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汇丰:中国半导体行业 - 关税可能带来又一个 “新冠式” 周期
汇丰· 2025-04-21 05:09
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AccoTest and a "Hold" rating for SG Micro and Maxscend [4][8][56]. Core Insights - The latest import tariff regulations on US semiconductors are expected to create a supply shortage, price hikes, and import substitution, particularly benefiting domestic analog and RF markets [8][10]. - The localization trend in the semiconductor industry is anticipated to accelerate due to China-US tensions, enhancing the bargaining power of domestic companies [11][22]. - The report highlights that analog (over 20%) and RF (approximately 50%) segments will benefit significantly from higher tariffs on US suppliers, while memory and advanced logic categories are less affected [3][10]. Summary by Sections Company Ratings and Estimates - AccoTest is projected to have a target price of RMB 182.50, reflecting an 18% upside from its current price [5][56]. - SG Micro's target price is adjusted to RMB 100.60, indicating a 10% downside from its current price, maintaining a Hold rating due to tariff tensions [4][34]. - Maxscend's target price is revised to RMB 79.70, also maintaining a Hold rating, with a 4% downside from the current price [41][45]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the localization ratio for analog ICs was 24% in 2024, with expectations for further increases due to tariff impacts [11][22]. - Domestic suppliers are expected to gain market share in the RF segment, particularly in mid- to high-tier smartphone models, as tariffs incentivize localization [15][16]. - The report notes that while discrete and power semiconductors have achieved high localization rates, further upside in these areas is limited compared to analog and RF segments [22][24]. Financial Projections - SG Micro's revenue estimates for 2025 are increased by 2% to RMB 4,101 million, with net profit estimates raised by 7% to RMB 706 million [30][31]. - Maxscend's revenue estimates for 2025 are lowered by 2% to RMB 5,340 million, with net profit estimates reduced by 18% to RMB 551 million [41][44]. - AccoTest's revenue is projected to reach RMB 1,186 million in 2025, with a net profit of RMB 471 million [57].