Investor Presentation March 2026 Owner: Aaron Updated? (Y/N): Y Tie-out: Alex Reviewed? (Y/N): Y Note: Changed Date Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements and information included herein constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Federal Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements with respect to our anticipated 2026 financial results. Words such as "will," "expect," "anticipate," "estimate," "guidance" and similar words and phrases are used in this p ...

The industry’s oligopoly means only a handful of waste removal companies trade publicly on U.S. exchanges, limiting investment choices. With this context, let’s turn to three companies that offer an attractive combination of upside, consistency, and dividend income while also helping limit exposure to fluctuating fuel costs.This blend of essential demand and regulatory obstacles often makes for a solid defensive investment. Historically, waste management firms have performed well during market corrections a ...

Core Insights - Republic Services reported mixed fourth-quarter 2025 results, with earnings per share of $1.76 beating estimates by 8.7% and growing 11.4% year-over-year, while revenues of $4.1 billion missed estimates by 1.8% but increased 2.2% year-over-year [2] Financial Performance - Collection segment revenues totaled $2.8 billion, up 3.8% year-over-year but below the consensus estimate of $2.9 billion [3] - Environmental Solutions revenues declined 12.4% year-over-year to $422 million, missing the consensus projection of $438.2 million [3] - Transfer segment revenues were $214 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of $213.5 million, while Landfill segment revenues of $467 million fell short of the $484 million estimate [3] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $1.3 billion, reflecting a 3.4% increase year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 31.3% [4] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - At the end of Q4 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $76 million, down from $84 million at the end of Q3 2025 [5] - Long-term debt increased to $13 billion from $12.4 billion in the previous quarter [5] - Cash generated from operating activities was $981 million, with adjusted free cash flow of $242 million and capital expenditure of $577 million [5] 2026 Guidance - For 2026, Republic Services expects revenues between $17.05 billion and $17.15 billion, with adjusted EPS projected in the range of $7.20-$7.28 [6] - Adjusted EBITDA is estimated to be between $5.475 billion and $5.525 billion, while adjusted free cash flow is expected to be $2.52 billion to $2.56 billion [6] Market Sentiment - There has been a downward trend in estimates revision over the past month, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [7][10] - Republic Services holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting an expectation of in-line returns in the coming months [10] Industry Comparison - Republic Services is part of the Zacks Waste Removal Services industry, which has seen Waste Connections report a 5% year-over-year revenue increase to $2.37 billion [11] - Waste Connections' EPS for the same period was $1.29, up from $1.16 a year ago, with a projected earnings increase of 6.2% for the current quarter [12]

Republic Services Again Recognized Among the World's Most Ethical Companies Accessibility StatementSkip Navigation Company's eighth year on the list, highlighting its ongoing commitment to ethics, compliance and corporate governance PHOENIX, March 18, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Republic Services, Inc. (NYSE: RSG), a leader in the environmental services industry, has been named to Ethisphere's list of the World's Most Ethical Companies® for the eighth time. The company is among 138 honorees representing 17 countri ...

Company Overview - Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) is positioned as a high-quality, recession-resilient business in the essential waste management industry, characterized by a local duopoly or oligopoly market structure [2] - The company’s share was trading at $225.78 as of March 12th, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 32.67 and 30.67 respectively [1] Industry Structure - The waste management sector has significant barriers to entry, including challenges in obtaining landfill permits, capital intensity for truck fleets, and logistical complexities in waste collection [2] - These structural advantages limit new competition, allowing established players like Republic Services to maintain strong regional market positions [2] Demand Stability - Waste generation is largely non-cyclical, ensuring stable demand for Republic Services even during economic downturns [3] - The company can exercise pricing power across its services, gradually increasing rates while retaining customers due to the essential nature of its offerings [3] Revenue Diversification - Republic Services has expanded into higher-margin opportunities through recycling operations and environmental services, diversifying revenue streams and enhancing profitability [3][4] - The focus on sustainability and responsible waste handling aligns with growing regulatory and corporate emphasis, allowing the company to capture additional value from waste processing [4] Financial Performance - The company has demonstrated durable cash flow generation, operational scale, and steady margin expansion, reflecting strong long-term stock performance [5] - Consistent growth is supported by reliable demand, disciplined pricing, and strategic investments in complementary environmental services [5] Comparative Analysis - Ocular Capital emphasizes Republic Services' durable pricing power and structural industry barriers, similar to a previous bullish thesis on Waste Management, Inc. (WM) [6] - The focus on recession-resilient cash flow generation positions Republic Services favorably in comparison to its peers [6]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the S&P 500's stagnation and rising market anxiety, certain companies are thriving due to their immunity to tariff impacts and strong operational fundamentals [1]. Group 1: Waste Management (NYSE:WM) - Waste Management operates without international revenue, making it immune to tariff fluctuations, and reported a 2025 revenue of $25.204 billion, a 14.24% increase year-over-year [2]. - The company achieved a 30% adjusted EBITDA margin for the first time, with core pricing growth of 6.3% in 2025 [2]. - Free cash flow is expected to grow nearly 30% in 2026, supported by investments in recycling and renewable energy [2]. - The stock is up 12% year-to-date, trading at approximately 30x forward earnings, with a target price of $253 [2]. Group 2: Republic Services (NYSE:RSG) - Republic Services, the second-largest waste hauler in the U.S., mirrors Waste Management's tariff immunity and has a strong pricing power [3]. - The company reported a 16.91% increase in free cash flow to $2.433 billion for 2025, with a revenue guidance of $17.05 to $17.15 billion for 2026 [4]. - Core pricing growth was 5.9% for 2025, and the company returned $1.6 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks [4]. - The stock is up 9.6% year-to-date, trading at about 32x trailing earnings, with a consensus target of $244 [5]. Group 3: Welltower (NYSE:WELL) - Welltower operates in the senior housing sector, which is not affected by tariffs, generating revenue from occupancy rates and healthcare rents [6]. - The company reported a 20.4% year-over-year growth in same-store NOI for 2025, with occupancy rates reaching 89.5% [7]. - Normalized FFO guidance for 2026 is between $6.09 and $6.25 per share, and the quarterly dividend was raised by 10.4% [7]. - The stock is up nearly 11% year-to-date and has increased 34.6% over the past year, with a target price of $227.50 [8]. Group 4: WEC Energy Group (NYSE:WEC) - WEC Energy Group operates regulated utilities, providing a tariff-proof business model with state-approved rates [9]. - The company reported an adjusted EPS of $5.27 for 2025, an 8% increase year-over-year, and guided for 2026 EPS of $5.51 to $5.61 [11]. - The dividend has grown for 23 consecutive years, currently yielding about 3%, with retail electricity deliveries up 2.2% in 2025 [11]. - The stock is up 11% year-to-date, nearing its 52-week high of $117.60 [12]. Group 5: Visa (NYSE:V) - Visa operates a business model that is unaffected by tariffs, generating revenue from electronic transactions rather than physical goods [13]. - The company reported Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue of $10.9 billion, a 14.6% year-over-year increase, with processed transactions rising by 9% to 69.4 billion [14]. - Despite being down about 8.6% year-to-date, Visa has a consensus target price of $400 compared to its current price near $320 [14]. Common Thread - Four of the five highlighted stocks are outperforming the S&P 500 by double digits in 2026, indicating a shift in Wall Street's focus towards businesses less affected by trade policy uncertainties [15].

Core Insights - The Republic Services Charitable Foundation announced the recipients of the 2026 National Neighborhood Promise grants, totaling $2.9 million, aimed at supporting community revitalization and improvement projects across the United States [1] - The grants are expected to positively impact approximately 1.7 million people and address pressing community needs such as green spaces, playgrounds, and workforce development [1] Grant Details - Fourteen nonprofit organizations will receive funding to enhance community resilience and sustainability [1] - The program has benefitted over 14 million people across North America to date [1] Community Projects - Specific projects include expanding facilities for youth mentorship in Virginia, revitalizing playgrounds in Texas, and developing housing for vulnerable students in Oklahoma [1] - Other initiatives involve creating parks in Massachusetts, transforming urban spaces in Illinois, and enhancing educational facilities in Arizona [1] Company Commitment - Republic Services emphasizes its commitment to fostering sustainable communities through volunteerism, monetary donations, and in-kind services [1] - The foundation aligns with Republic Services' 2030 Sustainability Goal to create sustainable neighborhoods for 45 million people [2]

Core Viewpoint - Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) is a leading player in the environmental services sector, with a market capitalization of $70.7 billion, providing solid waste collection and management services across various customer segments [1][2]. Company Overview - RSG operates in the waste management industry, offering services such as solid waste collection, transfer stations, landfills, and recycling facilities [1]. - The company is classified as a large-cap stock, emphasizing its significant size and influence within the industry [2]. Stock Performance - RSG's stock has experienced an 11% decline from its 52-week high of $258.75, reached on June 3, 2025, while gaining 8.3% over the past three months, which is lower than the 10% gain of the VanEck Environmental Services ETF (EVX) [3]. - Year-to-date, RSG shares have risen by 8.7%, but they have fallen 2.8% over the past 52 weeks, underperforming EVX's 10% YTD gains and 16.5% returns over the last year [4]. Financial Performance - In Q4, RSG reported an adjusted EPS of $1.76, surpassing Wall Street's expectation of $1.62, while its revenue of $4.1 billion fell short of the forecasted $4.2 billion [7]. - The company anticipates full-year adjusted EPS between $7.20 and $7.28, with revenue projected between $17.1 billion and $17.2 billion [7]. Competitive Landscape - RSG's competitor, Waste Management, Inc. (WM), has outperformed RSG with a 10.6% gain year-to-date and 4.4% returns over the past 52 weeks [8]. - Analysts maintain a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating for RSG, with a mean price target of $246.87, indicating a potential upside of 7.2% from current levels [8]. Market Challenges - RSG's recent underperformance is attributed to softer volumes in construction and manufacturing, alongside organic volume declines in specific sectors and nonrecurring landfill projects [6].

Core Viewpoint - The London Company Large Cap Strategy's fourth-quarter 2025 investor letter indicates a mixed market environment with US equities showing higher returns, while the portfolio underperformed compared to the Russell 1000 Index due to volatility and concentrated market leadership [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - In Q4 2025, US equities experienced a 2.4% increase in the Russell 3000 Index, marking the third consecutive quarter of higher returns [1]. - The London Company Large Cap portfolio returned 0.4% (0.2% net), underperforming the Russell 1000 Index's 2.4% increase [1]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The economic and policy backdrop heading into 2026 presents a mix of confidence and doubt, with the portfolio aiming to support long-term wealth creation while managing downside risk [1]. Group 3: Republic Services, Inc. (NYSE:RSG) - Republic Services, Inc. is highlighted as a leading environmental services company with a market capitalization of $67.701 billion [2]. - The stock closed at $216.84 per share on February 18, 2026, with a one-month return of -0.51% and a 12-month increase of 6.07% [2]. - The London Company increased its exposure to Republic Services, citing its defensive and resilient business model despite short-term headwinds in the waste management industry [3]. - Operational strength through pricing power and cost controls has led to stronger margins for Republic Services [3]. - Recent insider buying is viewed as a positive indicator of the company's attractive valuation [3]. Group 4: Hedge Fund Interest - Republic Services is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 51 hedge fund portfolios holding the stock at the end of Q3 2025, down from 60 in the previous quarter [4]. - While acknowledging Republic Services' potential, the company believes certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and less downside risk [4].

Core Viewpoint - Republic Services Inc reported disappointing fourth-quarter sales results and provided FY26 guidance that fell short of market expectations [1][2] Financial Performance - The company reported quarterly earnings of $1.76 per share, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $1.62 per share [1] - Quarterly sales amounted to $4.136 billion, which was below the analyst consensus estimate of $4.207 billion [1] FY26 Guidance - Republic Services projected FY2026 adjusted EPS in the range of $7.20 to $7.28, compared to market estimates of $7.31 [2] - The company anticipates sales between $17.050 billion and $17.150 billion, while expectations were for $17.328 billion [2] Stock Market Reaction - Following the earnings announcement, Republic Services shares declined by 4.9%, trading at $210.30 [2] Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - BMO Capital analyst Devin Dodge maintained an Outperform rating but reduced the price target from $251 to $248 [3] - Morgan Stanley analyst Toni Kaplan kept an Equal-Weight rating and lowered the price target from $230 to $225 [3]