5][12] - Management is actively evaluating the impact of U.S. tariffs on operations and will adjust forecasts as necessary [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide insights on margins between SPF and SYP in Q4? - Management noted that the pricing spread between SPF and SYP has started to close, reflecting adjustments in customer demand patterns [20][21] Question: How sustainable are the lower costs observed in Q4? - Management indicated that the trends in cost structure are a result of efforts made over the past years to lower costs through capacity adjustments and modernization [22] Question: What are the M&A opportunities given the current lumber market? - Management emphasized the importance of asset quality and indicated that they are prepared to react to quality opportunities that may arise [25][26] Question: How should we view the ramp-up of the Henderson Mill in a muted demand environment? - Management stated that the Henderson Mill is in early stages of startup and is expected to replace existing volume in the market [29] Question: What is the outlook for housing measures from the administration? - Management expressed optimism about any measures that could improve housing affordability and demand for lumber, though the timing and impact remain uncertain [46][47] Question: What drives the difference in demand outlook for OSB versus lumber? - Management noted mixed customer sentiment regarding growth in the repair and remodeling market, leading to a cautious outlook for OSB [50]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year 2025, the company reported GAAP earnings of $324 million, or $0.45 per diluted share, on net sales of $6.9 billion. Excluding special items, earnings totaled $143 million, or $0.20 per diluted share, with adjusted EBITDA of $1 billion [3] - In the fourth quarter, GAAP earnings were $74 million, or $0.10 per diluted share, on net sales of $1.5 billion. Excluding special items, the company reported a loss of $67 million, or $0.09 per diluted share, with adjusted EBITDA of $140 million [3][4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Timberlands contributed $50 million to fourth quarter earnings, with adjusted EBITDA of $114 million, a $34 million decrease compared to the third quarter, primarily due to lower sales volumes and realizations in the West [7] - Real Estate and ENR contributed $84 million to earnings in the fourth quarter, with adjusted EBITDA of $95 million, slightly higher than the prior quarter, driven by strong demand and pricing for high-value development transactions [11][12] - Wood Products reported a $78 million loss in the fourth quarter, with adjusted EBITDA at a $20 million loss, reflecting challenging lumber and OSB markets [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Western domestic market, log demand and pricing softened in the fourth quarter due to ample supply and elevated log inventories [8] - The average sales realizations for export logs to Japan were moderately higher, driven by freight-related benefits, while demand for logs softened due to elevated finished goods inventories [9] - In the South, adjusted EBITDA for Southern Timberlands was $69 million, a $5 million decrease compared to the third quarter, with stable takeaway for logs despite muted sawlog markets [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company launched an ambitious growth strategy through 2030, optimizing its Timberlands portfolio and expanding climate solutions offerings [4][6] - A new target was set to grow the Climate Solutions business to $250 million of annual EBITDA by 2030, with significant progress made in 2025 [12][13] - The company aims to enhance its timberlands portfolio and evaluate capital-efficient opportunities to drive long-term shareholder value [6][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains constructive on long-term fundamentals supporting the business, despite challenging market conditions in 2025 [6] - The company anticipates stable domestic log pricing in the first quarter, with potential upside if lumber prices improve [8][23] - The outlook for housing activity remains cautious, with expectations of modest improvement in 2026 driven by federal housing policies and lower mortgage rates [34][35] Other Important Information - The company returned $766 million to shareholders in 2025, including a 5% increase in the base dividend and $160 million in share repurchases [4][19] - The company completed divestiture transactions covering non-core timberlands for total proceeds of $406 million and expects to close another transaction for $193 million [6] Q&A Session Summary Question: On the pricing front, do you think the improvement for both lumber and OSB is largely a reflection of curtailments, or is underlying demand actually picking up? - Management indicated that the improvement is primarily driven by curtailment activity, with some potential for demand pickup as the spring building season approaches [42] Question: Given the strong appetite for HBU properties, how is the company approaching A&D decisions into 2026? - Management noted a solid market for timber acquisitions and divestitures, expecting continued demand for HBU transactions [52] Question: What are the operating rates in lumber and OSB, and what steps have been taken to improve profitability? - Operating rates were in the mid-70% for lumber and mid-90% for OSB, with management focused on operational excellence to navigate challenging pricing environments [62]

FOURTH QUARTER 2025 EARNINGS RESULTS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS This presentation contains statements concerning the company's future results and performance that are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 including, but not limited to, with respect to: our first quarter 2026 outlook and expectations concerning earnings and Adjusted EBITDA for each of our businesses and expected key drivers; our full-year 2026 outlook for fee harvest volumes, St ...

Strategic Goals - Weyerhaeuser aims to add $1.5 billion of incremental Adjusted EBITDA by 2030, measured against a 2024 baseline[11, 14] - The company targets a cash return to shareholders of 75-80% of Adjusted Funds Available for Distribution (Adjusted FAD) annually[14, 96] - The company has recycled ~$850 million of non-core Timberlands from 2022-2025[54] - The company has completed More Than $1.2B of High-Quality Acquisitions from 2022-2025[54] Business Performance & Growth Initiatives - Timberlands & Strategic Land Solutions generated ~$850 million to $1.2 billion Annual Adjusted EBITDA range over the last 8 years[39] - Wood Products generated ~$1.5 billion Annual Adjusted EBITDA 8-Year Average[41] - The company has identified $1 billion of line-of-sight growth initiatives by 2030[68] - For every $100 per MBF change in lumber prices, the company generates $500 million in annual Adjusted EBITDA[76] - The company has increased annual Adjusted EBITDA to $100 million from Climate Solutions in 2025[54] Market & Operational Advantages - Weyerhaeuser holds 10.4 million acres of timberlands in the U S and licenses 13 million acres in Canada[18] - The company's distribution business covers 70% of the new residential construction market[174] - The company captured $175 million in OpX Improvements Across Our Businesses from 2022-2025E[54]

Core Viewpoint - Louisiana-Pacific reported mixed Q3 2025 results, with adjusted earnings missing estimates while net sales exceeded expectations, indicating challenges in the OSB segment [2][3]. Earnings and Revenue Overview - Adjusted EPS was 36 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 37 cents by 2.7% and down 70% year over year from $1.22 [3]. - Consolidated net sales reached $663 million, surpassing the consensus mark of $656 million by 1.1%, but down 8.2% from $722 million a year ago, primarily due to lower OSB prices [3]. Segment Performance - Siding segment sales grew 5% year over year to $443 million, with adjusted EBITDA slightly declining to $117 million and a margin of 26% [4]. - OSB segment sales fell 29% to $179 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA loss of $27 million compared to a $33 million profit last year [4]. - LP South America reported sales of $39 million, down 17% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA halving to $5 million [4]. Margins and Profitability Metrics - Gross profit decreased 33% year over year to $129 million, with gross margin contracting by 440 basis points to 19.4% [5]. - Adjusted EBITDA fell to $82 million, down 46% from $153 million last year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 12.4% compared to 21.2% a year ago [5]. - Adjusted operating profit sharply declined to $18 million, representing an adjusted operating margin of 2.7% versus 16.1% in the prior-year period [5]. Balance Sheet & Shareholder Returns - As of September 30, 2025, LP had cash and cash equivalents of $316 million and total liquidity of $1.1 billion, with long-term debt at $348 million [6]. - The company invested $84 million in capital expenditures and paid $19 million in dividends, with no share repurchases during the quarter [6]. Q4 & 2025 Outlook - For Q4 2025, LP anticipates Siding net sales of nearly $370 million (up 3%) and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $82 million (22% margin) [7]. - For the full year 2025, guidance includes Siding adjusted EBITDA of about $430 million (26% margin) and consolidated adjusted EBITDA of nearly $420 million [8]. Estimate Trends - Recent estimates have shown a downward trend, with the consensus estimate shifting down by 61.29% [9]. VGM Scores - Louisiana-Pacific has a Growth Score of B but lags in Momentum with a D and Value with a D, resulting in an aggregate VGM Score of C [10]. Industry Performance - Louisiana-Pacific is part of the Zacks Building Products - Wood industry, where Boise Cascade has gained 5% over the past month, despite reporting a year-over-year revenue decline of 2.7% [12].