Group 1: Mining Industry Overview - Mining stocks are typically cyclical and not usually associated with consistent growth, but the demand for metals, especially rare-earth metals, is increasing due to technological advancements [1][2] - The U.S. is focusing on building a domestic rare earth supply chain, which has been largely dominated by Chinese companies [4][5] Group 2: MP Materials - MP Materials operates the only active rare-earth metal mining and processing facility in the U.S. at the Mountain Pass site in California, which is crucial for the domestic supply chain [4][6] - The company specializes in neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr), essential for EV motors, wind turbines, electronics, and defense systems [5] - MP is scaling up its processing capacity and aims to control the entire operational chain from mining to magnet production on U.S. soil [6] - Recent partnerships include a $500 million long-term supply agreement with Apple and a $400 million preferred stock deal with the U.S. Department of Defense, establishing a price floor for NdPr oxide [7] - The stock has seen significant growth, up over 340% year-to-date and about 460% year-over-year, although the company reported an adjusted EPS loss of $0.13 [8][9] Group 3: The Metals Company - The Metals Company is pursuing deep-sea mining of polymetallic nodules, which are rich in nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese [10][11] - The company is currently pre-revenue and faces regulatory challenges as the International Seabed Authority has not finalized rules for commercial deep-sea mining [12] - TMC has about $116 million in cash but is burning approximately $20 million quarterly, giving it a runway of five to six quarters before needing additional capital [13] - Despite a recent sell-off, TMC has a market cap of $2 billion, which could be justified if it successfully begins harvesting its mineral reserves [14]

Core Viewpoint - The Metals Company (TMC) is positioned as a potential leader in deep-sea mining, aiming to extract metal-rich nodules from the Pacific Ocean, which could significantly impact the supply chain for clean energy technologies and reduce reliance on Chinese rare-earth sources [3][6][14]. Industry Overview - Rare-earth metals are crucial for various technologies, including electric vehicle batteries and renewable energy systems, but their supply is heavily concentrated in a few countries, particularly China, which controls about 70% of global rare-earth mining and nearly 90% of processing [2][7]. - The U.S. imports approximately 80% of its rare earths, with over 75% sourced from China, highlighting the urgent need for alternative supply sources due to recent export restrictions from China [7]. Company Analysis - TMC plans to operate in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, which contains trillions of polymetallic nodules rich in nickel, manganese, copper, zinc, and cobalt, essential for various applications [6][10]. - The company has secured exploration rights and mapped potential mining sites but faces significant hurdles in obtaining mining permits from the International Seabed Authority (ISA), which is still finalizing its regulations [10][11]. - TMC is attempting to navigate regulatory challenges by applying for a mining permit under an older U.S. offshore minerals law, potentially allowing it to bypass some ISA requirements if national interests are involved [12]. Financial Considerations - TMC is currently pre-revenue, with a market capitalization of approximately $2.1 billion, and reported a net loss of $20.6 million in the first quarter of the year [14]. - The company has about $43.8 million in total liquidity, including $2.3 million in cash, which may diminish quickly without progress on securing mining permits [14]. - For an investor to see a significant return, such as growing a $5,320 investment to $1 million, TMC would need to achieve a 188-fold increase in share price, equating to a compound annual growth rate of 68.8% over ten years, which is highly uncommon in public markets [13].

Financial Performance & Projections - The Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) shows a Net Present Value (NPV) of $5.5 billion [9], while the Initial Assessment (IA) indicates an NPV of $18.1 billion [9] - The PFS estimates a 27% Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and the IA projects a 36% IRR [47, 63] - The PFS anticipates steady-state production of 11 million wet tonnes of nodules per annum from 2031 to 2043 [47] - The PFS projects an EBITDA margin of 43% during steady-state production years, translating to $254 per dry tonne of nodules [56] - The company estimates C1 cash costs of $1,065 per tonne of nickel, including byproduct credits, placing it in the 1st quartile of the nickel cost curve [54] Resource & Production - The PFS focuses on the NORI-D area, with probable reserves of 51 million tonnes [10] and a total resource of 352 million tonnes [47] - The IA covers the TOML and NORI areas (excluding NORI-D), estimating a resource of 1,276 million tonnes [63] - The company anticipates first production in Q4 2027 [15] - The combined PFS and IA cover an estimated resource of 1.6 billion tonnes of nodules [65] Strategic Investments & Partnerships - Korea Zinc made a strategic equity investment of $85.2 million in exchange for 19.6 million common shares at $4.34 per share [25] - The company has a pro forma cash balance of $120.7 million as of June 30, 2025, and total liquidity of $165 million including borrowing capacity [72]

Core Insights - TMC The Metals Company has seen a significant increase in stock value, rising 576% this year, indicating strong investor interest in the deep-sea minerals sector [1][10] - The company focuses on harvesting polymetallic nodules from the ocean floor, which are rich in critical metals such as nickel, cobalt, manganese, and copper, essential for various industries and a lower-carbon future [3][4] Company Overview - TMC is based in Vancouver and holds exploration rights in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, a mineral-rich area in the Pacific Ocean [7] - The company has not yet commenced mining operations, pending regulatory approval from the International Seabed Authority (ISA) [7][9] Industry Context - The U.S. relies heavily on foreign sources for critical minerals, with over 80% of its supply coming from abroad, raising national security and environmental concerns [4][5] - Deep-sea mining is presented as a less disruptive alternative to land-based mining, which threatens sensitive ecosystems [6] Financial Performance - TMC reported a net loss of $20.6 million in Q1 2025 and has invested over $500 million in developing deep-sea mining technology [11] - The company has $2.3 million in cash and $41.5 million in available credit, which is expected to sustain operations until at least May 2026 [11] Future Projections - TMC has ambitious projections for its NORI-D project, estimating nearly $2 billion in EBITDA by 2027 and annual revenue of $4.7 billion from 2030 to 2046, although these estimates are based on numerous assumptions [13]

Core Insights - TMC the metals company Inc. reported significant advancements in the deep-sea critical minerals industry, highlighted by the submission of the first-ever application for a commercial recovery permit under U.S. law, marking a pivotal moment for the company and the industry as a whole [4][9] - The company announced a strategic investment of $37 million through a registered direct offering, aimed at advancing its deep-sea mineral development initiatives [8] - TMC's financial results for Q1 2025 showed a net loss of $20.6 million, an improvement from the previous year's loss, alongside a decrease in exploration and evaluation expenses [16][17] Financial Highlights - Total liquidity as of March 31, 2025, was approximately $43.8 million, including cash of $2.3 million [7] - The company reported a net loss of $20.6 million for Q1 2025, compared to a net loss of $25.1 million for the same period in 2024 [16] - Exploration and evaluation expenses decreased to $9.5 million in Q1 2025 from $18.1 million in Q1 2024, attributed to reduced environmental study costs [16] Operational Highlights - TMC USA submitted applications for a commercial recovery permit and two exploration licenses covering a total area of 25,160 square kilometers, with estimated resources of 1.635 billion wet tonnes of polymetallic nodules [9] - The company welcomed Rutger Bosland as Chief Innovation and Offshore Technology Officer to lead offshore innovation and scale technologies for commercial production [10] - A partnership with PAMCO achieved a processing milestone, successfully smelting 450 tonnes of calcine into critical alloy products [11] Industry Developments - The signing of an Executive Order by President Trump aimed at expediting the permitting process for seabed mining, which is expected to bolster domestic supply chains for critical minerals [12][13] - TMC CEO Gerard Barron testified before the U.S. House Natural Resources Subcommittee, emphasizing the importance of deep-sea minerals for U.S. industrial future and national security [14]

Core Viewpoint - The Metals Company (TMC) is advocating for the United States to reclaim its leadership in deep-sea mining to enhance energy and supply chain security, as well as national defense, by responsibly unlocking critical minerals from the deep seabed [2][3][4]. Group 1: Deep-Sea Mining Potential - TMC's CEO Gerard Barron testified that the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, located 2.5 miles deep in the ocean, contains polymetallic nodules rich in nickel, cobalt, manganese, and copper, which hold more minerals than all known land-based reserves combined [3][4]. - The company estimates that seabed mineral extraction could create over 100,000 American jobs and generate over $300 billion in GDP [3][4]. Group 2: Regulatory Framework - The U.S. has a long-established regulatory framework for deep-sea mining through the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act of 1980 (DSHMRA), which empowers NOAA to regulate exploration and commercial recovery [5]. - TMC USA has submitted the first-ever application for a commercial recovery permit under DSHMRA, marking a significant milestone in establishing a U.S.-regulated supply of critical seabed minerals [4][5]. Group 3: Environmental Considerations - Barron emphasized that real-world data dispels common environmental myths regarding deep-sea mining, asserting that the U.S. can develop these resources without sacrificing landscapes or communities [3][4]. - Dr. Thomas Peacock from MIT highlighted the need for decisions on deep-sea mining to be based on the latest scientific findings, countering misinformation about environmental impacts [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's executive order aims to enhance U.S. self-sufficiency in critical minerals by promoting deep-sea mining, which could benefit companies like The Metals Company [2][4][11] Group 1: Executive Order and Its Implications - The executive order directs the secretaries of Interior and Commerce to expedite U.S. efforts in exploring deep-sea mining for critical minerals [2] - The order aims to develop domestic capabilities for exploration, characterization, collection, and processing of critical deep seabed minerals [4] - It seeks to strengthen partnerships with allies and industry to counter China's influence in the seabed mineral resource space [4] Group 2: The Metals Company Overview - The Metals Company focuses on deep-sea mining and has developed a system to collect polymetallic nodules from the seabed [5] - The company completed a successful pilot test in 2022, collecting approximately 4,500 metric tons of nodules and achieving a sustained hourly production rate of 86.4 metric tons [6] - The Metals Company holds exclusive exploration rights in the Clarion Clipperton Zone, with resources estimated to meet the requirements for 280 million electric vehicles [7] Group 3: Market Context and Challenges - The U.S. is heavily reliant on imports for 12 of the 50 minerals deemed critical, with China being a leading producer of 29 of those minerals [3] - The international community has not yet endorsed deep-sea mining, and The Metals Company is awaiting approval from the International Seabed Authority (ISA) for seabed mining regulations [8] - Trump's push for deep-sea mining has faced opposition from China, which claims the proposal violates international law [9] Group 4: Investment Considerations - While the executive order is seen as a positive for The Metals Company, uncertainties remain regarding the company's ability to commence commercial operations and achieve profitability [11][10] - Investors are advised to consider the high-risk nature of investing in The Metals Company at this time [12]

Core Viewpoint - TMC the metals company Inc. has submitted applications for a commercial recovery permit and two exploration licenses, marking a significant step towards the U.S. leadership in deep-sea mining and securing critical minerals for industrial use [1][2][12]. Group 1: Applications and Regulatory Framework - TMC USA has applied for a commercial recovery permit and two exploration licenses under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act (DSHMRA) and NOAA regulations, which are part of the U.S. seabed mining code [1][13]. - The commercial recovery permit application covers an area of 25,160 square kilometers known as TMC USA-A_2, which includes already indicated and measured resources in the Clarion Clipperton Zone (CCZ) [4][13]. - The applications are expected to be reviewed by NOAA, with an initial determination on compliance within 30 days and a full review including environmental evaluations thereafter [7]. Group 2: Resource Estimates - TMC USA believes the exploration areas TMC USA-A and USA-B contain SEC SK 1300-compliant resources of 1,635 million wet tonnes of polymetallic nodules, with an additional estimated 500 million tonnes of potential exploration upside [5][13]. - The estimated resources include approximately 15.5 million tonnes of nickel, 12.8 million tonnes of copper, 2.0 million tonnes of cobalt, and 345 million tonnes of manganese [5][13]. Group 3: Strategic Importance and Investment Potential - The strategic move under DSHMRA is expected to mobilize tens of billions of dollars in private sector investment across various U.S. industries, including shipbuilding, port infrastructure, and minerals processing [6]. - TMC has invested over half a billion dollars in deep-sea science, engineering, and technology to prepare for this moment, aiming to deliver the world's first commercial nodule project responsibly and transparently [4][6].

Group 1 - The Trump administration is drafting an executive order to allow the U.S. to stockpile metal resources from the Pacific seabed, aiming to counter China's dominance in battery metals and rare earth supply chains [1] - The news has positively impacted stock prices, with TMC the Metals rising over 20% and MP Materials increasing nearly 11% in pre-market trading [1] - The seabed contains polymetallic nodules rich in nickel, cobalt, copper, manganese, and trace rare earth minerals, which are essential for electric vehicle batteries and military equipment [1] Group 2 - The executive order would enable U.S. companies to bypass the International Seabed Authority (ISA) and obtain permits from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, avoiding controversies related to unregulated deep-sea mining [2] - Deep-sea mining has faced opposition due to high costs, lack of understanding of deep-sea ecosystems, and environmental concerns, leading to a lack of formal regulations from ISA [2] - The U.S. has not ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) but is still expected to adhere to its principles and obligations [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2024, the company reported a net loss of $16.1 million, or $0.05 per share, compared to a net loss of $33.5 million, or $0.11 per share for the same period in 2023, indicating a significant improvement in financial performance [66] - Exploration and evaluation expenses decreased to $8.3 million from $26.7 million in Q4 2023, primarily due to the completion of Campaign 8 and reduced costs in environmental studies [66][67] - General and administrative expenses increased to $8.1 million from $6.6 million in Q4 2023, mainly due to higher share-based compensation and consulting costs [67] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company successfully completed its first integrated collection system test since the 1970s, lifting over 3,000 tons of nodules to the surface, demonstrating advancements in operational capabilities [15] - The company has conducted 23 offshore research campaigns, significantly more than most contractors, showcasing its commitment to extensive research and development [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company highlighted the geopolitical significance of deep-sea mining, noting that China is actively pursuing deep-sea mining partnerships, which could impact market dynamics and competition [30][31] - Increased interest from major economies in deep-sea resources could positively affect the total addressable market for the company's services [31] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced a strategic shift to pursue commercial production through the U.S. regulatory framework, specifically the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act (DSHMRA), as a response to delays in the International Seabed Authority (ISA) mining code [19][20] - The company aims to leverage its extensive environmental data and research to support its applications under the DSHMRA, positioning itself as a leader in responsible deep-sea mining [18][59] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's readiness to begin production, citing a wealth of environmental impact data and a robust regulatory framework under DSHMRA [18][19] - The management acknowledged the challenges posed by the ISA's delays but emphasized the potential for the U.S. to regain leadership in the deep-sea mining industry [32][34] Other Important Information - The company has gathered nearly one petabyte of environmental data, which is expected to support its applications and enhance public trust in its operations [59] - The company entered into a registered direct offering, issuing 19.9 million common shares and 9.95 million Class B warrants, raising gross proceeds of $19.9 million [69] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on DSHMRA and License Areas - The company clarified that the DSHMRA allows access to high seas minerals, and while specific areas for application are still under discussion, they aim to utilize prior work done in the region [73][76][78] Question: Participation of Allseas in DSHMRA - Management confirmed that Allseas can legally participate as a partner, provided the production vessel is U.S. flagged [81] Question: NOAA Process vs. ISA Pathway - The company views the NOAA process as a new, advantageous path that complements the ISA process, leveraging existing environmental work [87][88] Question: Timeline for Economic Study - The economic study is expected to be completed in the first half of the year, ahead of the applications to the U.S. [96] Question: Environmental Impact Study Completion - The environmental impact study is progressing alongside the economic feasibility study, with data collection ongoing [100][102] Question: Termination of Contract with Third Sponsor State - The decision to terminate the contract was based on prioritizing resources towards more promising blocks, NORI and TAMO, which require focused investment [106][108] Question: Service Business Revenue Expectations - Management expressed optimism about the service business, anticipating revenue opportunities in the coming years due to the company's expertise and ongoing inquiries [110][112]