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摩根士丹利:新产业-2025 年中国最佳会议反馈
摩根· 2025-05-12 03:14
Investment Rating - Stock Rating: Overweight [5] - Industry View: Attractive [5] - Price Target: Rmb67.00, representing a 28% upside from the current price of Rmb52.30 [5] Core Insights - The report projects single-digit growth for China in 2025, with a focus on faster growth in analyzer installations compared to reagent sales [2] - SNIBE aims for a 15% market share in CLIA in China within three years, with expectations of positive growth in reagent sales by the latter half of 2025 [2][8] - The company has a backlog of over 40 TLAs overseas and anticipates a 25-30% CAGR in overseas markets, despite aggressive targets [3][8] Summary by Sections Financial Projections - Expected revenue growth of approximately 15% in 2025, with mid/high single-digit growth in China and 25-30% growth overseas [8] - Net profit growth is projected at around 10% [8] - Management is considering increasing the dividend payout ratio to over 60% in 2025, up from 56% in 2024 [8] Market Position and Strategy - SNIBE's long-term strategy includes strengthening relationships with domestic vendors due to pricing pressures, which is expected to enhance distributor incentives [2] - The company is exploring the establishment of local supply chains in Russia and potentially in Europe in the future [8] Valuation Metrics - The report utilizes a discounted cash flow methodology with a WACC of 8.8% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.0% starting from 2025 [9]