Summary of Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co. Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co. Ltd - **Industry**: Industrial Equipment, specifically hydraulic components - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: Rmb105.00, representing a 12% upside from the current price of Rmb93.96 as of October 27, 2025 [6][8] Financial Performance - **3Q25 Results**: - Revenue increased by 25% YoY to Rmb2,749 million, slightly above Morgan Stanley's estimate of 20% but in line with consensus [8] - Gross Profit Margin (GPM) improved by 1 percentage point YoY to 42%, attributed to better economies of scale [8] - Net Profit (NP) rose by 31% YoY to Rmb813 million, exceeding Morgan Stanley's estimate of approximately 24% [8] - Non-GAAP NP increased by 13% YoY, driven by higher financial asset gains [8] - **Sales and Profit Growth Expectations**: - Management anticipates a sales growth of approximately 12% and net profit growth of around 16% YoY for fiscal year 2025, consistent with the growth observed in the first nine months of 2025 [2][8] Segment Performance - **Revenue Breakdown**: - Excavator cylinders: Rmb675 million in 3Q25, up 24% YoY - Non-excavator cylinders: Rmb629 million, up 22% YoY - Pumps and valves: Rmb1,100 million, up 21% YoY - Components and integrated systems: Rmb88 million, up 55% YoY - Accessories and castings: Rmb222 million, up 38% YoY [3] Market Dynamics - **Demand Recovery**: - Expected recovery in overseas demand for excavator cylinders in 4Q25, alongside continued domestic recovery in the upcycle [2] Valuation and Risks - **Valuation Methodology**: - Price target based on applying a 35x P/E ratio for core business and a 6x P/S ratio for humanoid robot parts revenue, projected at Rmb4 billion [9] - **Risks**: - Upside risks include stronger-than-expected demand for excavators and pumps & valves, and successful penetration into foreign brands' supply chains [11] - Downside risks involve a sharp decline in demand for excavators and pumps & valves in China, and failure to expand market share in non-excavator parts [11] Key Metrics - **Market Capitalization**: Rmb125,984 million - **Average Daily Trading Value**: Rmb874 million - **EPS Forecast**: Expected to grow from Rmb1.87 in 2024 to Rmb2.85 in 2027 [6] Conclusion Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co. Ltd. is positioned for continued growth in the hydraulic components market, supported by strong financial performance and recovery in demand. The company's strategic focus on expanding its product offerings and market share, particularly in the humanoid robotics sector, presents potential investment opportunities. However, investors should remain cautious of market volatility and demand fluctuations in the construction machinery sector.