January WTI crude oil (CLF26) on Thursday closed up +0.21 (+0.38%), and January RBOB gasoline (RBF26) closed up +0.0070 (+0.41%). Crude oil and gasoline prices settled higher on Thursday amid heightened geopolitical risks in Venezuela and Russia.  Also, Thursday's sharp rally in stocks boosted optimism about the economic outlook, which is supportive of energy demand.  Gains in crude were limited due to a stronger dollar and a bearish global supply outlook. More News from Barchart Escalation of global g ...

January WTI crude oil (CLF26) on Wednesday closed up +0.67 (+1.21%), and January RBOB gasoline (RBF26) closed up +0.0134 (+0.80%). Crude oil and gasoline prices rose on Wednesday amid heightened geopolitical risks in Venezuela and Russia.  President Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned tankers off Venezuela, and the US is preparing new sanctions on Russian energy exports if Russia rejects a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine.  Crude prices fell back from their best level on Wednesday after weekly EIA ...

January WTI crude oil (CLF26) today is down -0.84 (-1.46%), and January RBOB gasoline (RBF26) is down -0.0234 (-1.34%). Crude oil and gasoline prices are under pressure today, with crude oil falling to a 1.75-month low and gasoline posting a 4.75-year nearest-futures low.  Concerns about global energy demand are weighing on crude prices amid weaker-than-expected Chinese economic news.  Also, today's fall in the S&P 500 to a 2-week low dampens optimism in the economic outlook that is negative for energy de ...

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices are experiencing significant declines, with crude reaching a 7-week low and gasoline hitting a 4.75-year low due to concerns about a global oil glut and weakened economic outlook [1][3] Group 1: Price Movements - January WTI crude oil is down by $1.27 (-2.17%) and January RBOB gasoline is down by $0.0342 (-1.92%) [1] - The crude crack spread has fallen to a 2-month low, indicating reduced refiners' interest in purchasing crude oil for refining [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Trafigura has indicated that the global oil market may face a "super glut" next year due to new supplies outpacing sluggish energy demand [3] - Saudi Aramco has cut the price of its Arab Light crude oil for Asian customers by $0.30 per barrel for January delivery, marking the lowest price since January 2021, reflecting weaker energy demand [4] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical risks, particularly in Venezuela, are providing some support for crude prices, as U.S. forces have intercepted a sanctioned oil tanker, potentially complicating Venezuela's oil exports [2][5] - Russian President Putin has threatened to attack ships aiding Ukraine, which may escalate tensions and impact oil supply dynamics [5]

Group 1: Market Trends - Crude oil and gasoline prices continued to decline, with crude reaching a 1.5-week low and gasoline a 2-week low due to a stronger dollar and concerns over a global oil glut [2][3] - The crude crack spread fell to a 6-week low, discouraging refiners from purchasing crude oil for conversion into gasoline and distillates [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Trafigura indicated that the global oil market is heading towards a "super glut" next year due to new supply outpacing sluggish energy demand [3] - Saudi Aramco cut the price of its Arab Light crude oil for Asian customers by 30 cents per barrel for January delivery, marking the lowest price since January 2021, reflecting weakened energy demand [4] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical risks are providing some support to crude prices, with threats from Russian President Putin regarding attacks on ships aiding Ukraine and recent drone attacks on Russian tankers in the Black Sea [5] - Reduced crude exports from Russia are also supporting prices, with shipments falling to 1.7 million barrels per day in early November, the lowest in over three years, due to Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and new sanctions from the US and EU [6]

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices are experiencing declines, with crude reaching a 1.5-week low and gasoline a 2-week low, primarily due to a stronger dollar and concerns over a global oil glut [2][3] - Trafigura forecasts a "super glut" in the global oil market next year, driven by new supply outpacing sluggish demand, which is negatively impacting crude prices [3] - Saudi Aramco's recent price cut for Arab Light crude oil indicates weakened energy demand, marking the lowest price since January 2021 [4] Market Dynamics - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Russia and Ukraine, are providing some support to crude prices despite overall bearish trends [5] - Russian crude exports have significantly decreased, with shipments falling to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in early November, the lowest in over three years, due to ongoing conflicts and new sanctions [6] - The closure of key oil export routes, such as the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, further constrains Russian oil exports, impacting global supply dynamics [6]

January WTI crude oil (CLF26) today is up +0.61 (+1.03%), and January RBOB gasoline (RBF26) is up +0.0017 (+0.09%). Crude oil and gasoline prices are moving higher today on dollar weakness as the dollar index (DXY00) dropped to a 5-week low.  Also, the war in Ukraine looks set to drag on, which will keep sanctions on Russian energy exports in place, after US-Russian talks failed to reach a breakthrough in ending the war in Ukraine.  Gains in crude are limited after Saudi Arabia cut the price of its main c ...

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices have decreased due to hopes for a resolution to the Russian-Ukrainian war, which could lead to increased global oil supplies as restrictions on Russian energy exports may be lifted [1] - Russian geopolitical tensions and military threats are providing support for crude oil prices, despite the overall downward trend [2][5] - Recent data indicates a significant rise in crude oil stored on stationary tankers, reaching the highest level in nearly 2.5 years [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC has revised its Q3 global oil market estimates from a deficit to a surplus, now projecting a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) due to higher-than-expected US production and increased OPEC output [4] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its 2025 US crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd, up from 13.53 million bpd [4] Geopolitical Factors - Venezuelan geopolitical risks are contributing to the support of crude prices, following statements from President Trump regarding the airspace over Venezuela [5] - Reduced crude exports from Russia are also underpinning crude prices, with shipments falling to 1.7 million bpd in early November, the lowest in over three years [6] - Ukraine's military actions have targeted Russian refineries, knocking out 13% to 20% of Russia's refining capacity and limiting crude export capabilities [6]

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices increased, with crude reaching a one-week high, influenced by a decline in the dollar index and reduced Russian crude exports [2][3] Group 1: Price Movements - January WTI crude oil closed up by $0.77 (+1.32%), while January RBOB gasoline rose by $0.00474 (+2.60%) [1] - Crude oil prices were supported by geopolitical tensions, particularly in Venezuela, and operational disruptions in Russian oil exports due to Ukrainian attacks [2][3] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Russian crude oil exports fell to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of November, marking the lowest level in over three years [4] - Ukrainian attacks have targeted Russian refineries, reducing Russia's refining capacity by 13% to 20% and limiting crude export capabilities by up to 1.1 million bpd [4] - The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which exports 1.6 million bpd of Kazakhstan's crude, also faced disruptions due to pipeline damage [3] Group 3: OPEC and Market Estimates - OPEC+ announced plans to maintain production levels during Q1 of 2026, which supports current price levels [3] - OPEC revised its Q3 global oil market outlook from a deficit to a surplus of 500,000 bpd, driven by higher-than-expected US production and increased OPEC output [6] - The EIA adjusted its 2025 US crude production forecast to 13.59 million bpd, up from 13.53 million bpd [6] Group 4: Storage and Inventory - Crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days increased by 12% week-over-week to 124.64 million barrels, the highest level in nearly 2.5 years [5]

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices are experiencing slight increases, driven by dollar weakness and geopolitical tensions related to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict [2][3] - OPEC has revised its Q3 global oil market estimates from a deficit to a surplus, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5][6] Price Movements - January WTI crude oil is up by +0.08 (+0.14%) and January RBOB gasoline is up by +0.0110 (+0.61%) [1] - Crude oil prices are supported by reduced exports from Russia, with shipments falling to 1.7 million bpd, the lowest in over three years [3] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical risks, including a potential US military buildup against Venezuela, are providing underlying support for oil prices [4] - Ukraine's targeting of Russian refineries has significantly impacted Russia's refining capacity, reducing it by 13% to 20% and curbing production by up to 1.1 million bpd [3] Supply and Production Dynamics - OPEC has announced a production increase of +137,000 bpd for December but plans to pause further hikes in Q1-2026 due to an emerging global oil surplus [6] - The EIA has raised its 2025 US crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd, reflecting stronger-than-expected US production [5] Market Adjustments - The EIA reported larger-than-expected increases in crude oil and products, which has limited gains in crude prices [2] - OPEC's October crude production rose by +50,000 bpd to 29.07 million bpd, marking the highest level in 2.5 years [6]