尽管基本面强劲，券商股H股在9月的表现未如理想，市场对2025年第四季至2026年上半年的增长以及 国家队减持的担忧影响了表现。目前估值为1倍远期市账率，平均股本回报率为9%，该行预计随着成交 量强劲增长和盈利超预期，估值仍有上行空间。中金、中信证券(06030)和广发证券(01776)是美银证券 首选股，预计2025至2026财年盈利增长强劲，股本回报率持续改善。 美银证券将中国券商股2025至2026年的盈利预测上调0%至13%，预计主要上市中国券商2025至2026年 平均盈利增长30%，中金公司表现料领先。美银证券对2025至2026年A股日均成交额预测上调14%至 18%，料为1.6万亿至1.7万亿元人民币。H股券商的目标价平均上调4%(详见另表)，以反映更高的盈利 预测。充裕的市场流动性继续支持市场上升，四中全会、"十五五"规划以及潜在的监管宽松政策将是值 得关注的关键催化剂。 美银证券发布研报称，预期中国券商2025年第三季平均净利润按季增长9%，同比增长21%，受强劲的 经纪业务费用增长支持，股票交易收入可能超出预期，推动整体表现。中金公司(03908)和中信建投证 券(06066)预计将领跑 ...

公司报告 | 半年报点评 五粮液（000858） 证券研究报告 Q2 收入端表现稳健，费投加大利润季度承压 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。 2025H1 公司营业收入/归母净利润分别为 527.71/194.92 亿元（同比 +4.19%/+2.28%）对应 2025Q2：2025Q2 公司营业收入/归母净利润分别为 158.31/46.32 亿元（同比+0.10%/-7.58%）。 渠道端：25H1 经销/直销 渠道收 入分别 279.25/211.95 亿元（同比 +1.20%/+8.60%），毛利率分别 78.70%/86.80%（同比-1.00/+0.13pct），其中 直销占比提升 1.72pct 至 43.15%。五粮液经销商数量 2510 家，同比减少 20 家，单商规模+5.41%；其他酒经销商数量 1077 家，同比增加 127 家， 单商规模-9.38%。25H1 公司前五大客户销售收入合计 300.61 亿元（同比 +180.58%），占销售收入总额的 56.96%（同比+35.84pcts）。 量增驱动酒类业务增长，吨价阶段承压。 费投加大利润短期承压，业绩蓄水池仍较充足。 ...

该行目标价为普通汽车产品组别及工商用产品组别市盈率11倍。以及两项新业务明年预测市盈率300 倍。该行认为德昌电机股价上行空间有限，公司发布的现财年中期业绩将显示温和的约10%盈利增长， 且很大程度受惠汇兑因素。投资评级由"买入"降至"中性"。 消息面上，花旗发布报告称，基于德昌电机开发液态冷却泵及人型机械人关节，上调对公司明年至2028 年盈利预测5%至16%，目标价由29港元上调至45港元，为明年预测市盈率19倍，较平均高2个标准差， 或2017年以来最高倍数。该行指，基于其两项新业务的价值重估，德昌电机股价今年累升2.8倍，本月 累升约55%。 德昌电机控股(00179)一度跌超6%，截至发稿，跌4.98%，报41.6港元，成交额1.93亿港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than the market" rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The U.S. stock market has shown signs of slowing capital inflow, with significant industry differentiation observed [1][4] - The S&P 500 index has experienced a slight decline of 0.3% this week, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.7% [3] - Energy, automotive, utilities, and technology hardware sectors have shown positive performance, while retail, media, and materials sectors have faced declines [3][4] Summary by Sections Price Trends - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.3%, and the Nasdaq dropped by 0.7% this week - The performance ranking of styles is as follows: Large-cap value (+0.1%) > Small-cap value (-0.1%) > Large-cap growth (-0.8%) > Small-cap growth (-1.0%) [3] Capital Flows - Estimated capital flow for S&P 500 components was +$12.5 billion this week, down from +$134.6 billion last week - 10 sectors saw capital inflows, while 14 experienced outflows - Notable inflows were seen in semiconductors (+$23.6 million), automotive (+$15.9 million), and technology hardware (+$9.5 million) [4] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for S&P 500 components was adjusted upward by 0.3% this week - 21 sectors saw an increase in earnings expectations, while materials and retail sectors experienced declines [5]

Core Viewpoint - Vail Resorts (MTN) is expected to report a quarterly loss of -$4.78 per share, a decline of 2.4% year over year, with revenues forecasted at $269.98 million, reflecting a 1.7% increase compared to the previous year [1] Financial Estimates - Analysts predict 'Net Revenue- Lodging net revenue' will reach $88.25 million, indicating a year-over-year change of -1.3% [4] - 'Net Revenue- Mountain net revenue' is expected to be $179.08 million, showing a change of +1.8% from the prior-year quarter [4] - The combined 'Net Revenue- Resort net revenue' is estimated at $267.74 million, suggesting a change of +0.9% year over year [4] Specific Revenue Components - 'Net Revenue- Mountain net revenue- Other' is projected at $71.77 million, reflecting a -5.4% change from the year-ago quarter [5] - 'Net Revenue- Lodging net revenue- Managed condominium rooms' is expected to be $10.46 million, indicating a -0.3% year-over-year change [5] - 'Net Revenue- Mountain net revenue- Retail/rental' is forecasted at $26.29 million, showing an increase of +8.2% from the prior-year quarter [6] - 'Net Revenue- Mountain net revenue- Dining' is estimated at $20.51 million, indicating a +14.2% change from the prior-year quarter [6] - 'Net Revenue- Mountain net revenue- Ski school' is projected at $10.27 million, reflecting an +8.2% year-over-year change [7] - 'Net Revenue- Mountain net revenue- Lift' is expected to be $44.64 million, indicating a -7.5% change from the prior-year quarter [7] Lodging and Mountain Metrics - 'Lodging - Managed condominium statistics - RevPAR' is expected to reach $46.15, slightly down from $46.30 year-ago value [8] - 'Lodging - Owned hotel statistics - RevPAR' is forecasted at $178.07, compared to $175.22 in the same quarter last year [8] - 'Mountain - ETP' is estimated at $59.70, down from $69.04 reported in the same quarter last year [8] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Vail Resorts have returned -8%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has increased by +3.1% [9] - Currently, MTN holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating potential underperformance relative to the overall market in the near future [9]

Core Insights - Analysts forecast Accenture (ACN) to report quarterly earnings of $2.98 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6.8% [1] - Expected revenues are projected to be $17.33 billion, indicating a 5.6% increase compared to the same quarter last year [1] - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, suggesting stability in analysts' assessments [1] Revenue Estimates - Consulting revenues are expected to reach $8.57 billion, a year-over-year increase of 3.8% [4] - Managed Services revenues are projected at $8.75 billion, reflecting a 7.5% year-over-year change [4] - Product revenues are anticipated to be $5.22 billion, indicating a 5.4% increase from the prior year [5] - Health & Public Service revenues are forecasted at $3.77 billion, showing a 4.2% year-over-year growth [5] - Financial Services revenues are expected to reach $3.06 billion, reflecting a 6.6% increase [6] - Communications, Media & Technology revenues are projected at $2.86 billion, indicating a 4.1% year-over-year change [6] - Geographic Revenue from the Americas is expected to be $8.72 billion, reflecting a 9.4% increase [6] - Asia Pacific revenues are projected at $2.43 billion, indicating a decline of 13.3% year-over-year [7] - EMEA revenues are expected to reach $6.11 billion, reflecting an 8.3% increase [7] New Bookings - Total New Bookings are projected to be $20.97 billion, up from $20.15 billion year-over-year [7] - Managed Services New Bookings are expected at $12.02 billion, compared to $11.55 billion in the same quarter last year [8] - Consulting New Bookings are forecasted at $8.95 billion, up from $8.59 billion in the same quarter last year [8] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Accenture shares have recorded a return of -7.5%, contrasting with the S&P 500 composite's +4% change [8]

Core Viewpoint - KB Home is expected to report a significant decline in quarterly earnings and revenues, indicating challenges in the current market environment [1][5]. Financial Performance Estimates - Analysts predict KB Home's quarterly earnings per share (EPS) to be $1.50, a decrease of 26.5% year-over-year [1]. - Revenue is forecasted at $1.6 billion, reflecting an 8.9% decline compared to the previous year [1]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 2.6% in the last 30 days [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Total Revenues from Homebuilding are expected to reach $1.60 billion, down 8.1% year-over-year [5]. - Financial services revenues are projected at $5.74 million, indicating a 13.4% decrease [5]. - Total Revenues from Homebuilding alone are estimated at $1.61 billion, also down 8.1% from the previous year [5]. Operational Metrics - Backlog Units are expected to be 4,411, down from 5,724 year-over-year [6]. - Unit deliveries for Total Homes are projected at 3,351, compared to 3,631 in the same quarter last year [6]. - Net orders for Units are estimated at 2,986, down from 3,085 year-over-year [6]. Pricing and Community Metrics - The Average Selling Price is forecasted to be $474.39 million, down from $480.90 million in the same quarter last year [7]. - Ending community count is estimated at 253, slightly down from 254 year-over-year [7]. - Backlog Value is expected to reach $2.23 billion, down from $2.92 billion year-over-year [8]. Income and Market Performance - Operating Income from Homebuilding is estimated at $124.81 million, down from $188.95 million in the same quarter last year [8]. - Financial services pretax income is projected at $9.58 million, down from $10.95 million year-over-year [9]. - KB Home shares have increased by 7.3% in the past month, outperforming the S&P 500 composite's 3% increase [9].

Core Viewpoint - Darden Restaurants (DRI) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.99 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 13.7%, with revenues projected at $3.04 billion, up 10.2% from the previous year [1] Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 0.3% in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [1][2] - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions and short-term stock price movements [2] Sales Estimates - Analysts estimate 'Sales- Olive Garden' to reach $1.31 billion, indicating a year-over-year change of +7.9% [3] - 'Sales- Other Business' is projected at $665.09 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +19.7% [4] - 'Sales- Fine Dining' is expected to be $290.21 million, showing a +4.1% change from the prior year [4] - 'Sales- LongHorn Steakhouse' is estimated at $783.54 million, indicating a +9.8% change from the previous year [4] Company-Owned Restaurants - Total company-owned restaurants are expected to reach 2,167, up from 2,040 a year ago [5] - Same-restaurant sales for LongHorn Steakhouse are projected to increase by 5.8%, compared to 3.7% in the previous year [5] - Company-owned restaurants for LongHorn Steakhouse are estimated at 594, up from 577 in the same quarter last year [5] - Olive Garden's company-owned restaurants are expected to be 936, compared to 923 a year ago [6] - Ruth's Chris Steak House is projected at 83, up from 82 last year [6] - Bahama Breeze is expected to have 28 company-owned restaurants, down from 44 in the previous year [6] - Seasons 52 is projected at 43, compared to 44 last year [7] - Eddie V's is expected to remain at 29, unchanged from the previous year [7] Stock Performance - Darden Restaurants shares have increased by +2.5% in the past month, slightly outperforming the +2.3% move of the Zacks S&P 500 composite [8] - The company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating it is expected to mirror overall market performance in the near future [8]

Core Viewpoint - Korn/Ferry (KFY) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.24 per share, reflecting a 5.1% increase year-over-year, with revenues projected at $685.13 million, a 1.5% increase compared to the previous year [1]. Group 1: Earnings and Revenue Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the past 30 days, indicating analysts' reassessment of their projections [1]. - Analysts predict 'Fee Revenue- Total Executive search' to be $217.22 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 4.1% [4]. - The average estimate for 'Fee Revenue' stands at $685.03 million, indicating a 1.5% increase from the prior-year quarter [4]. - 'Fee Revenue- Digital' is expected to reach $89.03 million, reflecting a 1% increase from the year-ago quarter [4]. - 'Fee Revenue- Consulting' is projected to be $162.60 million, indicating a decrease of 3.1% from the prior-year quarter [5]. Group 2: Market Performance - Over the past month, shares of Korn/Ferry have returned 4.4%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's 3.6% change [5]. - Korn/Ferry currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting its performance may align with the overall market in the near future [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrated robust operational capabilities with double-digit growth in revenue and performance despite intensified industry competition and diminishing effects of national subsidies [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 252.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 26.01 billion yuan, up 25.04% year-on-year [2]. - In Q2 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 123.90 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.99%, and a net profit of 13.59 billion yuan, which is a 15.14% increase year-on-year [2]. Business Segments - The C-end domestic sales share showed a strong recovery, with the smart home business growing by 13% year-on-year in H1 2025. The company’s brands gained market share in domestic air conditioning, refrigeration, and washing machine markets by 3.7, 1.7, and 2.8 percentage points respectively [2]. - The B-end business also continued to improve, with an overall year-on-year growth of 21% in H1 2025, particularly in industrial technology, building intelligence, and robotics sectors, which grew by 29%, 24%, and 8% respectively [2]. Profitability Metrics - In Q2 2025, the company's gross margin was 26.17%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 11.22%, an increase of 0.38 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company experienced a positive contribution from financial expenses, amounting to 3.15 billion yuan, which is an increase of 1.98 billion yuan year-on-year, benefiting from improved foreign exchange gains due to the appreciation of the euro against the yuan [3]. Investment Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, with expected EPS of 5.70, 6.30, and 6.82 yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 14%, 11%, and 8% [1]. - The target price is set at 87.15 yuan, corresponding to a 15X valuation for 2025, with a maintained "buy" rating [1].