With a handful of mega-cap tech and AI stocks at the top of the S&P 500 Index dominating the U.S. market in a way without historical precedent, portfolio concentration risk has taken on a new form for investors long told to follow some version of Warren Buffett's stock advice to "never bet against America."But with the nine tech stocks that are above Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway by weight in the index representing nearly 40% of the market, it's an imbalance that has investors looking for new ways to hedge. ...

We are all familiar with the so-called "October Effect.† Investopedia describes it this way: "The October effect refers to the belief that stocks tend to decline during the month of October. It is considered to be more of a psychological expectation than an actual phenomenon, as most statistics contradict the theory.† It's an interesting phenomenon, to use their word. We come into the month looking for an increased potential for market crashes, and an increase in volatility vs. previous months. We exp ...

For investors seeking momentum, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is probably on the radar. The fund just hit a 52-week high and is up 70.79% from its 52-week low price of $236.13/share.But are there more gains in store for this ETF? Let’s take a quick look at the fund and the near-term outlook on it to get a better idea of where it might be headed:GLD in FocusThis ETF is designed to track the spot price of gold bullion. The product charges 40 bps in annual fees (See: All Precious Metals ETFs).Why the Move?Gold has be ...

The price of gold has been on a spectacular run lately, hitting back-to-back record highs over the past two weeks and surging past the $4,300 per ounce mark on Oct. 17. Earlier in the session, gold was on track for its biggest weekly gain since September 2008, when the global market faced a financial crisis due to the collapse of Lehman Brothers (as reported by Reuters). However, by the end of Friday, gold saw a sharp 2% pullback, marking its biggest weekly loss in over two months. While some traders view t ...

Core Viewpoint - The traditional 60/40 portfolio is losing relevance as investors shift towards a 60/20/20 allocation, with increased emphasis on alternative assets like gold and bitcoin [1][3]. Group 1: Portfolio Allocation Changes - Investors are moving away from the traditional 60/40 portfolio due to stocks and bonds moving in the same direction too often, and bonds no longer providing the expected protection against inflation and geopolitical risks [2]. - The new allocation model consists of 60% in stocks, 20% in fixed income, and 20% in alternative assets, reflecting a significant reduction in fixed income's role [1][3]. Group 2: Gold's Rising Importance - Gold has transitioned from a marginal hedge to a core holding in investment portfolios, recently reaching a record high above $4,300 and increasing over 60% since the beginning of the year [3]. - Factors driving gold's rise include central bank demand, de-dollarization, geopolitical tensions, and what is termed "the debasement trade" [3]. Group 3: Gold ETFs Performance - Gold ETFs have seen significant performance increases, with SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (IAU) up approximately 11% this month [4]. - September marked the largest monthly inflows into gold ETFs ever, with nearly $11 billion, and SPDR Gold Shares alone attracted over $4 billion [4]. - Total assets moved into gold funds this year have exceeded $38 billion, indicating strong investor interest [4].

Core Insights - Gold prices have reached a historic high of $4,007 per ounce, marking the first time it has crossed the $4,000 threshold, with a surge of over 4% this week indicating strong market interest in safe-haven assets [1][2][7] Economic Factors - The rise in gold prices is attributed to multiple global and domestic pressures, including the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has increased market uncertainty, and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts that make yield-bearing assets less attractive [2][10] - Currency fluctuations, particularly a weaker U.S. dollar, have made gold cheaper for foreign buyers, further driving demand [5][21] Geopolitical Influences - Global tensions, such as political unrest in France and Japan and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened demand for secure investments like gold [3][11] - Central banks, notably China's People's Bank of China (PBOC), are actively increasing their gold reserves, which supports rising prices [3][12] Central Bank Activities - The PBOC has been on a gold buying streak for 11 consecutive months, adding approximately 1.24 tonnes in September 2025, bringing its total reserves to about 2,303.5 tonnes [12][13] - India's Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also been incrementally adding to its gold reserves, which stand at around 770 tonnes as of mid-2025, focusing on diversification and inflation-hedging strategies [14][24] Market Dynamics - Analysts caution that while gold may experience short-term volatility, long-term fundamentals remain strong, with economic instability and geopolitical risks likely to keep prices elevated through 2025 [4][9] - Increased trading volumes in both physical and paper gold markets indicate heightened activity, which could influence short-term price movements [7][17] Investment Considerations - For investors, this moment is critical, with Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) like SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (IAU) providing exposure to gold without the need for physical ownership [8][16] - Experts recommend a moderate allocation of around 5-15% of a portfolio to gold, balancing risk and reward while considering the potential for price corrections [21][24] Strategic Outlook - The outlook for gold remains cautiously bullish for the next 12-18 months, with opportunities for gains but also risks of price corrections, necessitating close monitoring of monetary policy, inflation trends, and geopolitical developments [15][24] - Prominent investors advocate for significant gold allocations in portfolios, with suggestions ranging from 15% to 25% due to ongoing economic uncertainties and inflationary pressures [19][22]

Core Insights - Gold prices have surged by 27.01% over the past six months and 53.85% year to date, reaching over $4,000, making it one of the best-performing assets of the year [1] - Strong investor inflows into gold ETFs, a weaker dollar, and sustained central bank buying are driving this increase [1][2] - Market expectations of further Fed rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions could extend gold's gains into 2026, suggesting a favorable environment for increased portfolio allocation to gold [2] ETF Demand and Projections - Investor demand for gold-backed ETFs surged in September, marking the largest inflows in over three years [6] - Goldman Sachs and UBS have raised their gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs projecting a price of $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, up from $4,300 [5][6] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 94.6% likelihood of an interest rate cut in October and a 99.3% likelihood in December, which is expected to further support gold prices [4] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider allocating up to 15% of their portfolios to gold, contrary to traditional advice of limiting alternative asset classes to single-digit percentages [3] - A long-term passive investment strategy is recommended to navigate short-term market fluctuations, with a "buy-the-dip" approach suggested for potential declines in gold prices [9] ETF Options - For physical gold exposure, investors can consider SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM), abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL), and iShares Gold Trust Micro (IAUM) [8] - GLD is noted for its liquidity with an average trading volume of 14.48 million shares and an asset base of $128.64 billion, making it the largest among gold ETFs [10] - For gold miners, options include VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM), VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), and Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ), with GDX being the most liquid and having an asset base of $22.96 billion [11][12]

$4,000 per ounce for the first time in history. Spot gold is trading near $4,014, marking a stunning 50% gain year-to-date. Investors are rushing to gold as fears over inflation and global instability rise. The precious metal is drawing attention worldwide. Traders see gold as a safe-haven amid economic uncertainty. Rising prices have triggered headlines across markets, signaling one of the strongest rallies in years. Inflation concerns continue to push investors toward stable assets. With central banks buy ...

Core Insights - Gold is experiencing a significant surge in demand, with ETF sales reaching record levels as its price hit $4,000 per ounce [1] - The ongoing US government shutdown is contributing to investor uncertainty, leading to increased interest in gold and cryptocurrencies as alternative assets [2][3] - Historical performance data shows gold has outperformed equities and global bonds over the past 20 years, with predictions of a near $5,000 per ounce price by the end of 2026 [4] ETF Market Dynamics - In September, over $9 billion flowed into US gold ETFs, marking the highest monthly inflow ever recorded [3] - State Street's SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) was the largest beneficiary, attracting $3.5 billion in September, although it had higher net sales of $4.1 billion in August [3] Investment Strategies - Financial advisors are increasingly recommending gold allocations to clients, citing its performance during crises rather than solely as an inflation hedge [5] - There is a strategic shift towards gold for market protection rather than performance enhancement, reflecting a cautious investment approach [5]

Core Insights - U.S.-listed ETFs experienced significant inflows of $138.1 billion in September, marking the strongest month of the year and surpassing August's $119.3 billion, leading to year-to-date inflows of $930.7 billion, positioning the industry to potentially exceed $1 trillion this month, which would surpass last year's record of $1.1 trillion [1] Inflows by Asset Class - U.S. equity ETFs led inflows with $65.9 billion, accounting for approximately half of total inflows, while international equity ETFs added $27.6 billion, U.S. fixed income ETFs attracted $23.9 billion, and commodities ETFs pulled in $11.2 billion [2] - The S&P 500 index saw year-to-date gains of up to 15%, and the Nasdaq-100 advanced more than 18% during September [2] Bond Market Dynamics - Bond yields decreased as the Federal Reserve cut rates for the first time this year, despite weaker economic data, with investors focusing on the Fed's policy shift and the growth in artificial intelligence [3] Top Performing ETFs - The iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) led individual ETF inflows with $18.9 billion, followed by the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) with $4.4 billion and the iShares S&P 100 ETF (OEF) with $4.3 billion, with OEF's assets nearly doubling to almost $28 billion this year [4] - The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) attracted $4.2 billion as gold prices surged to record highs near $3,900/oz, reflecting a 47% increase year-to-date, with GLD alone adding $15 billion in 2025 [5] - BlackRock's active ETFs, the iShares A.I. Innovation and Tech Active ETF (BAI) and the iShares U.S. Equity Factor Rotation Active ETF (DYNF), each garnered $3.3 billion, with BAI up 29% year-to-date and DYNF gaining 17% [6] - The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) saw inflows of $2.6 billion, boosted by falling rates and a 50-basis-point drop in the 10-year Treasury yield, with the fund up 7.5% this year [7] Outflows from ETFs - The iShares MSCI EAFE Growth ETF (EFG) led outflows with $3.8 billion, despite international equities outperforming U.S. stocks, as EFG's 20.8% year-to-date return lagged behind the broader iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA), which is up 27% [8] - Notable outflows were also observed in leveraged ETFs, including the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares (SOXL), ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ), and Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2x Shares (TSLL), indicating profit-taking by traders [9]