Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Lagos real estate market, highlighting its role as a major economic pillar in Nigeria, particularly after the GDP rebasing exercise [4][15]. Core Insights - The Nigerian economy is transitioning towards stabilization and growth, with a notable GDP growth of 3.98% in Q3 2025, driven by a resilient non-oil sector [5][15]. - Real estate has emerged as the third-largest sector in the rebased economy, contributing 13.36% to total real GDP, underscoring its structural importance [9][15]. - Inflation has moderated significantly, decreasing from 25.3% in June to 15.15% by December 2025, which is expected to support market stability [12][15]. - The naira has stabilized within a managed band, supported by a significant increase in external reserves, which reached $45.45 billion by December 2025 [13][15]. - The enactment of the Nigeria Tax Act 2025 is anticipated to enhance the macro environment for real estate, promoting formal agreements between landlords and tenants [14][30]. Economic Update - The GDP rebasing exercise revealed a larger and more diversified economy, with nominal GDP revised upward by 41.7% [4]. - Real estate's contribution to GDP highlights its critical role in national wealth, with a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 3.50% [5][9]. - The construction sector outperformed the broader economy with a real growth rate of 5.57%, driven by public infrastructure projects [11]. Residential Market Review - Residential rents in Lagos continued to rise despite moderated inflation, driven by strong demand and constrained supply [22][32]. - Government interventions have facilitated the delivery of 653 residential units through public-private partnerships [23][32]. - The launch of the MOFI Real Estate Investment Fund offering long-term loans at 9.75% indicates ongoing public sector efforts to address housing shortages [24][32]. Retail Market Review - The retail sector has seen limited new development, with a gradual reconfiguration of tenant mix and retail strategies [33][39]. - Indigenous convenience-focused brands have gained traction, reflecting a shift towards cost-efficient retail formats [33][39]. - The average prime retail rents in Lagos are aligned with several African peers, indicating competitive pricing [35]. Office Market Review - The Lagos office market is showing signs of recovery, with Grade A occupancy levels reaching 73% [40][47]. - Rental performance has softened, particularly for prime assets, with effective rents adjusting downward to support occupancy [41][47]. - The emergence of new office developments in Ikeja indicates continued demand for modern office spaces [43][47]. Industrial Market Review - The industrial sector remains resilient, supported by logistics demand and manufacturing activity within Special Economic Zones [49][56]. - Prime industrial rents vary significantly based on infrastructure quality, with Grade A demand accelerating in well-serviced areas [51][56]. - The demand for warehouse spaces has grown approximately 25% year-on-year, reflecting the sector's expansion [74][56]. Infrastructure and Data Centre Market Review - Key infrastructure projects, including the Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway and the Lagos Green Line Rail Project, are advancing, enhancing connectivity [57][63]. - The data centre market in Lagos is valued at approximately $1.4 billion, indicating strong investor interest and capacity additions [59][63]. Port Harcourt Real Estate Market - Port Harcourt's real estate market is driven by the oil sector, with residential demand growing at an estimated 12-15% [65][87]. - The retail sector has expanded significantly, driven by a rising middle class and consumer preferences for modern shopping environments [67][87]. - Industrial land prices have risen 10-20% over three years, with demand for warehouses increasing by about 25% year-on-year [74][87]. Abuja Real Estate Market - Abuja's real estate market is characterized by high demand and strong capital appreciation, with average property prices projected to rise by 10-15% annually in prime areas [81][98]. - The market is shifting towards integrated, technology-enabled commercial spaces, reflecting evolving tenant needs [85][98]. - The persistent housing deficit and urbanization are driving demand for middle-to-low-income housing in satellite towns [92][98].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue increased by 1.8% to $249 million compared to Q4 2024, driven by both office and multifamily revenues [13] - Funds from Operations (FFO) decreased to $0.35 per share, and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) decreased to $53 million due to increased interest expenses and lower interest income [13] - Same-property cash Net Operating Income (NOI) decreased by 1.4% for the quarter, primarily due to higher office operating expenses, although multifamily NOI growth partially offset this [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved 100,000 sq ft of net positive office absorption in Q4, with strong demand and high retention rates [4] - Multifamily segment reported full occupancy and a nearly 5% increase in same-property cash NOI compared to the prior year [4] - The company signed 896 office leases totaling 3.4 million sq ft for the full year of 2025, with 224 office leases covering 906,000 sq ft signed in Q4 [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Office tenant demand was diversified across various industries, with no single segment exceeding 20% of tenant demand in Q4 [11] - The company noted that financial services, legal, health services, education, and real estate led the demand [11] - The only market that experienced a dip in Q4 was Hawaii, while all other markets in L.A. showed positive movement [102] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to focus on office leasing and re-tenanting Studio Plaza, with a straightforward strategic plan for 2026 [6] - Construction is set to begin on 10900 Wilshire, converting an existing office tower into residential units, and the Landmark Residences redevelopment is also underway [5][8] - The company aims to capitalize on attractive acquisitions in the current market cycle, believing that current valuations offer significant discounts to long-term values [6][88] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term fundamentals of their markets and the quality of their portfolio, despite acknowledging potential challenges in 2026 [6] - The company remains cautious about occupancy growth, with guidance reflecting increased interest expenses and no assumptions of occupancy growth despite positive Q4 results [13][14] - Management noted that political initiatives and regulations could impact operations and G&A costs in 2026 [51][53] Other Important Information - The company executed nearly $2 billion in debt transactions at competitive rates, extending its maturity profile and strengthening its balance sheet [5] - Management indicated that the anti-rent gouging ordinance has not materially impacted their operations or rent growth [91][94] - The company has significant development sites in Honolulu, with plans to build additional residential units as market conditions align [75] Q&A Session Summary Question: Stock performance and acquisition strategy - Management indicated a preference for acquisitions over stock buybacks, citing concerns about increasing leverage through buybacks [19][21] Question: Market demand and absorption trends - Management expressed hope that positive absorption trends indicate a fundamental shift in market demand, although caution remains for the upcoming year [22][23] Question: Industry consolidation impact - Management does not foresee significant negative impacts from media industry consolidation, believing it may rejuvenate demand for their tenants [29] Question: Development pipeline and yields - Management confirmed that they are actively planning additional residential projects, with expected yields above 8% [34][58] Question: Guidance on straight-line rent and NOI - Management explained that higher straight-line rent guidance reflects existing leases and new leasing activity, but they are not ready to provide specific NOI breakdowns for Studio Plaza [39] Question: UCLA lease expirations and political initiatives - Management clarified that UCLA operates independently across departments, and political initiatives have led to increased G&A costs but have not materially impacted operations [46][51]