Market Overview - US stock futures showed a slight decline, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 down approximately 0.1% and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipping 0.2% as investors reacted to developments in the Iran war and awaited inflation reports [1][2] - Concerns regarding the Iran war have led to increased volatility in the oil market, impacting stock performance [2] Oil Market - Oil prices experienced fluctuations, with West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude both rising over 2%, trading above $85 and $90 respectively, following reports of a proposed record release of reserves by the IEA to alleviate supply issues [3] Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index report for February is set to be released, followed by the Personal Consumption Expenditures index on Friday, which are expected to provide insights into inflation trends and the overall health of the US economy [4] Company Earnings - Oracle reported strong Q3 earnings, exceeding expectations and raising its 2027 revenue guidance to $90 billion, resulting in a stock price increase of up to 10% in premarket trading [7] - Groupon's stock fell by 10% in premarket trading due to disappointing financial guidance, forecasting 2026 revenue between $513 million and $523 million, below analyst expectations [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari believes the central bank is nearing a neutral policy rate, indicating limited room for further rate cuts [1][2]. Monetary Policy Insights - Kashkari noted that interest rates have been significantly reduced in recent years, and the current monetary policy is close to neutral, contingent on inflation trends and unemployment rates [2][3]. - The yield on the 10-year government Treasury bond suggests that the neutral rate is likely higher than before, influenced by increased investment in data centers [2][3]. Job Market Analysis - The job market is described as "softer" compared to one or two years ago, yet it remains relatively strong across the country [3]. Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Fed officials exhibit a divided stance on interest rates, with some anticipating cuts if inflation decreases, while others prefer to maintain rates until inflation shows clear signs of stabilization [4]. - Fed Governor Michael Barr and Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee emphasize the need for evidence of declining goods prices and further progress towards the 2% inflation target before considering rate cuts [3][4]. Inflation Metrics - The Consumer Price Index for January indicated a 2.4% increase year-over-year, with core prices rising 2.5% [4]. - The upcoming release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures index is expected to show a 2.9% increase in December on a core basis, slightly up from 2.8% in November [5].