Industry Overview - The waste management industry operates as an oligopoly, characterized by limited competition and significant pricing power due to the scarcity of landfill permits and the essential nature of waste disposal services [1] - The industry demonstrates resilience through economic cycles, including recessions and inflation, making it an attractive sector for investors [1] Company Summaries 1. Waste Management (NYSE:WM) - Waste Management is the largest player in the industry with a market cap of $92.4 billion and trailing revenue of $24.8 billion, owning over 250 landfills across North America [11] - The company reported a 5.2% growth in landfill volumes and achieved record operating EBITDA margins of 38.4% in Q3 2025 [11][12] - Waste Management expects free cash flow to approach $3.8 billion in 2026, with a return on equity of 29.3% and a consistent dividend of $3.30 annually [12][13] 2. Republic Services (NYSE:RSG) - Republic Services is the second-largest company with $16.5 billion in trailing revenue and a market cap of $67.9 billion, boasting operating margins of 19.9% [9] - The company is investing in sustainability, with seven renewable natural gas projects expected to generate $70 million in incremental revenue [10] - Republic's stock trades at 32x earnings, with a target price of $244.21, reflecting steady growth potential [10] 3. Waste Connections (NYSE:WCN) - Waste Connections focuses on secondary and tertiary cities, achieving $9.4 billion in revenue and 19.3% operating margins [6] - The company trades at 71x trailing earnings, with a forward multiple of 22x, indicating market expectations for recovery [7] - Waste Connections has consistently increased dividends, with a recent quarterly payout growth of 11% [7] 4. Casella Waste Systems (NASDAQ:CWST) - Casella Waste Systems, a regional specialist in the Northeast US, generated $1.8 billion in revenue with a year-over-year growth of 17.9% [4] - The company trades at 441x trailing earnings, indicating high valuation despite operational growth [5] - Casella's quarterly earnings increased by 60% year-over-year, showcasing its potential for margin expansion [5] 5. GFL Environmental Holdings (NYSE:GFL) - GFL Environmental is a Canadian company that has aggressively acquired smaller haulers, achieving $8.2 billion in revenue with 9% year-over-year growth [2] - The company has a high valuation, trading at 261x trailing earnings, with operating margins of 10.5% [3] - GFL's institutional ownership at 99.7% reflects confidence in its consolidation strategy, although it faces execution challenges [3]

Core Viewpoint - Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) is expected to report its first-quarter 2025 results on April 24, with a strong earnings surprise history, averaging 9.5% over the last four quarters [1] Revenue Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RSG's revenues is $4.1 billion, reflecting a 5.1% increase from the previous year, driven by innovative recycling technology and the RISE digital platform [1] - Revenue from the Collection segment is anticipated to be $2.7 billion, a 3.2% rise year-over-year [2] - Landfill revenues are expected at $440.5 million, indicating an 8.9% growth [2] - Transfer revenues are projected at $203.8 million, suggesting an 11.5% increase [2] - Environmental Solutions revenues are estimated at $466.3 million, reflecting a 10.2% year-over-year jump [2] - The Other segment's revenues are expected to be $199.5 million, indicating a 5.9% increase [2] Earnings and EBITDA Expectations - Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to be $1.2 billion, representing a 6.2% rise from the previous year [3] - The EBITDA margin is expected to be 30.5%, which indicates a decline of 40 basis points year-over-year [3] - The consensus estimate for earnings per share is $1.52, suggesting a 4.8% growth from the year-ago quarter [3] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for RSG, with an Earnings ESP of -0.30% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [4]