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Teladoc's Outlook Clouds As JPMorgan Points To Uncertainty In Behavioral Health, Margin Pressure
Benzingaยท 2025-05-16 17:00
Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan analyst Lisa C. Gill maintains a Neutral rating on Teladoc Health, Inc with a reduced price target of $9, down from $11 [1] Financial Performance - Teladoc reported first-quarter revenue of $629.4 million, a decrease of 3%, but exceeded the consensus estimate of $619.29 million [1] - The company incurred a first-quarter loss of 53 cents per share, which was worse than the analyst estimate of a loss of 34 cents per share [1] Future Revenue Guidance - For the second quarter, Teladoc expects revenue between $614 million and $633 million, and for the full year, revenue is projected to be between $2.47 billion and $2.58 billion [2] - Analysts are forecasting full-year revenue of $2.52 billion [2] Earnings Outlook - Teladoc has lowered its full-year earnings outlook, now anticipating a 2025 loss of $0.90 to $1.40 per share, down from a previous guidance of a loss of $0.50 to $1.10 per share [3] - Analysts forecast a loss of 93 cents per share for 2025 [3] Revenue and EBITDA Estimates - Following the first-quarter earnings, Gill adjusted her fiscal 2025 revenue estimate to $2.516 billion from $2.520 billion, and her adjusted EBITDA estimate to $282 million, down from $294 million [3] - For fiscal 2026, Gill lowered her revenue estimate to $2.547 billion from $2.560 billion and adjusted EBITDA estimate to $304 million from $314 million [4] Valuation and Market Position - Gill established a December 2025 price target of $9 based on an EV/adjusted EBITDA multiple of approximately 6.5 times her 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate, which is a significant discount to Teladoc's pre-pandemic historical average multiple [4] - The company faces challenges and uncertainties in the DTC behavioral health business and a volatile macroeconomic environment [5] Growth Potential - Despite current challenges, there is a sizable Total Addressable Market (TAM) with significant growth potential due to continued virtual care adoption, a leading competitive position, and expansion opportunities [6] - The company has an attractive margin profile and a strong balance sheet, being EBITDA and cash flow positive [6] Stock Performance - Teladoc shares were up 2.4% at $7.43 as of the last check on Friday [6]