Russia’s pipeline gas exports to Europe collapsed by 44% in 2025, falling to their lowest level since the mid-1970s, according to Reuters calculations. The drop marks the clearest statistical endpoint yet for what was once Moscow’s most lucrative and politically potent energy relationship. The decline was driven primarily by the closure of the Ukrainian transit route at the start of the year, leaving TurkStream as the only remaining pipeline corridor for Russian gas into Europe. Even that route now serve ...

This marks a remarkable turnaround from the situation in the early aftermath of Russia’s 24 February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. It was obvious to the U.S. and Great Britain that Moscow’s ability to fight the war over the long term would depend on its ability to finance it, and that a key source of this was revenue from Europe’s imports of gas and oil. Moreover, Washington and London believed that the E.U.’s unwillingness to impose meaningful sanctions on Russia when it invaded independent sovereign country G ...

Summary of J.P. Morgan's China Natural Gas 2035 Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on China's natural gas market, particularly the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector and its evolving dynamics through 2035 [1][2][7]. Key Projections and Changes - **LNG Demand Forecast**: Initially projected to reach 140 Bcm in 2030, the forecast has been revised to a peak of 120 Bcm in 2032, followed by a decline to 105 Bcm by 2035 [2][7][54]. - **Domestic Production Growth**: Domestic gas production is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10%, reaching 375 Bcm by 2035, maintaining a production-to-consumption ratio of around 60% [12][18]. - **Pipeline Imports**: Russian pipeline flows to China are anticipated to increase steadily, reaching 106 Bcm by 2035, significantly impacting China's LNG import profile [2][39][44]. Demand Drivers - **Industrial and Chemical Sectors**: Industrial natural gas demand is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.8% from 2024 to 2030, driven by lower natural gas prices and increased usage per unit of industrial output [20][25]. - **Power Generation**: Gas-for-power demand is expected to face pressure from the expansion of renewables, with a projected CAGR of 3.7% from 2024 to 2030 [26][33]. Strategic Developments - **Power of Siberia 2**: This new pipeline is expected to come online in 2031, ramping up to full capacity by 2035, which will deepen China's reliance on Russian gas supplies [38][41]. - **Regasification Capacity**: China is expanding its regasification capacity, which is projected to peak in 2032, providing flexibility to increase imports from alternative sources [50][57]. Policy and Infrastructure Support - **Government Support**: The Chinese government continues to extend subsidies for unconventional gas production, which is crucial for maintaining domestic production growth [19][12]. - **Storage Capacity Expansion**: The government aims to boost national gas storage capacity to 55-60 Bcm by 2025, with further expansions expected under the 15th Five-Year Plan [59][61]. Market Dynamics - **Transition to Trader**: China is evolving from a pure LNG importer to a strategic trader, leveraging its extensive regasification infrastructure and diverse LNG contract portfolio [54][58]. - **Cost Considerations**: Russian pipeline gas is expected to remain the lowest-cost imported option, influencing China's import strategy [47][48]. Conclusion - The outlook for China's natural gas market through 2035 indicates a significant shift in supply dynamics, driven by increased domestic production, strategic partnerships with Russia, and a growing emphasis on renewables. The evolving landscape presents both opportunities and challenges for investors and stakeholders in the energy sector [7][54][58].