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Hershey vs. Mondelez: Which Stock Wins Chocolate Season?
MarketBeatยท 2025-09-25 20:02
Core Insights - The Hershey Company has outperformed Mondelez International nearly 2:1 in 2025, despite both companies facing challenges from rising cocoa prices [1][2] - The management of rising costs and the strength of non-chocolate portfolios will be crucial for both companies as peak candy demand approaches during Halloween and the holidays [2] Group 1: Hershey Company - Hershey's stock was one of the worst performers in 2024 due to higher commodity prices and a change in leadership, with Kirk Tanner replacing Michele Buck [4] - The company has successfully implemented a price increase of approximately 26% on popular products like Reese's and Kit-Kat, demonstrating its ability to pass costs to consumers [5] - Hershey has diversified its product offerings, launching new products like Shaq-A-Licious XL Gummies, which sold over 11 million units, and expanding its portfolio of salty snacks [6][7] Group 2: Mondelez International - Mondelez has also expanded its portfolio beyond chocolate but has not shown the same strong gains as Hershey, relying more on cost-cutting measures to preserve margins [8] - The company's earnings report indicated a 15% year-over-year drop in EPS, compared to Hershey's 3% decline, highlighting Hershey's better performance in passing price hikes to consumers [9] - Analysts suggest that while Mondelez stock may have more upside based on conventional metrics, it needs to prove its ability to pass on higher cocoa prices to consumers [10][11] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings - Recent upgrades for Hershey include a rating increase from Neutral to Outperform by BNP Paribas Exane and a significant upgrade from Goldman Sachs from Sell to Buy, raising its price target to $220 [12] - Analysts expect a 15% gain for Hershey, which is higher than the 13% growth anticipated for Mondelez stock, indicating a more favorable outlook for Hershey [12] - Mondelez currently holds a Moderate Buy rating among analysts, but it is not included in the list of top stocks recommended by leading analysts [13]