Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, LyondellBasell generated $2.3 billion of cash from operations, reflecting strong working capital discipline and focused cost management [14][19] - Full-year earnings were $1.70 per diluted share, and EBITDA totaled $2.5 billion [14] - The company achieved a cash conversion ratio of 95%, well above the long-term target of 80% [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Olefins and Polyolefins Americas segment reported fourth quarter EBITDA of $164 million, down from the prior quarter due to higher feedstock costs and lower polyethylene margins [24] - The Olefins and Polyolefins Europe, Asia, and International segment experienced a fourth quarter EBITDA loss of $61 million, impacted by lower demand and increased competition from low-cost imports [26] - The Intermediates and Derivatives segment achieved fourth quarter EBITDA of $205 million, supported by improved propylene glycol demand [29] - The Advanced Polymer Solutions segment delivered fourth quarter EBITDA of $38 million, reflecting a 55% year-over-year increase due to operational improvements [32] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Industry margins in 2025 were approximately 45% below historical averages, with North American polyolefins margins at their lowest levels in over a decade [12] - The company noted that global trade disruptions and low demand for durable goods were significant factors pressuring margins [12] - In Europe, polyolefin markets faced soft demand driven by increased competition and ongoing destocking [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - LyondellBasell is executing a three-pillar strategy focused on growing and upgrading the core, building a profitable circular and low-carbon solutions business, and stepping up performance and culture [9][10] - The company is advancing its portfolio transformation with the divestment of four European assets, expected to complete in Q2 2026 [9][28] - The Value Enhancement Program exceeded its original target, achieving $1.1 billion of recurring annual EBITDA in 2025, with a goal of $1.5 billion by 2028 [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenging market conditions in 2025 but expressed confidence in the company's ability to generate positive free cash flow and capture significant upside once margins normalize [12][13] - The company plans to maintain strong capital discipline and focus on safe and reliable operations while pursuing selective investments in high-value growth [15][19] - Management expects modest improvements in market conditions as they move through 2026, with a focus on execution and cost discipline [35][36] Other Important Information - The company reduced its global workforce by 7%, or approximately 1,350 employees, to the lowest levels since 2018 [16] - LyondellBasell ended 2025 with $3.4 billion of cash and short-term investments, and $8.1 billion of available liquidity [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding dividend strategy and growth investments - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet while balancing cash returns to shareholders and growth investments, with ongoing discussions on capital allocation strategy [39][43] Question: Clarification on CapEx guidance for 2026 - Management confirmed a CapEx guidance of approximately $1.2 billion for 2026, with $800 million allocated for maintenance and $400 million for growth projects, reflecting a light year in terms of turnarounds [46][49] Question: Outlook on the oxyfuels market for 2026 - Management expects the oxyfuels market to normalize following a volatile 2025, with typical seasonal improvements anticipated [62] Question: Assessment of the polypropylene market - Management indicated that polypropylene is currently weaker than polyethylene due to higher exposure to durable goods, with expectations for recovery dependent on consumer confidence [66][70] Question: Update on the US Gulf Coast polyethylene market - Management noted low industry inventories and anticipated price increases supported by robust demand, with expectations for improved integrated margins [78][80] Question: Insights on China's anti-involution policies - Management mentioned ongoing discussions regarding China's policies, with expectations for potential announcements in the near future [81]

Key Takeaways LyondellBasell will release Q4 2025 results before the opening bell on Jan. 30.Lower operating rates, idled units and seasonality are expected to weigh on volumes and margins.LYB faces headwinds from higher feedstock costs and weak demand in the fourth quarter.LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) is set to release fourth-quarter 2025 results before the opening bell on Jan. 30.LyondellBasell beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in one of the trailing four quarters, missed it twice and ...

Core Viewpoint - LyondellBasell (LYB) is expected to report a significant decline in quarterly earnings and revenues, with analysts revising their estimates downward, indicating a challenging financial environment for the company. Financial Performance - The anticipated quarterly earnings per share (EPS) for LyondellBasell is $0.87, reflecting a decline of 61.2% year-over-year [1] - Analysts forecast revenues of $7.41 billion, which represents a decline of 29.9% compared to the previous year [1] - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 3.3% lower over the last 30 days, indicating a reevaluation by analysts [1] Revenue Estimates by Segment - Revenues from Advanced Polymer Solutions are expected to be $926.05 million, down 2.3% from the year-ago quarter [4] - Revenues from Olefins and Polyolefins in the Americas are projected to reach $2.73 billion, indicating a year-over-year decline of 6.7% [4] - Revenues from Intermediates & Derivatives are estimated at $2.32 billion, reflecting a decrease of 16.9% from the previous year [4] - Revenues from Olefins and Polyolefins in Europe, Asia, and International are forecasted to be $2.60 billion, down 8.5% year-over-year [5] - Revenues from Technology are expected to be $145.00 million, indicating an 8.8% decline from the prior-year quarter [5] EBITDA Estimates - EBITDA for Olefins & Polyolefins in the Americas is projected at $323.25 million, down from $670.00 million in the same quarter last year [6] - EBITDA for Olefins & Polyolefins in Europe, Asia, and International is expected to be $45.75 million, compared to $70.00 million a year ago [6] - EBITDA for Advanced Polymer Solutions is estimated at $31.88 million, down from $40.00 million in the previous year [7] - EBITDA for Technology is projected to be $67.58 million, compared to $84.00 million last year [7] - EBITDA for Intermediates & Derivatives is expected to reach $253.36 million, down from $794.00 million in the same quarter last year [8] Stock Performance - LyondellBasell shares have increased by 2.1% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has risen by 3.4% [8] - The company holds a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell), indicating expectations of underperformance relative to the overall market in the near term [8]

Core Viewpoint - LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) is set to report its first-quarter 2025 earnings on April 25, with expectations of a significant revenue decline compared to the previous year [1][3]. Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LYB's first-quarter revenues is $7,593 million, reflecting a decline of approximately 23.5% year-over-year [3]. - Revenue estimates for specific segments include: - Olefins and Polyolefins – Americas: $2,737.8 million, a year-over-year decline of 4.6% [4]. - Olefins and Polyolefins – Europe, Asia & International: $2,550.7 million, indicating a 7.1% decrease from last year [4]. - Advanced Polymer Solutions: $948.4 million, suggesting a 1.7% decline year-over-year [4]. - Intermediaries and Derivatives: $2,472.9 million, a 4.4% decrease from the previous year [5]. - Technology segment: $175.4 million, reflecting an 8.6% fall from a year ago [5]. Factors Influencing Performance - The company is expected to face margin pressures due to increased ethane and natural gas prices, driven by higher winter energy demand [6]. - Operations at O&P-Americas facilities are projected to run at around 80% capacity due to scheduled maintenance and disruptions from Winter Storm Enzo [7][9]. - Despite challenges, LYB anticipates demand gains across most product categories as customers begin restocking after year-end inventory reductions [9]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for LYB, with an Earnings ESP of -11.7% and a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell) [10][11].