Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - TC Energy reported a 12% year-over-year increase in comparable EBITDA for Q2 2025, raising the 2025 comparable EBITDA outlook to between $10.8 billion and $11 billion, representing a 9% increase over 2024 [8][22] - The company achieved a 26% increase in pre-filed firm transportation rates on the Columbia Gas system due to a settlement with customers [9][32] - The average unlevered after-tax IRR for sanctioned projects increased to approximately 12% year-to-date, up from 8.5% a few years ago [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Canada Gas EBITDA increased due to contributions from Coastal GasLink and higher flow-through regulated costs [20] - The U.S. business saw EBITDA growth primarily from the Columbia Gas settlement and new customer contracts [20] - The Power and Energy Solutions business benefited from increased generation output and a higher average realized price of $110 per megawatt hour, up $8 from the previous year [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American natural gas demand is now forecasted to grow by 45 Bcf per day by 2035, up from a previous forecast of 40 Bcf per day, driven by LNG exports and industrial demand [10] - The company is engaged in commercial discussions with over 30 counterparties across the data center value chain, indicating strong customer demand for incremental service [11][56] Company Strategy and Development Direction - TC Energy aims to maximize asset value through safety and operational excellence, execute a high-quality capital-efficient growth portfolio, and maintain financial strength for long-term value creation [27] - The company is focused on brownfield expansions and corridor projects, with an average project size of around $450 million, which allows for better capital efficiency [60] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the execution plan for the remainder of the year, expecting to place approximately $8.5 billion of assets into service [22] - The company anticipates a continued upward trend in project returns and a robust pipeline of opportunities driven by increasing customer demand [14][11] Other Important Information - TC Energy's sustainability report highlighted a 12% reduction in absolute methane emissions over the last five years while increasing throughput by 15% [25][26] - The company has a target to reduce methane intensity by 40% to 55% by 2035, based on 2019 levels [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Details on Columbia Gas settlement rates - Management confirmed a 26% increase in pre-filed firm transportation rates and mentioned that further details on rate steps will be provided in final filings [30][32] Question: Capacity availability for Meta's data center in New Albany - Management indicated strong positioning to serve capacity needs in the New Albany area and ongoing optimization efforts [34][36] Question: 2027 EBITDA guidance considerations - Management expressed confidence in the 2027 EBITDA target range, emphasizing the importance of project execution and backlog management [40][42] Question: Concerns about Canadian pipeline assets and toll revisions - Management reassured that robust subscriptions for services and capacity expansions mitigate concerns about downward pressure on returns [43][46] Question: Project announcements in Pennsylvania - Management highlighted the potential for increased market share and project upsizing in response to growing demand in the region [53][55] Question: Utilization outlook for Northern Mexico assets - Management noted steady increases in utilization rates and the potential for modest capital-efficient expansions [68][70] Question: Canadian energy policy landscape and Bill C5 - Management viewed Bill C5 positively, anticipating benefits for capital deployment and LNG export potential [75][77] Question: Data center project sizes and pipeline consolidation - Management acknowledged trends toward larger projects but clarified that increased capacity does not necessarily imply higher capital costs [83][87] Question: Impacts of U.S. budget reconciliation on project pipeline - Management indicated minimal impact on project execution and cash taxes, emphasizing that growth plans are based on the current regulatory environment [108][110]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - TC Energy reported a 12% year-over-year increase in comparable EBITDA for Q2 2025, raising its 2025 comparable EBITDA outlook to between $10.8 billion and $11 billion, which represents a 9% increase over 2024 [7][20][22] - The company has completed or placed into service approximately $5.8 billion of capacity projects, including the Southeast Gateway and East Lateral Express projects [7][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Canada Gas EBITDA increased due to contributions from Coastal GasLink and higher flow-through regulated costs [18] - The U.S. business saw EBITDA growth primarily from the Columbia Gas settlement and new customer contracts [18] - The Mexico business experienced higher earnings from TGNH, driven by the Southeast Gateway pipeline completion, although offset by lower equity earnings from Sur de Tejas [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American natural gas demand is now forecasted to grow by 45 Bcf per day by 2035, up from a previous forecast of 40 Bcf per day, driven by LNG exports, power generation, and industrial demand [8][9] - The company is engaged in commercial discussions with over 30 counterparties across the data center value chain, indicating strong customer demand for incremental service [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maximize asset value through safety and operational excellence, execute a high-quality capital-efficient growth portfolio, and maintain financial strength for long-term value creation [24] - TC Energy is focusing on brownfield expansions and corridor projects, with an average project size of around $450 million, which allows for better capital efficiency [56][57] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the execution plan for the remainder of the year, expecting to place approximately $8.5 billion of assets into service, which is about 15% below budget [10][20] - The company anticipates further deleveraging to approximately 4.75 times by 2026, supported by cash flow from new projects [20][63] Other Important Information - The company released its 2025 sustainability report, highlighting a 12% reduction in absolute methane emissions over the last five years while increasing throughput by 15% [22][23] - The report also sets a new methane intensity reduction target of 40% to 55% by 2035, based on 2019 levels [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Details on Columbia Gas settlement rates - Management confirmed a 26% increase in pre-filed firm transportation rates due to the Columbia Gas settlement, with further details to be provided in final filings [27][29] Question: Capacity availability for Meta's data center in Ohio - Management indicated strong positioning to serve capacity needs in the New Albany area, with ongoing optimization efforts [31][32] Question: 2027 EBITDA guidance considerations - Management remains confident in the 2027 EBITDA guidance range of $11.7 billion to $11.9 billion, with ongoing rate cases and project execution being key factors [37][39] Question: Canadian pipeline assets and potential toll revisions - Management does not foresee downward pressure on returns for Canadian pipeline assets, emphasizing the need for capacity expansion to meet market demands [40][42] Question: Project announcements in Pennsylvania - Management highlighted the potential for increased market share in Pennsylvania due to rising demand and ongoing project discussions [49][51] Question: Future project partnerships - Management expressed openness to partnerships for future projects, focusing on capital efficiency and leveraging existing capabilities [110]

Core Insights - TC Energy Corporation (TRP) reported first-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 66 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 70 cents, and down from 92 cents in the same period last year [1] - The company's quarterly revenues were $2.5 billion, which also fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate by $18 million and decreased by 19.8% year over year [1] Financial Performance - Comparable EBITDA for the quarter was C$2.7 billion, up 1% from the previous year and exceeding model estimates by 2.4% [2] - The board declared a quarterly dividend of 85 Canadian cents per common share, payable on July 31, 2025 [2] Segment Performance - Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines reported a comparable EBITDA of C$890 million, a 5.2% increase year over year, driven by higher flow-through costs and contributions from Coastal GasLink [3] - U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines reported a comparable EBITDA of C$1.4 billion, indicating a 4.7% increase from the prior year [5] - Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines reported a comparable EBITDA of C$233 million, up 8.9% from the previous year but missing estimates [7] - Power and Energy Solutions saw a comparable EBITDA of C$224 million, down 30% from the previous year due to lower contributions from Bruce Power and lower realized power prices [8] Operational Metrics - Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines deliveries averaged 27.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), an 8% increase compared to the first quarter of 2024 [4] - U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines' daily average flows reached 31 Bcf/d, reflecting a 5% increase year over year [6] - Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines flows averaged 3.1 Bcf/d, up 6% from the first quarter of 2024 [7] Capital Expenditures and Financial Position - As of March 31, 2025, capital investments amounted to C$1.8 billion, with cash and cash equivalents of C$2 billion and long-term debt of C$45 billion, resulting in a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 61.1% [10][11] Future Guidance and Projects - TC Energy plans to bring approximately C$8.5 billion in projects online in 2025, including the Southeast Gateway pipeline project, while maintaining a focus on high-return projects [12][13] - The company expects comparable EBITDA for 2025 to be between C$10.7 billion and C$10.9 billion, with capital expenditures projected between C$6.1 billion and C$6.6 billion [14] Project Highlights - The Southeast Gateway pipeline is ready for service, with all contracted capacity secured and approval of regulated rates expected by the end of May [15][16] - The Northwoods project, an expansion of the ANR system, has been approved and is expected to provide 0.4 Bcf/d of capacity by late 2029 [17] - The Unit 5 Major Component Replacement project, valued at C$1.1 billion, is set to commence in Q4 2026 [18]