The SPDR Gold Shares ETF has easily outperformed Bitcoin, Nvidia, and the entire S&P 500 this year.Billionaire Ken Griffin runs Citadel Advisors, a hedge fund that outperformed the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.53%) by 7 percentage points over the last three years. Even more impressive, he is the most successful hedge fund manager in history as measured by net gains (after fees) since inception, according to LCH Investments.One of Griffin's more noteworthy trades in the third quarter was starting a position in the SPDR ...

Bank of America strategists, led by Michael Widmer, project gold could reach $5,000 per ounce in 2026, with an expected average of $4,538 per ounce for the year. This aggressive forecast is driven by unorthodox U.S. economic policies, specifically growing government deficits and national debt, which erode the dollar's purchasing power and push investors toward hard assets. While a hawkish Fed poses a risk, the bank sees fiscal pressure as the dominant, persistent force driving gold's long-term strength.This ...

This post originally appeared in the First Trade newsletter. You can sign up for Business Insider's daily markets newsletter here. It may not feel like it, but 2025 has been a record year for retail traders. It's been even busier than 2021, when GameStop mania was at its peak. Compared to last year, retail activity is up 50%. That's likely indicative of more volatility in 2025, especially the nearly 20% drawdown from February to early April. Those shifting sands gave rise to investment strategies th ...

Core Insights - 2025 has been a record year for retail traders, with activity up 50% compared to the previous year, indicating increased volatility [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - **Dip-Buying Bonanza**: Three major dip-buying events occurred in the first four months of 2025, with 75% of current stock-market positioning happening during this period, benefiting Nvidia and Tesla [2] - **ETFs Dominating**: ETFs accounted for 75% of retail-trader inflows in 2025, with a notable shift from single-stock buying to ETFs and options after February to April volatility [4] - **AI Stock Purchases**: Retail traders are selling off broader market stocks, referred to as the "SPX 470," to finance purchases of the top 30 AI stocks, leading to increased concentration in mega-cap tech names [6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - **Recent Retail Investor Behavior**: Retail investors have shown less enthusiasm for dip-buying recently, opting to stay on the sidelines during market weakness, with day traders becoming net sellers due to valuation concerns [3] - **Interest in Gold ETFs**: The SPDR Gold Shares ETF has attracted significant retail interest, coinciding with a more-than-60% surge in gold prices year-to-date [5] - **Potential Exhaustion of AI Trade**: There are concerns that the AI trade may be reaching exhaustion, which could lead to a shift in dynamics, especially with renewed valuation concerns despite strong earnings from Nvidia [7]

Core Insights - The gold mining sector is experiencing significant price increases, with GDX and GDXJ both doubling in value, while spot gold surpassed $4,000, indicating strong market performance [1][3][10] - Despite the price gains, approximately $5 billion has exited mining ETFs, suggesting that the market is under-owned and that institutional investors are taking profits rather than retail investors fully participating [1][7][45] - Central banks are major players in the gold market, consistently purchasing over 1,000 tonnes of gold annually since 2022, which is double the average of the previous decade, contributing to a structural supply-demand imbalance [11][12][45] Market Dynamics - Gold prices reached historic highs around $4,000 per ounce, with GDX and GDXJ showing year-to-date gains of 115% and 117% respectively, significantly outperforming physical gold [3][17] - The GDX/GLD ratio improved by 40.7% in 2025, indicating a stronger performance of miners relative to gold [5] - Central banks are absorbing 24-29% of annual gold output, while mine supply is only expected to grow by 1%, creating a tight supply situation [13][14] Investment Strategies - A three-tier investment strategy is proposed for retail traders, focusing on core holdings, momentum plays, and premium growth stocks [23][48] - Newmont (NEM) is highlighted as a core holding with a P/E ratio of 13.65x and significant free cash flow potential, while Barrick (B) and Agnico Eagle (AEM) are recommended for momentum and premium growth respectively [24][28][32] - Entry points and stop-loss levels are suggested for each tier to manage risk effectively [27][31][34] Technical Analysis - The technical picture shows that GDX peaked on October 16, 2025, and has since retraced about 9.8%, while GLD has also seen a slight decline [18][19] - Key support levels for GDX are identified around $59.51 and $34.58, which have not been seriously challenged during recent price movements [21] - The current pullback is viewed as a potential opportunity for disciplined buyers rather than a sign of a market breakdown [22][46] Future Outlook - The upcoming December FOMC meeting is a key event to watch, as it may influence central bank behavior regarding gold purchases [47] - The relationship between slow supply growth and steady official demand is expected to persist, providing a favorable environment for gold miners [45][49]

Core Insights - Carr Financial Group Corp disclosed an increase in its holdings of Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF by 78,520 shares, valued at approximately $6.09 million, bringing total holdings to 416,423 shares worth $30.97 million as of Q3 2025 [1][2][3] Investment Position - The purchase of Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) now constitutes 8.5% of Carr Financial's reportable assets under management (AUM) [3][7] - BND remains the top holding in Carr Financial's portfolio, which includes other significant ETFs [3][6] ETF Performance Metrics - As of October 7, 2025, BND shares were priced at $74.28, reflecting a 0.47% increase over the past year, but underperforming the S&P 500 by 12.62 percentage points [3][4] - The ETF has a dividend yield of 3.76% and net assets amounting to $374.4 billion as of September 30, 2025 [4][5] Broader Investment Strategy - Carr Financial's bond exposure has slightly increased, with a notable purchase of $10.14 million in SPDR Gold Shares ETF, indicating a shift towards defensive investments [6][9] - The firm's defensive investments rose from nearly 14% of its portfolio in Q2 to 20% by the end of Q3 2025 [9] Other Holdings - Carr Financial also increased its position in Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF to $25.74 million and holds significant investments in emerging market equities through iShares Msci Emerging Markets Ex China ETF [7][10]

Group 1 - The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), the world's largest gold-focused exchange-traded fund, reached record trading levels [2] - GLD also achieved its highest relative strength index reading on record on Monday [2] - The ETF has been listed since November 2004 and has shown significant performance growth [2]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Gold prices have surged over 50% this year, reaching an all-time high of $4,179.48 per ounce on October 14, driven by political turmoil and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][9] - The increase in gold prices reflects cautious sentiment among institutional and retail investors regarding economic growth, particularly due to rising tensions between the U.S. and China [2][3] - Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut by 25 basis points in October and November have weakened the U.S. dollar, further boosting gold prices as investors seek stability [4][6] Group 2: Central Bank Activity - Central banks globally are increasing their gold holdings to diversify reserves and reduce risks, which is expected to sustain the upward trend in gold prices over the next 12 months [5] - The U.S. dollar has experienced its worst decline in 50 years during the first half of the year, making gold more cost-effective for investors [6] Group 3: Company Performance - Newmont Corporation is a major gold producer with a projected earnings growth rate of 58.1% for the current year, driven by higher gold prices and successful growth projects [8] - Kinross Gold is also advancing its projects with an expected earnings growth rate of 111.8% for the current year, benefiting from the rising gold prices [11] - Both Newmont and Kinross Gold are positioned to see significant profit margins as gold prices continue to rise, with Goldman Sachs predicting gold could reach $4,900 per ounce by 2026 [7][9] Group 4: Investment Vehicles - The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has gained over 50% in the past year and is designed to mimic the price of gold, offering storage and liquidity advantages [13] - Newmont and Kinross Gold currently hold a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), while GLD has a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [14]

Core Insights - Gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are witnessing unprecedented demand, with SPDR Gold Shares ETF recording its second-highest trading volume ever at $12.5 billion on October 9, indicating a significant surge in investor interest in gold [1][2] - The trading volume of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF has surpassed that of most major tech stocks, reflecting a notable capital rotation in financial markets [2] - Gold prices have increased dramatically, rising nearly 57% over the past year and recently surpassing the $4,000 per ounce threshold, with a new all-time high of $4,179.71 [3] Market Trends - The robust performance of gold and silver is significantly outpacing traditional equities, with silver prices up 68% in 2025, trading above $50 per ounce for the first time since 1980 [3] - Central banks are increasingly accumulating gold and silver, with the Saudi Central Bank purchasing $28.5 million worth of silver in August, marking a shift in global currency dynamics [4] - Foreign investors now hold more gold than U.S. Treasuries, with the share of U.S. Treasuries held by foreign entities dropping from 49% in 2013 to 31% today, indicating a reevaluation of global safe havens [5]

Core Insights - Gold has experienced a significant price increase, rising approximately 57% as of October 13, 2025, and is on track for its best annual return since at least 1988 [1][2] - The price of gold surpassed $4,000 per ounce, trading near $4,100, driven by factors such as the U.S. government shutdown and rising tensions with China [2][5] Economic Factors - The ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown has created economic uncertainty, prompting investors to seek gold as a safe haven asset [3][4] - The shutdown has delayed key economic data releases, leading to market expectations of a 97% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which typically supports gold prices [4] Geopolitical Influences - Increased tensions between the U.S. and China, particularly regarding export restrictions on rare earth metals, have further fueled demand for gold [5] Analyst Predictions - Bank of America has raised its gold price forecast for 2026 to $5,000, while also cautioning about a potential near-term correction [6][7] - Goldman Sachs has set a target of $4,900 for gold by the end of 2026, citing inflows to Western gold ETFs and central bank purchases as key drivers [8] Investment Vehicles - SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has returned over 55% year-to-date, providing a straightforward way for investors to gain exposure to gold [12] - VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has outperformed gold with a return of about 134% in 2025, benefiting from the profitability of gold producers [15] - VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) delivered a 146% return in 2025, focusing on smaller, more speculative gold mining companies [17] Market Conditions - The decline in West Texas Intermediate crude prices by around 17% in 2025 has provided cost relief for miners, contributing to the outperformance of gold mining ETFs [19] - Despite potential near-term volatility, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, supported by macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical tensions [19][20]