V i e w p o i n t | 28 Aug 2025 11:14:59 ET │ 14 pages Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM.O) Resilient Revs with Better-than-Expected Margin Trajectory CITI'S TAKE TCOM's 2Q25 results were better-than-expected thanks to decent revs and solid earnings. Revs beat was likely due to continuous momentum on Trip.com and strong other revs growth driven by ads. Into 2H25E, we expect domestic revs growth likely to remain resilient with decent hotel room nights growth despite soft transportation ticketing, outbound could slow ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, Trip.com Group reported net revenue of RMB 13.8 billion, a 16% increase year over year and a 9% increase quarter over quarter, driven by strong travel consumption and resilient demand across segments [24][29] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 was RMB 4.2 billion, compared to RMB 4 billion in the same period last year and RMB 3 billion in the previous quarter, indicating continued operational efficiency improvement [27][29] - Diluted earnings per ordinary share were RMB 6.09 (US$0.84), while non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were RMB 5.90 (US$0.82) for Q1 2025 [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Accommodation reservation revenue for Q1 was RMB 5.5 billion, representing a 23% increase year over year and a 7% increase quarter over quarter [24] - Transportation ticketing revenue for Q1 was RMB 5.4 billion, reflecting an 8% increase year over year and a 13% increase quarter over quarter [25] - Packaged tour revenue for Q1 was RMB 947 million, a 7% increase year over year and a 9% increase quarter over quarter [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Inbound travel bookings surged by approximately 100% year over year, with hotel bookings from key visa-free countries in APAC increasing by over 240% [15][16] - Outbound hotel and air bookings returned to more than 120% of 2019 levels, outperforming the market by 30-40% [17] - Domestic hotel bookings continued to see double-digit growth year over year, indicating strong consumer appetite for local exploration [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing its AI capabilities to improve user experience and streamline the travel booking process, with AI tools like TripGenie seeing a 50% increase in average user session duration [9][11] - Trip.com aims to capture the growing inbound travel market by enriching its offerings and improving service capabilities, including multilingual support and personalized itineraries [8][15] - The company is committed to sustainable travel and rural revitalization, having built 34 country retreats to stimulate local economies [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of travel demand, supported by strong consumer confidence and favorable policies [29] - The company anticipates continued growth in both inbound and outbound travel, with a focus on capturing opportunities in emerging markets [7][24] - Management noted that leisure travel demand remains strong, with corporate users expecting their travel budgets to grow or remain unchanged by 2025 [50] Other Important Information - The company has repurchased approximately US$84 million of its shares, demonstrating a commitment to delivering value to shareholders [28][82] - The balance of cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2025, was RMB 92.9 billion (US$12.8 billion) [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on AI in the travel industry - Management discussed the strengths of vertical AI agents in providing real-time travel data and enhancing user experience, while general AI agents offer broader information [31][33] Question: Performance during Labor Day holiday - Domestic hotel bookings increased by over 20% year over year, with inbound bookings surging by approximately 150% [37] Question: Outbound travel trends and expectations - Outbound bookings have consistently outperformed the industry, with expectations for double-digit annual growth [40] Question: Hotel industry performance and pricing outlook - Hotel ADR decreased by high single digits in Q1, but prices stabilized moving into Q2, with expectations for stabilization due to increasing travel demand [44] Question: Consumer sentiment amid macro environments - Travel demand remains resilient, with leisure travel demand strong and business travel showing stable demand [50] Question: Domestic competitive landscape - Competition in the domestic market is rationalized, with a strong focus on loyalty programs and customer retention [54] Question: Insights into first quarter performance - Overall bookings increased by more than 60% year over year, with APAC as a top priority for growth [57] Question: International business marketing strategies - The company is intensifying marketing efforts in Asia, with a focus on direct app user acquisition proving most effective [61] Question: Inbound business developments - Inbound travel has seen strong momentum due to favorable policies, with significant growth in bookings [72] Question: Sales and marketing expenses outlook - Marketing expenses may fluctuate due to seasonality, but the company aims to improve efficiencies through increased direct mobile traffic [78] Question: Capital return program - The company plans to continue share buybacks and has already returned US$200 million in cash dividends to shareholders [82]