Core Viewpoint - Chevron Corp. is set to export up to 1 million barrels of crude oil from Venezuela despite increasing U.S. pressure on the country's oil trade following accusations from President Trump regarding Venezuela's use of oil revenues for illicit activities [1][2]. Group 1: Chevron's Operations - Chevron has successfully loaded a crude cargo onto the tanker Searuby and is in the process of loading another shipment onto the Minerva Astra [2]. - The company holds a U.S. government license that permits it to produce and export Venezuelan crude, ensuring its vessels are not subject to sanctions [3]. - Chevron's operations in Venezuela are reported to be ongoing without disruption and in full compliance with U.S. laws and sanctions frameworks [3]. Group 2: U.S. Government Actions - The Trump administration has activated a naval blockade aimed at preventing sanctioned vessels from entering or leaving Venezuela, escalating tensions in the region [4]. - U.S. authorities recently intercepted the supertanker Skipper, marking an unprecedented enforcement action [4]. Group 3: Impact on Venezuela's Oil Industry - Venezuela's oil industry is facing strain due to the crackdown, with reports indicating that the country may be forced to shut in production as storage tanks and port-based tankers reach capacity [5]. - Approximately 11 million barrels of Venezuelan crude are currently stranded at sea, leading to deeper discounts and tougher contract terms from buyers [5]. - The International Energy Agency estimates that Venezuela's crude production has declined to 860,000 barrels per day in November, down from over 1 million bpd in September, with further declines expected [6]. - Analysts warn that in a worst-case scenario, Venezuela could lose up to 500,000 bpd of production if export and diluent supply constraints persist [7].

Core Viewpoint - Venezuela is facing a potential shutdown of oil production due to a lack of storage space amid U.S. tanker blockades, which could lead to significant production curbs in the near future [1] Group 1: Oil Production and Storage - Venezuela's largest oil storage hub and tankers at its ports may reach full capacity within 10 days, necessitating production cuts [1] - The International Energy Agency reported that Venezuela's crude oil production is declining, with an estimated output of 860,000 barrels per day in November, down from 1.01 million bpd in October [3] - Further declines in oil supply are anticipated in December due to U.S. actions in Caribbean waters, including the seizure of tankers carrying Venezuelan crude [4] Group 2: Impact of U.S. Actions - Approximately 11 million barrels of Venezuelan crude are currently stranded at sea, leading to deeper discounts and changes in spot contracts demanded by buyers [2] - The U.S. is reportedly prepared to seize more tankers, with a list of targeted vessels already in place [4] - The blockade is also affecting Venezuela's supply of Russian naphtha, which is essential for diluting heavy crude, as at least one tanker carrying 32,000 metric tons of naphtha turned back to Europe [5] Group 3: Potential Production Loss - In a worst-case scenario, Venezuela could lose up to 500,000 barrels per day of oil production due to additional restrictions and a shortage of diluents [6]