Core Viewpoint - India is navigating a complex geopolitical economic situation, attempting to persuade the U.S. to lift tariffs imposed due to its imports of Russian oil while state-owned refiners continue to procure Russian crude to meet domestic demand despite risks of sanctions [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Tariffs and India's Response - U.S. President Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian products due to India's "direct or indirect imports of Russian oil" [1]. - India has expressed that the U.S. tariff imposition is "unfair, unjust, and unreasonable," and it will take necessary actions to protect its national interests [1]. - Indian Ambassador to the U.S. requested Senator Lindsay Graham to lobby for the removal of tariffs, citing a reduction in Russian oil purchases [2]. Group 2: State-Owned Refiners' Activity - Despite a decline in overall Russian oil demand in December, state-owned refiners like Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) remain active in purchasing Russian crude through non-sanctioned suppliers [3]. - The resilience of state-owned refiners indicates a redistribution of demand rather than a market collapse, driven by domestic fuel needs and economic pricing [3]. - India's Energy Minister stated that India will source oil from any location as long as the terms are favorable [3]. Group 3: Private Sector Withdrawal Impact - The decline in India's Russian oil imports is primarily attributed to the withdrawal of private refiners, particularly Reliance Industries, which reduced its purchases significantly before U.S. sanctions were formally imposed [4]. - Data shows that India's Russian oil imports fell by 595,000 barrels per day in December, reaching a low of 1.24 million barrels per day, the lowest since December 2022 [4]. - Market forecasts suggest a potential rebound in Russian oil imports, with Rystad Energy predicting a "moderate recovery" to 1.8 million barrels per day in January [4].

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