The Buy Thesis Gladstone Commercial (GOOD) is trading at a multiple that is far too low for its quality of earnings. Specifically, a 9X multiple implies low quality earnings or high risk while GOOD’s cashflows are quite durable. I believe the market is missing 2 key aspects of GOOD: Property quality (post transition) Tenant quality In this article we will exhaustively examine GOOD’s transition from a mostly office portfolio to 70% industrial. REIT transitions of this kind can have a wide range of outcomes ...

The Buy Thesis - Gladstone Commercial (GOOD) is undervalued at a 9X multiple, which suggests low-quality earnings or high risk, despite its durable cash flows [1] - The market is overlooking two key aspects of GOOD's performance, particularly its transition from a predominantly office portfolio to 70% industrial [1] Valuation - A fair value estimate for GOOD is $15.25 per share, representing a 14X multiple on forward AFFO, indicating significant upside potential [2][68] - GOOD's portfolio and balance sheet are in healthy condition, positioning the company for future AFFO/share growth [44] Portfolio Transition - GOOD has transitioned from 52% office assets in 2015 to only 28% office currently, focusing on industrial properties [18][55] - The transition strategy involved a gradual approach, allowing GOOD to maintain tenant relationships and minimize AFFO/share losses [25][26] Performance Comparison - GOOD lost only 9% of its AFFO/share from 2015 to 2026, compared to LXP's 20% and SLG's 56% losses, showcasing its relative fundamental outperformance [23][43] - The company managed to renew or extend leases on a significant portion of its office assets, reducing the need for large-scale asset sales [26] Tenant Quality and Leasing Costs - More than half of GOOD's tenants are investment-grade or equivalent, which is higher than most triple net REITs [38] - GOOD's leasing costs are favorable, with an expense ratio of 7.14% compared to typical office leasing costs of up to 20% [61] Market Sentiment - The market has been punishing GOOD for historical AFFO/share weakness due to the pandemic, despite its strong fundamentals and recovery potential [39][42] - The current trading behavior of REITs reflects a backward-looking judgment, which has led to GOOD being undervalued relative to its forward prospects [42] Debt and Interest Rate Environment - GOOD has modestly reduced its leverage and has a mix of property-level mortgage debt and company-level credit facilities [45][48] - The company is positioned to benefit from potential interest rate cuts in 2026, which could lower its cost of variable rate debt [50][54]

The Straits Times Index (SGX: ^STI) has had a remarkable run in 2025, rising by over 21% year-to-date (YTD) as of 15 December 2025. The same cannot be said about real estate investment trusts (REITs). Singapore’s blue-chip REITs have had a mixed 2025, navigating interest rate shifts, overseas headwinds, and changing consumer habits. That said, beneath the headlines, a trio of stalwarts did better than most. Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU): Total Returns 27.5% YTDMapletree Pan Asia Commercial ...

Core Viewpoint - Resolution Capital Ltd has significantly increased its investment in Vornado Realty Trust, acquiring over 4 million shares valued at approximately $168.53 million, indicating a strong belief in the company's potential despite recent underperformance [1][2][9]. Investment Activity - Resolution Capital purchased 4,084,815 shares of Vornado Realty Trust in Q3 2025, raising its total holdings to 5,380,978 shares, valued at $218.09 million as of September 30, 2025 [2]. - This acquisition represents 4.24% of Resolution Capital's $5.14 billion in reportable U.S. equity assets [2][3]. Company Performance - As of December 5, 2025, Vornado Realty Trust shares were priced at $34.82, reflecting a decline of 22.75% over the past year and underperforming the S&P 500 by 37.22 percentage points [3]. - The shares are currently 23.24% below their 52-week high [3]. Financial Metrics - Vornado Realty Trust reported a trailing twelve-month (TTM) revenue of $1.82 billion and a net income of $938.05 million [4]. - The company offers a dividend yield of 2.12% [4]. Company Overview - Vornado Realty Trust is a prominent office-focused REIT with a strong presence in New York City and other major U.S. cities, emphasizing sustainability and energy-efficient properties [5][8]. - The company manages a portfolio of over 23 million square feet of LEED-certified office buildings, leasing to a diverse mix of tenants in urban markets [8].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, the company reported flat revenues of $37.7 million compared to $37.6 million in the previous year, with a decrease in NOI from $21.8 million to $20.8 million and a decline in AFFO from $7.8 million to $5.6 million [10][11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Residential properties are performing well, with overall occupancy at 99% and new rental rates exceeding previous rents by over 14% [4][7] - The newly completed Prospect House is currently 60% leased with pre-market rents at $88 per sq ft [5][8] - The Clover House property achieved 100% occupancy with average rents at $88 per sq ft and new leases at $95 per sq ft [7][8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall collection rate for residential properties was approximately 95%, with Clover Gardens at 92% [9] - The demand for residential leasing is expected to remain strong due to constrained rental housing supply in New York City [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on optimizing capacity, pricing, and expenses to position itself for growth [9] - Future plans include full lease-up of Prospect House and finalizing negotiations for properties at 141 and 250 Livingston [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong performance of residential properties and anticipated continued high demand for rentals [4][7] - The company is actively working to bring office properties back to a cash flow position [5] Other Important Information - The company announced a dividend of $0.095 per share for Q3 2025, consistent with the previous quarter [14] - The balance sheet shows $26.1 million in unrestricted cash and $30.6 million in restricted cash, with 88% of operating debt fixed at an average rate of 3.87% [13] Q&A Session Summary - There were no questions from participants during the Q&A session [17]

Portfolio Overview - As of September 30, 2025, the company's portfolio comprised 86 properties, with 70 in the Industrial segment and 16 in the Office segment, which were classified as held for sale and reported within discontinued operations[9] - The Industrial segment's occupancy rate was 100.0% based on rentable square feet and 99.6% based on usable acres, with a weighted average lease term (WALT) of 4.7 years and annualized base rent (ABR) of $74.632 million, representing 50.9% of the total ABR[10] - The Office segment had an occupancy rate of 97.9%, a WALT of 4.6 years, and an ABR of $72.003 million, accounting for 49.1% of the total ABR[10] - In 2025, the company acquired industrial outdoor storage (IOS) assets totaling 38.7 usable acres for a contractual purchase price of $57.718 million[12] - Dispositions from continuing operations in the quarter ended September 30, 2025, included 3 industrial segment properties with 761,500 square feet, resulting in gross sales price of $71.584 million and a gain of $6.641 million[12] - Dispositions from discontinued operations in the quarter ended September 30, 2025, included 8 office segment properties with 1,224,800 square feet, resulting in gross sales price of $247.450 million and a gain of $24.767 million[13] Financial Performance - For the quarter ended September 30, 2025, the company reported a net loss attributable to common shareholders from continuing operations of $0.18 per share and net income attributable to common shareholders from discontinued operations of $0.27 per share[19] - FFO per share/unit was $0.46, Core FFO per share/unit was $0.48, and AFFO per share/unit was $0.47[19] - Adjusted EBITDAre for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, was $33.397 million[19] - Total Industrial segment revenue for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, was $25.800 million, with $11.484 million from IOS and $14.316 million from Traditional Industrial[22] - Total Industrial segment NOI for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, was $22.520 million, with $10.245 million from IOS and $12.275 million from Traditional Industrial[23]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenues for Q3 2025 were $186.6 million, down from $200.4 million in the prior year, primarily due to asset sales and lower occupancy [18] - General and administrative expenses improved to $13.7 million from $19.5 million, a 30% reduction reflecting organizational efficiency measures [18] - Funds from operations (FFO) excluding specified items increased by 17% year-over-year to $16.7 million, or $0.04 per diluted share, compared to $14.3 million, or $0.10 per diluted share in the prior year [18][19] - Same-store cash net operating income (NOI) was $89.3 million, down from $100 million in the prior year, mainly due to lower office occupancy [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The office portfolio ended Q3 2025 at 75.9% occupied, up 80 basis points sequentially, and 76.5% leased, up 30 basis points sequentially [11] - The studio operations saw a trailing 12-month occupancy of 65.8%, a sequential increase of 220 basis points, while Coyote stages were 48.3% leased, up 90 basis points [15] - 75 office leases were executed in Q3, totaling 515,000 sq ft, with 67% being new deals [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. venture capital investment in Q3 2025 was strong, tracking about 15% above full-year 2024 levels, with AI accounting for nearly two-thirds of the deal value [4][5] - In San Francisco and the Peninsula, leasing accelerated sharply, particularly from tech and AI tenants [5] - Seattle recorded its first decline in availability in nearly four years, driven by AI investments surpassing $1.5 billion [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leasing, with a strong emphasis on capturing growth opportunities in the AI and technology sectors [4][24] - The acquisition of a 45% interest in the Hill 7 office property in Seattle is aimed at unlocking value through restructuring and increasing occupancy [9] - The company is evaluating options for the redevelopment of its Washington office property into a mixed-use project, indicating a strategic shift towards residential development [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the recovery in the West Coast office market, particularly due to the expansion of AI companies [3][24] - The company anticipates FFO for Q4 2025 to be between $0.01 and $0.05 per diluted share, reflecting expected lower studio NOI due to seasonality [21][22] - Management noted that the current funding environment is one of the strongest since the 2021 peak, which is expected to support future growth [5] Other Important Information - The company has $1 billion in liquidity, with 100% of its debt fixed or capped, providing financial flexibility [20] - The studio business is expected to benefit from California's expanded film and television tax credit, which has already allocated funds to 74 new productions since July [7][8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on occupancy trends over the next 12-36 months - Management indicated that they expect to see positive net absorption and improved occupancy trends, with 50% coverage on next year's expirations already in place [29][31] Question: Key milestones for studio recovery - Management highlighted that content spending is increasing, and the new tax credits are expected to drive production growth, particularly in California [34][36] Question: Rents trends across the portfolio - Rents are stabilizing across the portfolio, with improvements noted in San Francisco and Seattle, driven by strong AI demand [40][41] Question: Plans for non-core asset sales - Management confirmed that while there is no immediate pressure to sell, they are evaluating opportunities to dispose of non-core assets as market conditions improve [43][44] Question: Impact of AI on leasing strategies - AI tenants are focused on growth and are seeking high-quality, flexible spaces, which is influencing leasing strategies [59][62]

Financial Performance - Total revenue decreased to $186.6 million compared to $200.4 million primarily due to asset sales and lower office occupancy[14] - Net loss attributable to common stockholders was $136.5 million or $0.30 per diluted share compared to a net loss of $97.9 million or $0.69 per diluted share mostly attributable to a loss on the deconsolidation of Sunset Glenoaks[14] - Same-store cash NOI decreased by 10.7% to $89.3 million compared to $100.0 million primarily due to lower office occupancy[7] - FFO excluding specified items was $16.7 million or $0.04 per diluted share compared to $14.3 million or $0.10 per diluted share mostly due to general and administrative and interest expense savings and higher studio NOI[14] - AFFO was $12.3 million or $0.03 per diluted share compared to $15.8 million or $0.11 per diluted share mostly due to lower GAAP non-cash revenue partially offset by the items affecting FFO as well as lower recurring capital expenditures[7] Portfolio & Leasing - In-service office portfolio ended the quarter at 75.9% occupied and 76.5% leased up sequentially from 75.1% occupied and 76.2% leased in the second quarter this year[14] - In-service studio portfolio and stages were 64.6% and 65.8% leased respectively over the trailing 12 months up sequentially from 63.0% and 63.6% for the same metrics in the second quarter this year[14] - Executed 75 new and renewal leases totaling 515450 square feet including a 106000-square-foot new lease with an AI company at Page Mill Center in Palo Alto[14] - GAAP and cash rents on new leases signed were 6.3% and 10.0% lower respectively compared to prior levels primarily attributable to several small leases signed in Palo Alto rolling from peak market rents to still healthy rents of approximately $80 per square foot NNN[14] Balance Sheet & Capital Structure - The company has $1 billion of total liquidity comprised of $190.4 million of unrestricted cash and cash equivalents and $795.3 million of undrawn capacity under the unsecured revolving credit facility[7] - HPP's share of net debt to HPP's share of undepreciated book value was 32.2% with 100.0% of debt fixed or capped with a weighted average interest rate of 5.0% and no debt maturities until third quarter 2026[7]

Core Insights - Douglas Emmett (DEI) reported revenue of $250.58 million for the quarter ended September 2025, reflecting a slight decline of 0.1% year-over-year, while EPS increased to $0.34 from $0.03 in the same quarter last year [1] - The revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $249.92 million by 0.27%, but the EPS met the consensus estimate without delivering a surprise [1] Revenue Breakdown - Total multifamily revenues were reported at $49.52 million, slightly below the two-analyst average estimate of $49.57 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 3% [4] - Total office revenues reached $201.06 million, surpassing the two-analyst average estimate of $200.32 million, but reflecting a year-over-year decline of 0.8% [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Douglas Emmett have decreased by 15.1%, contrasting with a 2.1% increase in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Insights - The office real estate investment trusts (REITs) sector has faced challenges due to rising interest rates, reduced leasing demand, and the shift to remote work, leading to investor hesitance [1] - With interest rates easing and macroeconomic conditions stabilizing, there is potential for a recovery in office REITs, although some may still be value traps [1] State of the Office REIT Sector - Singapore office REITs, including CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, Keppel REIT, Suntec REIT, OUE REIT, and Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust, have shown occupancy rates between 94.5% and 99.0% [2] - Positive rental reversions for 1H2025 range from 4.8% to over 10%, with prime CBD locations experiencing steady growth, while secondary locations face challenges [2] Performance Disparities - Mapletree Business Centre, a non-CBD property, reported a negative rental reversion of 2.7% and an occupancy rate of 92.8% [3] - Overseas-focused REITs like Manulife US REIT, Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT, and Prime US REIT reported lower occupancy rates of 68.4%, 88.2%, and 80.2% respectively [3] Future Opportunities - The rate-easing cycle may allow REITs to refinance debts at lower rates, improving distributable incomes and property valuations [5] - Demand for premium, green-certified offices in the Asia-Pacific is expected to continue, with a strong occupancy rate of 94.8% for Grade A CBD buildings [6] Financial Health and Valuation - The average cost of debt for Singapore office REITs is manageable, ranging from 3% to 5.5%, with over 63% of borrowings fixed-rate [6] - Current price-to-book (P/B) ratios for office REITs are near historical averages of 0.8x to 0.9x, with some overseas-focused REITs trading at approximately 0.3 times [7] Risks and Challenges - Hybrid work arrangements may continue to reduce office space demand, leading to negative rental reversion and asset impairment [8] - Manulife US REIT reported a 10% decline in rental reversion for 1H2025, with occupancy dropping from 78.4% to 68.4% [8] Investor Focus Areas - Investors should monitor the financial positions and cost of debt of office REITs, with gearing ratios remaining sustainable across major players [10] - The quality of office properties, including environmentally-friendly locations and diversified tenant mixes, is crucial for future performance [11] Market Outlook - 2025 may present a turning point for office REITs, with modern, high-occupancy assets likely to outperform [13] - Strong fundamentals are essential when selecting office REITs for investment [13] Strategic Considerations - Location, balance sheet strength, and tenant diversification are critical factors for REIT success in varying market conditions [14]