Weyerhaeuser Company (NYSE:WY) Q4 2025 Earnings call January 30, 2026 10:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsAndy Taylor - VP of Investor RelationsDavid Wold - CFODevin Stockfish - CEOGeorge Staphos - Managing DirectorHamir Patel - Executive DirectorKetan Mamtora - DirectorMatthew McKellar - VPNico Piccini - Equity Research AssociateConference Call ParticipantsAnthony Pettinari - Research AnalystCharles Barone - AnalystHong Zhang - Equity Research AnalystKurt Yinger - SVP and Research AnalystMark Weintraub - Senio ...

FOURTH QUARTER 2025 EARNINGS RESULTS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS This presentation contains statements concerning the company's future results and performance that are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 including, but not limited to, with respect to: our first quarter 2026 outlook and expectations concerning earnings and Adjusted EBITDA for each of our businesses and expected key drivers; our full-year 2026 outlook for fee harvest volumes, St ...

Strategic Goals - Weyerhaeuser aims to add $1.5 billion of incremental Adjusted EBITDA by 2030, measured against a 2024 baseline[11, 14] - The company targets a cash return to shareholders of 75-80% of Adjusted Funds Available for Distribution (Adjusted FAD) annually[14, 96] - The company has recycled ~$850 million of non-core Timberlands from 2022-2025[54] - The company has completed More Than $1.2B of High-Quality Acquisitions from 2022-2025[54] Business Performance & Growth Initiatives - Timberlands & Strategic Land Solutions generated ~$850 million to $1.2 billion Annual Adjusted EBITDA range over the last 8 years[39] - Wood Products generated ~$1.5 billion Annual Adjusted EBITDA 8-Year Average[41] - The company has identified $1 billion of line-of-sight growth initiatives by 2030[68] - For every $100 per MBF change in lumber prices, the company generates $500 million in annual Adjusted EBITDA[76] - The company has increased annual Adjusted EBITDA to $100 million from Climate Solutions in 2025[54] Market & Operational Advantages - Weyerhaeuser holds 10.4 million acres of timberlands in the U S and licenses 13 million acres in Canada[18] - The company's distribution business covers 70% of the new residential construction market[174] - The company captured $175 million in OpX Improvements Across Our Businesses from 2022-2025E[54]

Core Viewpoint - Louisiana-Pacific reported mixed Q3 2025 results, with adjusted earnings missing estimates while net sales exceeded expectations, indicating challenges in the OSB segment [2][3]. Earnings and Revenue Overview - Adjusted EPS was 36 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 37 cents by 2.7% and down 70% year over year from $1.22 [3]. - Consolidated net sales reached $663 million, surpassing the consensus mark of $656 million by 1.1%, but down 8.2% from $722 million a year ago, primarily due to lower OSB prices [3]. Segment Performance - Siding segment sales grew 5% year over year to $443 million, with adjusted EBITDA slightly declining to $117 million and a margin of 26% [4]. - OSB segment sales fell 29% to $179 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA loss of $27 million compared to a $33 million profit last year [4]. - LP South America reported sales of $39 million, down 17% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA halving to $5 million [4]. Margins and Profitability Metrics - Gross profit decreased 33% year over year to $129 million, with gross margin contracting by 440 basis points to 19.4% [5]. - Adjusted EBITDA fell to $82 million, down 46% from $153 million last year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 12.4% compared to 21.2% a year ago [5]. - Adjusted operating profit sharply declined to $18 million, representing an adjusted operating margin of 2.7% versus 16.1% in the prior-year period [5]. Balance Sheet & Shareholder Returns - As of September 30, 2025, LP had cash and cash equivalents of $316 million and total liquidity of $1.1 billion, with long-term debt at $348 million [6]. - The company invested $84 million in capital expenditures and paid $19 million in dividends, with no share repurchases during the quarter [6]. Q4 & 2025 Outlook - For Q4 2025, LP anticipates Siding net sales of nearly $370 million (up 3%) and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $82 million (22% margin) [7]. - For the full year 2025, guidance includes Siding adjusted EBITDA of about $430 million (26% margin) and consolidated adjusted EBITDA of nearly $420 million [8]. Estimate Trends - Recent estimates have shown a downward trend, with the consensus estimate shifting down by 61.29% [9]. VGM Scores - Louisiana-Pacific has a Growth Score of B but lags in Momentum with a D and Value with a D, resulting in an aggregate VGM Score of C [10]. Industry Performance - Louisiana-Pacific is part of the Zacks Building Products - Wood industry, where Boise Cascade has gained 5% over the past month, despite reporting a year-over-year revenue decline of 2.7% [12].

Core Viewpoint - BMO Capital has lowered the price target for Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) to $98 from $108 while maintaining a Market Perform rating, citing attractive valuation due to recent stock pullback and strong performance in Siding products, particularly the higher-priced ExpertFinish line [1]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Louisiana-Pacific reported revenue of $663 million, a decrease of over 8% compared to the same quarter last year [2]. - Siding revenue increased by $22 million, or 5%, primarily driven by a 5% rise in selling prices [2]. - Within the Siding segment, ExpertFinish net sales grew by 31% for the quarter and 24% for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, compared to the prior-year periods [2]. Strategic Focus - Louisiana-Pacific is focused on expanding its value-added product lines, especially in Siding, with long-term growth reliant on product innovation, operational efficiency, and market demand adaptation [3]. - The company emphasizes overall equipment effectiveness (OEE) and is targeting international expansion, particularly in South America [3]. Product Offerings - Louisiana-Pacific manufactures engineered wood products for residential, commercial, and industrial construction, with main offerings including Siding and OSB, serving both new home construction and remodeling markets [4].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total sales in the quarter were down 8% compared to the prior year, with EBITDA of $82 million also down significantly, primarily due to the extended trough in OSB prices [5][6] - The company achieved $89 million of operating cash flow after $82 million of EBITDA, with $316 million in cash and over a billion dollars of liquidity [14][16] - Full-year total company EBITDA guidance has risen by $20 million from $405 million to $425 million [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Siding volume in the third quarter was flat, but Siding sales revenue grew by 5%, driven primarily by price and a strong mix [4][10] - ExpertFinish pre-finished Siding product saw sales volumes increase by 17% year over year, accounting for 10% of overall Siding volume and 17% of overall Siding revenue [5][10] - OSB business achieved 80% overall equipment effectiveness (OEE), up two points from last year, despite challenging market conditions [6][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - OSB prices remained low, barely above variable costs, driven by sluggish demand, particularly in the Southeast [13][15] - The South American business is struggling with a sluggish economy, impacting overall corporate overhead [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is exploring the conversion of its OSB mill in Maniwaki, Quebec, to Siding production, which could provide additional capacity in advance of market demand [17] - The integration of OSB and Siding businesses aims to leverage resources and improve market positioning [43] - The company is focused on managing costs and optimizing its network relative to current demand [34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ongoing share gains despite a softening market, particularly in the Siding segment [4][10] - The outlook for OSB remains challenging, with expectations of a $45 million EBITDA loss in the fourth quarter [15] - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining a strong culture and effective operations in navigating market challenges [6][8] Other Important Information - The company was named one of the 50 best manufacturers in the U.S. and one of America's most admired workplaces [6][7] - The CEO announced plans to retire in February after over 25 years of service, with confidence in the incoming president's leadership [8][9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Details on the potential shift from Holton to Maniwaki - Management discussed the various options for mill conversion, emphasizing the scale and cost position of Maniwaki as a viable candidate [20][24] Question: Competitive dynamics in the Siding business - Management noted that they have not seen significant disruption in the channel and are focused on their strategy to gain market share [25] Question: Pricing environment for Siding in 2026 - A price increase was announced, targeting a net increase of 3%-4% in 2026, with a focus on managing order intake to minimize inventory build [31][32] Question: Balancing capacity in the OSB market - Management indicated that OSB demand has been soft, with a focus on matching capacity to demand and optimizing costs [34] Question: Volume growth by end market in Q3 - Shed volumes were up year-over-year, while new construction segments faced challenges, particularly in southern markets [40][100] Question: ExpertFinish margins and managed order file - Margins for ExpertFinish are improving, with expectations for continued growth as capacity increases [86][91] Question: Market share gains in ExpertFinish - Management expressed confidence in the sustainability of market share gains, focusing on securing shelf space and contractor relationships [92][93]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Weyerhaeuser reported third-quarter GAAP earnings of $80 million, or $0.11 per diluted share, on net sales of $1.7 billion, with adjusted EBITDA totaling $217 million for the quarter [3][4] - Excluding special items, earnings were $40 million, or $0.06 per diluted share, reflecting solid execution against a challenging market backdrop [3][4] - Cash generated from operations was $210 million, with total debt just under $5.5 billion and approximately $400 million in cash at quarter-end [18][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - **Timberlands**: Contributed $80 million to second-quarter earnings, with adjusted EBITDA of $148 million, a $4 million decrease from the second quarter [8] - **Real Estate, Energy, and Natural Resources (ENR)**: Contributed $69 million to third-quarter earnings and $91 million to adjusted EBITDA, with a $52 million decrease from the prior quarter [11][12] - **Wood Products**: Excluding special items, reported a $48 million loss in the third quarter, with adjusted EBITDA down $93 million compared to the second quarter [14][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Log pricing in the domestic market faced downward pressure due to ample supply and elevated log inventories, leading to decreased average domestic sales realizations [9][10] - The Japanese log market softened, resulting in increased finished goods inventories and decreased log prices, although sales volumes were moderately higher [9][10] - Southern saw log markets moderated slightly, while fiber markets remained stable, with a slight increase in fee harvest volumes [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on optimizing its Timberlands portfolio through strategic acquisitions and divestitures, completing two acquisitions totaling $459 million and advancing three divestiture packages expected to generate $410 million in cash proceeds [4][5][6] - Weyerhaeuser aims to enhance the return profile of its timberlands while balancing capital allocation to drive long-term shareholder value [6][19] - The company remains constructive on long-term demand fundamentals supporting growth in housing and climate solutions [4][32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenging market backdrop but expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate current conditions due to a strong balance sheet and operational excellence [3][4] - The outlook for the fourth quarter anticipates lower earnings and adjusted EBITDA in Timberlands, driven by lower sales volumes and realizations [21][24] - Management expects a gradual improvement in housing demand as macroeconomic conditions stabilize, with a favorable long-term outlook supported by demographic trends [30][31] Other Important Information - The company completed the sale of its Princeton Mill for $85 million, with expectations of receiving the remainder of the transaction proceeds in the coming months [6][7] - Weyerhaeuser's natural climate solutions business is on track to reach $100 million of adjusted EBITDA by year-end, with solid demand for carbon credits [13][24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on lumber and OSB capacity - Management acknowledged the challenging year for lumber and OSB, emphasizing the need for housing in the U.S. and the importance of balancing short-term and long-term strategies [35][36][38] Question: Timberlands portfolio positioning - Management expressed satisfaction with recent Timberlands transactions and reiterated a commitment to active portfolio management [39][40] Question: Cash generation from Timberlands transactions - Management highlighted a significant increase in annual EBITDA from past acquisitions and divestitures, emphasizing the value creation potential of their integrated portfolio [41][42] Question: Strategies to lower costs in wood products - Management noted ongoing efforts to focus on costs and operational excellence, with a roadmap for achieving a first quartile cost structure across mills [44][46] Question: Leverage and capital allocation priorities - Management reaffirmed a commitment to maintaining an investment-grade credit rating and highlighted the flexibility in capital allocation to navigate challenging markets [48][49] Question: Competitive dynamics in the timber space - Management acknowledged the benefits of scale and integration in the timber industry, emphasizing Weyerhaeuser's strong position with 10.4 million acres of land [51][52] Question: Rising prices in HBU properties - Management indicated that rising prices for HBU properties are due to a combination of mix and geography dynamics, with continued strong interest in Timberlands [56][57]

Financial Performance - The company's total Adjusted EBITDA decreased from $336 million in Q2 2025 to $217 million in Q3 2025, a decrease of $119 million[6] - Net sales decreased from $1,884 million in Q2 2025 to $1,717 million in Q3 2025[7] - Net contribution to earnings before special items decreased from $165 million in Q2 2025 to $55 million in Q3 2025, a decrease of $110 million[6, 7] - Diluted EPS before special items decreased from $012 in Q2 2025 to $006 in Q3 2025[7] Segment Performance - Timberlands Adjusted EBITDA decreased slightly from $152 million in Q2 2025 to $148 million in Q3 2025, a decrease of $4 million[6] - Real Estate, Energy & Natural Resources (ENR) Adjusted EBITDA decreased significantly from $143 million in Q2 2025 to $91 million in Q3 2025, a decrease of $52 million[6] - Wood Products Adjusted EBITDA decreased dramatically from $101 million in Q2 2025 to $8 million in Q3 2025, a decrease of $93 million[6] Timberlands - Timberlands' total sales increased from $529 million in Q2 2025 to $536 million in Q3 2025[18] - Adjusted EBITDA margin percentage for Timberlands decreased from 29% in Q2 2025 to 28% in Q3 2025[18] Real Estate, Energy & Natural Resources (ENR) - Real Estate Adjusted EBITDA decreased from $113 million in Q2 2025 to $56 million in Q3 2025[30] - Total sales for Real Estate & ENR decreased from $154 million in Q2 2025 to $103 million in Q3 2025[32] Wood Products - Wood Products Adjusted EBITDA decreased from $101 million in Q2 2025 to $8 million in Q3 2025[38] - Lumber sales realizations decreased 11% from Q2 2025 to Q3 2025[41]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. reported an adjusted EBITDA of negative $144 million for Q3 2025, indicating continued operation within an extended cycle trough [3] - The lumber segment's adjusted EBITDA was negative $123 million, a significant decline from $15 million in Q2 2025, primarily due to lower pricing and a $67 million out-of-period duty expense [7] - Cash flow from operations was $58 million, with a net cash balance of $212 million, down from $310 million in the prior quarter [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The North America EWP segment posted negative $15 million in adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025, down from $68 million in Q2, driven by lower OSB pricing [7] - The pulp and paper segment reported negative $6 million in adjusted EBITDA, compared to negative $1 million in the previous quarter, largely due to an annual maintenance shutdown [8] - The Europe business generated $1 million in adjusted EBITDA, similar to the $2 million reported in Q2 2025 [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. housing starts averaged 1.31 million units annually through August, reflecting stable but uninspiring levels of new home construction [4] - The company noted subdued demand in repair and remodeling, continuing a trend observed in previous quarters [4] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet and liquidity profile, allowing for countercyclical investments and opportunistic growth [5][11] - Actions taken include the permanent removal of 820 million board feet of capacity, representing approximately 12% of the company's lumber capacity, to create a more resilient business [11][12] - The company plans to continue managing its asset portfolio prudently while remaining flexible in its operating strategy to meet customer needs [12][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the company's ability to navigate the challenging business environment, supported by a strong financial position [11] - The company is monitoring macroeconomic conditions and trade policies closely, indicating readiness to respond to changes in the market [15] - Despite a challenging year-to-year outlook, management remains optimistic about the longer-term prospects for the industry [16] Other Important Information - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced final CVD and ADD rates for AR6 at a combined rate of 26.5%, with West Fraser having the lowest duty rate in the Canadian industry [10] - A proclamation imposing Section 232 tariffs of 10% on imported softwood timber and lumber into the U.S. took effect on October 14, 2025 [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Approach to managing production in lumber and North America OSB - Management highlighted actions taken early in the cycle, including mill closures and adjustments to shift configurations, to remain nimble in production management [18][19] Question: Implied Q4 operating rate for OSB - The implied operating rate for Q4 is expected to be around 80%, influenced by maintenance shutdowns during the weaker seasonal period [20][22] Question: M&A opportunities in the current down cycle - Management emphasized a quality-first approach to M&A, indicating that while there are opportunities, they remain selective and focused on enhancing the company's strength [23][24] Question: Federal support for the lumber industry - Management noted ongoing discussions with the government regarding support measures for the industry, although specific details were not provided [28][30] Question: Inventory levels in the U.S. channel - Management indicated that their inventory levels are intentionally lean, with customers purchasing as needed, but they do not have visibility into customer inventory levels [31][34] Question: Conditions in Canadian markets and competitor behavior - The Canadian market remains competitive, with no significant changes in demand or competitor behavior noted since the imposition of higher U.S. duties [46][47] Question: Capital expenditures outlook for 2026 - Management indicated that they will provide 2026 capital expenditure guidance in February, with a focus on operationalizing major projects completed in recent years [50] Question: State of the Caribou Pulp facility post-fire - The Caribou Pulp facility has been repaired and is back up and running, with positive signs of improvement in the European segment [51]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported siding revenue growth of 11% year-over-year, resulting in $755 million in sales and $142 million in EBITDA for the quarter [7][19] - Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter were $0.99, reflecting strong operational efficiency [7][19] - Operating cash flow was $162 million, supported by seasonal reductions in working capital [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Siding segment achieved record volume, revenue, and EBITDA despite a challenging market, with a 2% price increase and an 8% volume increase contributing to revenue growth [13][19] - The OSB segment faced significant challenges due to falling commodity prices, resulting in an EBITDA of $19 million, which was better than expected due to cost control measures [16][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Housing starts remain below long-term average demand levels, contributing to a cautious sentiment among contractors [6] - Current OSB prices are at multiyear lows, with adjusted prices being the lowest in at least twenty years when accounting for inflation [19][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining growth in the Siding segment through product innovation and market share gains, particularly with the SmartSide product line [9][19] - The company plans to invest in new siding press capacity and increased prefinishing capabilities to support growth [18] - Cost control measures are being emphasized in the OSB segment to navigate the current market challenges [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term growth potential of the Siding segment, despite current market challenges [9][19] - The outlook for the OSB segment remains cautious, with expectations of negative EBITDA in the upcoming quarters if current pricing trends continue [20] Other Important Information - The company was recognized for its safety culture, being named the safest company in 2024 by APA for the third consecutive year [10] - The company has $1.1 billion in liquidity, including $333 million in cash, positioning it well for future investments [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on Siding margin decrement in Q3 - Management acknowledged that Q3 might not reach the peak of Q2, but combined revenue growth for Q2 and Q3 is expected to be healthy at about 7% year-over-year [26] Question: Early trends in Q3 and CapEx implications - Management noted a slight weakening in the Q3 order file but maintained guidance for the quarter, with most CapEx reductions occurring in the OSB segment [30][29] Question: Cost control measures in OSB - Management highlighted outstanding operational efficiency and aggressive cost containment as key drivers for better-than-expected EBITDA in the OSB segment [38] Question: Impact of shrinking home sizes on siding - Management believes that despite shrinking home sizes, the low penetration rate of wood strand-based siding and potential for a residing cycle will offset any negative impacts [40] Question: Siding guidance for the back half of the year - Management indicated a seasonal pattern with expectations for healthy volume growth in Q4, despite a flat outlook for Q3 [44] Question: Operating rates in Q2 - Operating rates were in the mid-eighty percent range for OSB and slightly lower for Siding as new capacity ramps up [46] Question: Sell-through and channel inventories for Siding - Management reported good sell-through in Q2, with channel inventories positioned as expected, supporting confidence in growth for Q4 [52] Question: Mix impact on pricing - Management clarified that the pricing dynamics are more influenced by product mix rather than headwinds, with panels being lower-priced but high-margin products [70] Question: New residential market opportunities - Management sees opportunities for growth in the new residential market, particularly in converting from vinyl to engineered wood siding [85] Question: Manufactured housing and shed demand - Management noted that shed demand has returned to normal levels post-COVID, while manufactured housing presents a significant growth opportunity due to affordability challenges [94]