Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) has upgraded its credit risk evaluation by incorporating real-time financial signals into its underwriting process, enhancing the accuracy of credit assessments [1][9] - The new method is currently available for Affirm Card users and will soon be accessible to a broader audience who opt to link their banking data [2] - This approach allows Affirm to assess creditworthiness based on current financial health rather than outdated credit histories, potentially increasing consumer purchasing power [4] Group 1: Affirm's New Underwriting Process - Affirm's upgraded underwriting now includes real-time bank account balances and cash flow trends, moving away from static credit reports [1][9] - The new system aligns credit decisions with real-life financial situations, improving risk assessment and promoting responsible lending [3] - Early results indicate that this richer view of consumer finances can significantly enhance purchasing power [4] Group 2: Market Position and Performance - The upgrade is expected to improve Affirm's credit quality by reducing default risk and expanding its consumer base, leading to increased approvals and revenue growth [5] - Affirm's Gross Merchandise Value rose 42% year over year in Q1 of fiscal 2026, reaching $10.8 billion [5] - Affirm's shares have increased by 25.2% over the past year, outperforming the broader industry and the S&P 500 Index [7] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Competitors like PayPal and Block, Inc. are also expanding their BNPL services, with PayPal's total payment volume increasing by 8% to $458.1 billion and Block's BNPL gross merchandise volume climbing 17% to $9.7 billion [6] - The competition in the digital consumer lending space is intensifying, highlighting the need for innovative approaches like Affirm's [6] Group 4: Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Affirm's forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 55.42X, significantly higher than the industry average of 31.72X, indicating a premium valuation [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts a 560% surge in Affirm's fiscal 2026 earnings year over year, followed by a 56.8% increase in the subsequent year [11]

Core Insights - PayPal Holdings (PYPL) is launching a 5% cash back incentive for U.S. customers using its Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) service for online purchases from October 6, 2025, through the end of the year, aiming to enhance holiday spending and support merchant growth [1][9] - The company is also introducing a "Pay Monthly" option for in-store purchases, which will provide the same 5% cash back and flexibility at checkout, with a rollout planned over the coming weeks [2][9] - Over 80% of consumers who have used or considered BNPL are open to using it for holiday shopping this year, indicating a strong opportunity for merchants to increase sales and customer loyalty through flexible payment options [3] Company Performance - PayPal is a leading provider of BNPL services globally, with its BNPL solution available in major markets, allowing shoppers to split purchases into manageable payments while earning cash back [4] - In Q2 2025, BNPL volume for PayPal grew over 20% year over year, and monthly active accounts increased by 18%, demonstrating strong consumer engagement [5] - PayPal shares have declined 16.4% year to date, underperforming the broader industry and the S&P 500 Index [8] Valuation and Estimates - PayPal shares are currently trading at a discount, with a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 12.59X compared to the Zacks Financial Transaction Services industry's 20.21X [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for full-year 2025 EPS has been revised upward, suggesting a 12.5% growth year over year [13] - PayPal holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive outlook for the stock [17]