American Express (AXP) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on July 18. ...

1 Revenue Composition(1) Q2 FISCAL YEAR 2025 Supplemental Information | ($ in thousands) | | | | | | | | | | Quarter Ended | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | March 31, 2025 | | December 31, 2024 | | September 30, 2024 | | June 30, 2024 | | March 31, 2024 | | December 31, 2023 | | September 30, 2023 | | June 30, 2023 | | March 31, 2023 | | Software and related service revenue | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2024, adjusted net income reached BRL2.2 billion, exceeding guidance of BRL1.9 billion, despite macroeconomic headwinds and over BRL100 million in negative impacts from accounting changes [15][18] - Adjusted net margin was 18.4% in Q4 2024, up 1 percentage point year-over-year [18] - Total revenues for Q4 2024 increased by 11% year-over-year, driven by active client base growth and higher monetization [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - MSMB card TPV reached BRL403 billion in 2024, a 15% year-over-year growth, while total MSMB TPV reached BRL454 billion, a 22% increase [10] - The MSMB take rate was 2.55% in 2024, exceeding guidance of 2.49% [13] - The credit portfolio grew to BRL1.2 billion, significantly above the BRL800 million target, with non-performing loans over 90 days at a controlled 3.61% [13][34] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail deposits closed 2024 at BRL8.7 billion, surpassing guidance of BRL7 billion, reflecting strong performance in bundled payments and banking offerings [11] - The banking active client base increased by 46% year-over-year to 3.1 million clients [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to establish Stone accounts as the primary financial hub for clients, focusing on enhancing the value proposition with a comprehensive product ecosystem [11][12] - The strategy includes a shift towards using deposits to fund operations, which is expected to reduce funding costs and improve capital structure [30][31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in continuing to outpace market growth and expanding share in the MSMB payments market [10] - The company remains focused on delivering sustainable long-term value creation despite potential macroeconomic challenges [65] Other Important Information - The company introduced gross profit as a key performance measure, which reached BRL1.7 billion in Q4 2024, growing 13% year-over-year [21] - A goodwill impairment charge of BRL3.6 billion was recognized for the software cash-generating units, which is a non-cash accounting adjustment [42] Q&A Session Summary Question: Performance of banking solutions and room for improvement - Management highlighted that deposit growth is outpacing TPV due to successful bundling of payments and banking solutions, with ongoing development of new products [68][70] Question: View on dividends given excess capital - Management indicated that while they have returned over BRL2 billion in share buybacks, they are not committing to specific targets for capital allocation at this time [76][78] Question: Details on price increases and guidance on EPS - Management confirmed that a substantial repricing initiative was executed at the beginning of Q1 2025, with adjustments based on yield curve projections [89][92] - The decision to guide basic EPS instead of diluted EPS was made to avoid volatility and complexity in calculations [94][96] Question: Potential sale of the Software business - Management stated that no offers met their intrinsic value for the software assets, and they will focus on maximizing value through cross-selling financial services [112][114]