Learn more ↓https://t.co/nwRXjFdZa0Legal stuff:Coinbase Financial Markets is a registered futures commission merchant with the CFTC and is a member of the NFA. Not investment advice or recommendation to trade a particular contract or to employ a particular strategy. Prediction contracts are high-risk; you could lose your entire investment. Payouts depend on specific events. ...

Learn more ↓https://t.co/yjGPvlIXNgLegal stuff:Coinbase Financial Markets is a registered futures commission merchant with the CFTC and is a member of the NFA. Not investment advice or recommendation to trade a particular contract or to employ a particular strategy. Prediction contracts are high-risk; you could lose your entire investment. Payouts depend on specific events. ...

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 is expected to face a significant decline in 2026, with historical data suggesting a 50% chance of a bear market occurring this year [5][7]. Market Predictions - Kalshi prediction contracts indicate a 39% probability of the S&P 500 dropping 15% to 5,900 at some point in 2026, while the probability of a bear market (20% decline) is estimated to be below 39% [4]. - As of February 20, contracts predicting the S&P 500 will fall to 6,200 or below are priced at $0.58 for a "Yes" outcome, implying a 58% probability of this event [3]. Historical Context - Historically, the S&P 500 has experienced a median intra-year drawdown of 19% during midterm election years, with a more severe median drop of 21% when a new president is in office [6]. - The uncertainty surrounding midterm elections often leads to increased stock market volatility, as the president's party typically loses seats in Congress, affecting fiscal and regulatory policies [5].

Core Insights - The new exchange will enable Robinhood to provide additional prediction contracts related to sports, elections, and other future events [1] Company Summary - Robinhood is expanding its offerings by launching a new exchange focused on prediction contracts [1]