Core Insights - The final reading for the 2025 holiday shopping season indicated flat retail sales at $735.0 billion, missing the expected 0.5% increase, with a year-over-year growth of 2.4% against a 2.7% rise in the Consumer Price Index, suggesting weak real spending momentum [1][10] Retail Performance Analysis - Large U.S. retailers like Walmart, Costco, and Alibaba are under pressure due to disappointing year-end sales, impacting profit margins and earnings, which raises concerns for retail ETFs that include these companies [2] - The stagnation in December retail sales was attributed to several economic factors, including persistent inflation, economic uncertainty, early promotions that pulled sales forward, and a K-shaped consumer behavior where higher-income households remained stable while lower-income households reduced spending [4][5][6][7] Future Outlook - The retail sector's recovery depends on moderating inflation and a rebounding U.S. economy, with expectations for gradual improvement in real consumer spending if demand stabilizes and retailers manage costs effectively [8][9] - Analysts project U.S. retail sales to grow by 3.5% year-over-year in 2026, with inflation anticipated to remain between 2.6% and 3.0% [11] Retail ETFs Spotlight - **State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT)**: AUM of $681.4 million, exposure to 73 companies, gained 10.2% over the past year, charges 35 bps in fees [12][13] - **VanEck Retail ETF (RTH)**: AUM of $265.2 million, exposure to 26 companies, rallied 9.5% over the past year, charges 35 bps in fees [14] - **ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN)**: Net asset value of $52.84 million, exposure to 20 online retail stocks, gained 3% over the past year, charges 58 bps in fees [15] - **Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY)**: AUM of $124.5 million, exposure to 81 companies in online retail, charges 65 bps in fees [16]