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瑞银:中国车企在欧洲加速发展 -是时候担忧了
瑞银· 2025-06-23 13:15
Investment Rating - The investment ratings for Stellantis, Renault, and Volkswagen are all rated as Neutral [4][49]. BMW is rated as Buy [49]. Core Insights - Chinese OEMs have increased their market share in Europe to 6%, with 11% in the EV segment, indicating a significant acceleration in their presence [2][29]. - The report highlights that the focus of Chinese brands has shifted towards the mass market, particularly in the entry segment, which is less profitable for incumbent OEMs [2][3]. - Stellantis is identified as the most vulnerable to competition from Chinese brands, followed by Renault and Volkswagen, particularly in the A/B segments where they have high exposure [4][6]. Summary by Sections Market Share and Competition - Chinese brands are correcting past mistakes and expanding their offerings, achieving notable success in Spain and Italy, where they hold a cumulative market share of 9% [3][14]. - The entry segment under €25k is particularly attractive for Chinese brands, as legacy brands have reduced their offerings in this price range [3][30]. Company-Specific Analysis - Stellantis has the highest exposure to the competitive threat from Chinese brands, especially in Italy and Spain, where their market share is significant [4][21]. - Volkswagen has benefited from Tesla's recent weaknesses, with a 59% year-on-year increase in Q1 BEV sales, primarily in the corporate fleet segment [4][29]. - BMW is expected to benefit from strong EV demand, particularly with the launch of the Neue Klasse and the iX3, which offers an unprecedented range and fast charging capabilities [4][30]. Future Outlook - The potential replacement of EU EV import tariffs with minimum pricing could intensify competition for affordable BEVs from Chinese manufacturers [2][30]. - The report anticipates that the growing strength of Chinese brands in the entry segment could pose challenges for Volkswagen's upcoming models, such as the ID.2 and ID.1 [4][30].