March WTI crude oil (CLH26) on Thursday closed up +1.24 (+1.90%), and March RBOB gasoline (RBH26) closed up +0.0386 (+1.96%). Crude oil and gasoline prices added to Wednesday’s sharp rally on Thursday, with crude climbing to a 6.5-month high and gasoline posting a 1-week high. More News from Barchart Mounting geopolitical risks in the Middle East are pushing crude prices sharply higher.   On Thursday, the United Nations nuclear watchdog said that the US military buildup in the Middle East means Iran’s w ...

March WTI crude oil (CLH26) today is up +1.58 (+2.42%), and March RBOB gasoline (RBH26) is up +0.0311 (+1.58%). Crude oil and gasoline prices added to Wednesday’s sharp rally today, with crude climbing to a 6.5-month high and gasoline posting a 1-week high. More News from Barchart Mounting geopolitical risks in the Middle East are pushing crude prices sharply higher.   The United Nations nuclear watchdog said today that the US military buildup in the Middle East means Iran’s window to reach a diplomatic ...

March WTI crude oil (CLH26) today is down -0.62 (-0.99%), and March RBOB gasoline (RBH26) is down -0.0027 (-0.14%). Crude oil and gasoline prices gave up an early advance today and turned lower, with crude falling to a 2-week low.  Today's rally in the dollar index ($DXY) to a 1-week high is bearish for energy prices.  Losses in crude accelerated today after Iran said it has reached a "general agreement" with the US on a nuclear deal. More News from Barchart Geopolitical risks between the US and Iran e ...

Core Viewpoint - Crude oil and gasoline prices are experiencing downward pressure, reaching 1.5-week lows due to easing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, as well as speculation regarding potential increases in OPEC+ production levels [1][2][3]. Geopolitical Factors - The de-escalation of US-Iran tensions has reduced the likelihood of military actions that could disrupt oil supplies, as President Trump indicated that negotiations over a nuclear deal could last for an extended period [2]. - The US has discussed the possibility of seizing tankers carrying Iranian oil, and there are considerations to send additional military resources to the Middle East in case nuclear talks fail, which could impact Iran's crude production of 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) [5]. OPEC+ Production Outlook - Some OPEC+ members believe there is room to increase oil production in April, as concerns about a global supply glut are perceived to be exaggerated. An online meeting is scheduled for March 1 to discuss the situation [3]. Supply Dynamics - There is a significant increase in crude supplies in floating storage, with approximately 290 million barrels of Russian and Iranian crude currently stored on tankers, which is over 50% higher than the previous year due to sanctions and blockades [4]. - Venezuelan crude exports have risen to 800,000 bpd in January from 498,000 bpd in December, contributing to the increase in global oil supplies and exerting further bearish pressure on prices [6].

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices experienced a significant decline, with WTI crude oil down 2.77% and RBOB gasoline down 3.18%, attributed to easing US-Iran tensions and a risk-off sentiment in asset markets [1][2] Geopolitical Factors - Easing geopolitical risks between the US and Iran have contributed to lower crude prices, as President Trump expressed a preference for a nuclear deal [2] - The US is considering military actions in the Middle East, including seizing Iranian oil tankers and deploying additional naval forces, which could impact oil supply and prices if tensions escalate [3] Supply Dynamics - There is a notable increase in crude supplies in floating storage, with approximately 290 million barrels of Russian and Iranian crude currently stored, representing over a 50% increase from the previous year [2] - Venezuelan crude exports have risen significantly, from 498,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December to 800,000 bpd in January, further contributing to global oil supply and bearish price pressures [4] Market Sentiment - The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to support oil prices due to restrictions on Russian crude, as the Kremlin indicates no resolution is in sight, maintaining a risk premium in the market [5]

Group 1 - Crude oil and gasoline prices are under pressure due to concerns over energy demand following stagnant US retail sales in December, which were unchanged month-over-month, contrary to the expected increase of +0.4% [1][2] - The stagnation in retail sales may lead to a downward revision in Q4 GDP, further negatively impacting energy demand and crude prices [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are adding a risk premium to crude prices, with fears of military action potentially disrupting key shipping lanes and affecting Iran's crude production of 3.3 million barrels per day [3] Group 2 - An increase in Venezuelan crude exports, rising to 800,000 barrels per day in January from 498,000 barrels per day in December, is contributing to a boost in global oil supplies, which is bearish for prices [4] - Ongoing geopolitical issues, particularly the unresolved territorial disputes between Russia and Ukraine, are likely to maintain restrictions on Russian crude, which supports oil prices [5]

March WTI crude oil (CLH26) on Friday closed up +0.26 (+0.41%), and March RBOB gasoline (RBH26) closed up +0.0266 (+1.38%). Crude oil and gasoline prices recovered from early losses on Friday and moved higher after the dollar (DXY00) weakened.   Also, doubts that the US-Iranian talks in Oman will lead to a breakthrough in a nuclear deal are underpinning oil prices after the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran stands by its refusal to end uranium enrichment, a major sticking point for the US.  Crude pri ...

March WTI crude oil (CLH26) today is up +0.79 (+1.25%), and March RBOB gasoline (RBH26) is up +0.0291 (+1.51%). Crude oil and gasoline prices recovered from early losses today and moved higher after the dollar weakened.   Also, concerns that the US-Iranian talks in Oman will not lead to a breakthrough in a nuclear deal are underpinning oil prices, after the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran stands by its refusal to end uranium enrichment, a major sticking point for the US.  Crude prices added to thei ...

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices experienced a significant decline due to a stronger dollar and easing US-Iran tensions, alongside disappointing US labor market data [1][2][3] Price Movements - March WTI crude oil closed down by $1.85 (-2.84%) and March RBOB gasoline fell by $0.0386 (-1.96%) [1] - Crude prices had previously spiked after reports of potential military action against Iran, which could disrupt oil supplies [2][4] Geopolitical Factors - Easing tensions between the US and Iran were highlighted by the announcement of nuclear talks scheduled for Friday, which contributed to the drop in crude prices [2] - The potential for military strikes against Iran remains a concern, as it could impact key shipping lanes and Iran's crude production of 3.3 million barrels per day [2][4] Labor Market Data - Recent US labor market data showed a significant increase in job cuts, rising by 117.8% year-over-year to 108,435, marking the highest level for January since 2009 [3] - Initial unemployment claims rose by 22,000 to an 8-week high of 231,000, while job openings unexpectedly fell to a 5.25-year low of 6.542 million [3] Trade Relations - Support for crude prices was noted as President Trump announced plans to roll back tariffs on India in exchange for India ceasing purchases of Russian oil, with Russian crude deliveries to India dropping to 1.2 million barrels per day in December, the lowest in over three years [5]

Core Viewpoint - Crude oil and gasoline prices are experiencing mixed movements due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a bullish EIA report indicating a decline in crude supplies [1][2] Group 1: Market Movements - March WTI crude oil is down by $0.06 (-0.09%), while March RBOB gasoline is up by $0.0154 (+0.81%) [1] - Crude prices are under pressure from a stronger dollar, but losses are limited due to a positive weekly EIA report showing a larger-than-expected drop in crude supplies [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Hopes for easing tensions in the Middle East are influencing crude prices, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi set to meet with US envoy Witkoff to discuss Iran's nuclear program and potential sanctions relief [2] - President Trump's recent comments about US military readiness in the Middle East have contributed to a rally in crude oil prices, reaching a 5.75-month high [3] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Crude oil support is bolstered by President Trump's decision to roll back tariffs on India in exchange for India ceasing Russian oil purchases, with Russian crude deliveries to India dropping to approximately 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in December [4] - An increase in Venezuelan crude exports, rising to 800,000 bpd in January from 498,000 bpd in December, is contributing to global oil supply and exerting bearish pressure on prices [4] Group 4: Ongoing Conflicts - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is expected to maintain restrictions on Russian crude, which is bullish for oil prices as the Kremlin indicates no resolution is in sight [5] Group 5: Production and Consumption Estimates - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its 2026 global crude surplus estimate down to 3.7 million bpd from 3.815 million bpd [6] - The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has increased its 2026 US crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd while reducing its energy consumption estimate to 95.37 quadrillion British thermal units (btu) [6]