Summary of Global Oil Demand Forecast through 2040 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global oil industry, specifically forecasting oil demand growth through 2040, highlighting the impact of energy demand and low-carbon technology limitations [2][4][8]. Key Forecasts and Insights - **Oil Demand Growth**: Global oil demand is projected to increase from 103.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024 to 113.0 mb/d in 2040, with an annual average growth rate of 0.6 mb/d (0.5% CAGR) [2][8]. - **Road Transportation**: Oil demand for road transportation is expected to rise until 2030, driven by the growth in electric vehicle (EV) sales and LNG trucks in China. A peak is anticipated in 2030, followed by a gradual decline [2][18][20]. - **Air Transportation**: Air transportation oil demand is forecasted to grow at an annual average rate of 2.4% (0.2 mb/d) through 2040, primarily due to rising incomes in non-OECD countries [2][26]. - **Petrochemical Demand**: As road oil demand plateaus, petrochemical demand (naphtha, ethane, LPG) is expected to become the main driver of oil demand growth, with an average annual growth rate of 0.5 mb/d (2.1% CAGR) [2][32]. Supporting Arguments - **Drivers of Oil Demand**: - Limited alternatives for jet fuel and petrochemicals due to technological bottlenecks [2][12]. - Energy demand growth is expected to outpace oil displacement by low-carbon alternatives, leading to a long plateau in road oil demand post-2030 [2][57]. - An indirect boost to oil demand from AI is estimated at 3 mb/d by 2040, linked to higher global GDP [2][49]. Risks and Challenges - **Downside Risks**: Potential faster advancements in low-carbon technologies and the lingering effects of economic recessions pose risks to the long-term oil demand forecast [2][67]. - **Refining Margins**: High refined product margins are anticipated to persist, as uncertainty regarding long-term demand has led to reduced refining capital expenditures [2][67]. Additional Insights - **Regional Variations**: Non-OECD countries are expected to drive over 90% of petrochemical oil demand growth, particularly in China and the Middle East, while OECD consumption is declining due to rising costs and ESG concerns [2][37]. - **Power Generation**: Oil demand for power generation is projected to decline significantly, with an expected 80% drop by 2040, primarily due to a shift towards natural gas and renewable energy sources [2][43][45]. Conclusion - The report presents a solid outlook for global oil demand growth over the next decade, with significant contributions from petrochemicals and air transportation, while acknowledging the potential for downside risks from technological advancements and economic fluctuations [2][51].