Summary of Hong Kong Property Market Conference Call Industry Overview - **Focus**: Hong Kong Property Market, specifically Office and Retail sectors - **Key Preference**: Office sector is preferred over retail due to improving vacancy rates and rental conditions in Central Hong Kong [1][10] Key Insights on Office Sector - **2026 Rental Forecast**: Central office rents expected to increase by +3% (compared to -2% in 2025), while overall office rents projected to decline by -3% [3] - **Demand Drivers**: Increased demand from tech companies, asset management, and wealth management firms is anticipated to help cap rate compression [3][9] - **Vacancy Trends**: Office vacancies are declining, with Central benefiting first from the recovery [10] Key Insights on Retail Sector - **2026 Sales Forecast**: Retail sales expected to rise by +3% (up from +2% in 2025), but rental rates projected to decrease by -3% [4] - **Visitor Trends**: Increased visitation from mainlanders to Hong Kong is noted, but challenges include competition from Shenzhen and mainland e-commerce [4] - **Risks**: Rising unemployment rates pose a risk to retail sales recovery [4] Company-Specific Updates Hongkong Land (HKLD.SI) - **Rating**: Upgraded to Overweight with a price target of USD 7.60 (previously USD 6.50) [5][20] - **Key Drivers**: Strong execution in capital recycling, stabilizing rentals in Central, and transformation into an asset manager [20][21] - **Earnings Revisions**: Slight adjustments in EPS estimates for FY25/FY26/FY27E, with a projected mid-single-digit growth in DPS [25][26] Hang Lung Properties (HLP) - **Rating**: Overweight with a price target of HKD 10.70 (previously HKD 10.50) [5][42] - **Growth Drivers**: Positive tenant sales growth in China, expansion of retail space, and a new capital-efficient strategy [42][43] - **Earnings Revisions**: Adjustments in EPS estimates reflecting improved operating conditions [48][49] Swire Properties - **Rating**: Upgraded to Overweight with a price target of HKD 23.00 (previously HKD 20.00) [5][52] - **Key Factors**: Improving office fundamentals, resilient retail sales in China, and active capital recycling initiatives [52][53] - **Earnings Revisions**: Slight increases in profit estimates for FY25/FY26/FY27E [59][61] Hysan Development - **Rating**: Upgraded to Equal-weight with a price target of HKD 19.00 [5][63] - **Market Position**: Gaining market share in Causeway Bay, with new developments expected to enhance foot traffic [63] - **Concerns**: Potential negative rental reversion and dividend cut risks due to financial obligations [63] Link REIT - **Rating**: Downgraded to Equal-weight with a price target of HKD 37.00 (previously HKD 48.00) [5][28] - **Challenges**: Persisting negative rental reversion and competition from e-commerce and rising unemployment [28][36] - **Earnings Revisions**: Adjustments in EPU and DPU estimates reflecting ongoing challenges in the retail sector [39][40] Wharf REIC - **Rating**: Underweight due to market share losses and persistent negative reversion [5][14] - **Risks**: Tenant retention issues and competition from luxury retail in mainland China [14] Conclusion - The Hong Kong property market is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the office sector, while the retail sector faces significant challenges. Companies with strong capital recycling strategies and exposure to the Central office market are favored for investment.

Core Insights - Retail chains in the United States are expanding their physical presence, indicating a recovery in retail real estate despite macroeconomic challenges [1] - Retailers occupied 5.5 million more square feet than they vacated in Q3 2025, reflecting a positive shift in the market [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Vacancy rates in retail-property markets are historically low, contributing to a "retail renaissance" where demand for physical retail space is increasing while supply remains limited [2] - 2025 is projected to be one of the lowest years for new retail-space delivery in decades, leading to a concentration of demand in discount, grocery-anchored, and value-oriented chains [3] Group 2: Retail Strategy - Retailers are shifting towards smaller store formats and locations in suburban or neighborhood areas instead of large flagship stores [4] - This strategy aligns with changing consumer behavior, where convenience and proximity are prioritized over large destination malls [5] Group 3: Implications for Investors - The combination of tight supply and renewed demand suggests that acquiring retail properties may become more competitive, leading to higher rents and stronger occupancy rates [6] - Global retail operators and investors may find this an advantageous time to secure locations that support both retail and fulfillment, particularly in resilient essential retail sectors [7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Hong Kong conglomerates and property sector, highlighting a macroeconomic environment that is stabilizing and showing signs of recovery in various segments, particularly in residential and retail markets [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Macroeconomic Recovery**: The macro environment in Hong Kong is expected to bottom out within the year, with residential transaction volumes increasing and retail sales turning positive after a year of decline. Housing prices have increased by 1% since mid-March, and retail sales rose by 2% year-over-year in May [1][2]. - **Office Market Dynamics**: Despite high office vacancy rates (13-14%), demand is picking up due to a buoyant stock market and resumed capital market activities. The expectation is that office rents, particularly in prime areas, will stabilize as new supply is absorbed [1][2]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The sector is trading at a significant discount to NAV (50-60%) and offers attractive dividend yields (4-6%). Future upside is contingent on the recovery of property prices and rents [2][9]. - **Earnings Forecasts**: The covered companies are expected to show a narrower decline or turnaround in earnings in the upcoming 1H25 results, with a forecast of 5% growth in housing prices and 2% growth in retail rentals [2][9]. Company-Specific Insights - **Jardine Matheson**: Upgraded to Buy due to improving return on equity (ROE) and shareholder returns, with expectations of upside risk to consensus earnings estimates driven by business improvements in Dairy Farm and HKLand [9][16]. - **MTR Corporation**: Downgraded to Neutral due to heavy capital expenditures and capped dividend payouts, with concerns over the impact of a slowdown in patronage growth on earnings [9][16]. - **Swire Properties and Hang Lung Properties**: These companies are expected to benefit from improved market sentiment and have seen a narrowing of tenant sale declines [11][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Retail Sales Recovery**: Retail sales in Hong Kong turned positive in May, supported by an increase in Chinese tourists. The recovery is broad-based across product categories, with department stores and cosmetics showing significant growth [11]. - **Office Market Recovery**: Office take-up improved significantly in May, with a positive net take-up reported in core districts. Spot rents have stabilized, and leasing inquiries have increased, particularly from financial firms [11][12]. - **Interest Rate Impact**: The decline in 1M HIBOR from 4.39% to 0.92% has provided interest cost savings for companies, although a gradual increase is expected in the second half of the year [12][14]. - **Capital Raising Activities**: Companies have been opportunistic in raising capital, with several issuing bonds and convertible securities to strengthen their balance sheets [14][19]. - **Dividend Sustainability**: There is less risk of dividend payout cuts, with most companies expected to maintain or slightly grow their dividends, supported by improved earnings and cash flows [14][19]. Conclusion - The Hong Kong property and conglomerate sector is showing signs of recovery, with positive trends in residential and retail markets. Companies like Jardine Matheson are positioned for growth, while others like MTRC face challenges. Overall, the outlook for earnings and dividends appears stable, with potential for further upside as market conditions improve.